Posted on 09/15/2007 3:27:52 PM PDT by camerakid400
BAGHDAD (AFP) — The killing of one of his key Iraqi allies on the day he announced a troop pullout from Iraq came as a stark reminder to US President George W. Bush of just how precarious the situation still is in Iraq.
Political analysts believe the country will unravel even further, hastened by Bush's decision to withdraw some 21,500 combat troops by next July.
The withdrawal, they warn, is likely to reinforce the power struggle between the country's political factions, sectarian militia and ethnic groups.
"I think the civil war will start. It will escalate," said Joost Hiltermann, Middle East director of the independent think-tank International Crisis Group.
The assassination on Thursday of Sheikh Abdul Sattar Abu Reesha in Iraq's western Anbar province exposed the perilous situation in Iraq, despite frequent assurances by the US military that matters are improving.
The murder of the sheikh who shook hands with Bush 10 days earlier also showed how little Washington can do to protect its allies.
It was timed to send shockwaves just a few hours before Bush went on national television to announce the first stages of the troop withdrawal, due to begin before the end of this month.
The decision, which only partially satisfied Bush's opponents in Congress who want a far speedier retreat, is limited but still carries risks.
"The surge has managed to control the civil war," Hiltermann told AFP, referring to the extra 28,500 US troops deployed in Iraq since February in a bid to quell the sectarian fighting that has killed thousands of Iraqis.
For Hiltermann, there is no doubt that Iraq will slide into civil war if a total withdrawal of American forces begins.
"It will be Shiite-Sunni, it will be inter-Shiite and it will be Arab-Kurd," he predicted.
In an indication of the political tensions prevailing despite the efforts of the Americans, Iraq's northern Kurdish administration, an ally of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, has demanded the oil minister be sacked for "meddling" in regional affairs.
"The Iraq government has not utilized the time given by the surge," said Hiltermann. "Even the Bush administration has no political strategy (for Iraq)."
Analyst Said Abu Rish, author of a number of books on Iraq, believes that reconciliation in Iraq cannot take place within the shadow of a US occupation.
The assassination of Sheikh Abu Reesha and the announcement of the beginning of the US troop withdrawal, leave Iraq's political scenario even more uncertain and the country even more at risk, he contends.
"The troop reduction will endanger the government and to stay in office it may have to field its own militias or death squads," Abu Rish told AFP.
"Sunnis must have one identifiable leader otherwise divided between many they will lose," he added, stressing however that Sunnis are indispensible to the running of Iraq.
At the same time, he believes, the main beneficiary of a US troop withdrawal will be radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, head of the country's most powerful Shiite militia.
"Sadr will benefit from any withdrawal. He has covered all the bases -- the Shiites, the anti-Americans, the unity of the country, good relations with Iran, the biggest militia," said Abu Rish.
A vision of an increasingly fractured Iraq is shared by another Iraq specialist, Adel Darwish, a well-known Middle East columnist.
"The anti-American forces within Iraq, especially Iran and the Iran-backed militia among the Shiites, do understand the domestic pressures President Bush is facing and will try to exploit it to the full," he said.
For him, the Iraqi government will gravitate more and more towards Sadr, a longtime foe of the Americans but who recently called a six-month halt to his militia activities.
"Maliki is likely to strike a deal with Moqtada if it becomes clear to him that the Americans are going home and he will be left at the mercy of the Iranian-backed militia," said Darwish.
At the same time, the Americans are pushing for Maliki to secure a political reconciliation that will include the Sunni minority.
"The Americans' smart card would be to tell Maliki either Sunnis share power or he will be left on his own. But will the Americans have the guts and be clever enough to outsmart Maliki?" asked Darwish.
AFP must have a maximum competence level that can not be exceeded for employment. That maximum must be set to several degrees of idiocy lower than the assumed idiocy level of their audience.
This guy is about as clued in as that AFP retard that showed an unexploded old soviet 152mm artillery shell as proof of a US cruise missile strike on some poor old innocent Paki guy that had invited the leadership of AQ to dinner, just to be nice.
time for al-sadr’s face to appear on a phutball, preferably one on a Hail Mary pass, LOL
Common sense will tell you that if we pull out - we’ve lost.
President Bush told the Democrats-—we ain’t pulling out, we are there to stay. Period. Get used to it.
Talk about completely missing the point. I don't know what will happen in this "Iraq" place, but the point is that it will give (D) politicians a nice plank in their platform for years to come. And that's the important thing.
I’m kinda confused.
I read the article as being strongly against troop pullout, and pro-surge. How is that gonna help dems?
Bush is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t.
I was being facetious.
To be honest I'm not sure it will help (D)s to bring about a dishonorable troop withdrawal. What I am sure of, is that they think it will, which is the only reason they even care about this in the first place.
The killing of one of his key Iraqi allies on the day he announced a troop pullout from Iraq came as a stark reminder to US President George W. Bush of just how precarious the situation still is in Iraq.
Political analysts believe the country will unravel even further, hastened by Bush's decision to withdraw some 21,500 combat troops by next July.
...
The murder of the sheikh who shook hands with Bush 10 days earlier also showed how little Washington can do to protect its allies.
It was timed to send shockwaves just a few hours before Bush went on national television to announce the first stages of the troop withdrawal, due to begin before the end of this month.
And it adds in some of the usual "Bush as no plan" by some euroer "expert" and ends up with the usual snark about Amerians being too stupid to see the obvious (his remark about playing Maliki at the end of his blather)
A lot of things are possible. At the moment Iraq is not unravelled even if the Gov't is taking care of such things as oil revenue distribution without the bother of formal legislation.
It looks to me like the headline tells the real story about what the dems want - it’s all about tying defeat in Iraq to Bush. If the war is still going on and they happen to get back in the WH in 2008 - then the end of the war is going to be their problem .. AND THEY DON’T WANT IT BECAUSE THEY ARE TOO COWARDLY TO FIGHT THEM.
It’s all about the 2000 election and the fact that Bush would not allow the dems to steal the election from him. Gore NEVER WON!! And .. the drive-by media proved that BUSH WON!! But .. the lefty media still drags that story out every chance they get. It’s the left’s reason for the Bush derangement syndrome.
We SHOULD pull out of Iraq
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points to tagline
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