Victor Davis Hanson: Iraqi Questions [on abrupt turn-around in the once "Triangle of Death"]

NRO Corner ^ | October 09, 2007 | Victor Davis Hanson

[Tolik]

I think Rich Lowry would agree that we both had an informative week in Iraq in and around Baghdad, Anbar, and Diyala. Many thanks to the efforts of Major Rayburn and Col. McMaster who allowed us to accompany them on their visits in Baghdad, Anbar, and Diyala — and a special thanks to some thoughtful air personnel that allowed both of us to reach Kuwait as scheduled despite unforeseen challenges.

Mystery surrounds all the reasons for the abrupt turn-around in the once “Triangle of Death”—

* and whether it will continue;

* whether the Shiite government can be prodded to be magnanimous in victory and let reconstruction funds flow into the Sunni provinces;

* how well with Iraqis we can chase and hunt down al Qaeda as it flees the cities and heads for smaller provincial villages;

* how fast the Iraqi army can begin to take up the role of a truly national army and protect national borders, leaving internal security to the local and national police;

* how well local tribal self-defense forces can be incorporated into state governance;

* how former high-ranking Baathist insurgents can be transformed from allies against al Qaeda to supporters of constitutional government in which they now form a distinct minority;

* and what will be the general level of long-term U.S. presence critical to monitor this growing progress.

All these issues are on the minds of officers, from Gen. Petraeus on down, who are cautiously optimistic but understand in the current volatility the dangers of overconfidence — especially given the heartbreak of past reconstruction and the military’s sometimes less than candid public appraisal in 2004 of the setbacks. In addition, they suspect that al Qaeda/Iraq must do something spectacular and soon, or otherwise it is going to lose, and lose badly. Many seem braced for even more such planned horrors to erode American public opinion and demoralize Iraqis before the terrorists meet oblivion.

The result may be that the news coverage of the sudden turnaround is lagging behind rapidly changing events on the ground, which, as in all wars, explode sometimes without warning and immediate full appreciation.

One thought in this context. It is of course true that the surge is working and our soldiers are far more sophisticated than in 2003. But in all the places one visits, there are reminders everywhere — pockmarked walls, rubble, memorial photos in bases — of all those killed during the worst ordeal between 2003-6. When one walks through these former battlefields, there is an eerie melancholy, a ghostly archaeology, a sense that now unnamed and largely anonymous Americans paid the ultimate price in those years to allow the opportunities we witness today. And that’s why we must continue and finish the job they started.



We at home really either chose not to follow the daily pulse of the battlefield, or our media finds it less lucrative or politically correct, or our leaders either don’t have the skill or the desire to get the American people engaged.

It’s a pity because we might well be witnessing an historic change in Iraq that would have profound effects throughout the region. The Iraqis are just beginning to step up effectively to their own defense, and are reaching out to the Americans-rather than solely vice versa as was mostly true between 2003-6. The result is that in a once frightening place like Ramadi — declared “beyond repair” in 9/06 in a sober and carefully written Marine intelligence report — Marine casualties have plummeted, reconstruction is underway, and everyone seems to be a bit dazed about the sudden calm after the horrific past storm — and whether it will continue.

Another impression: We had briefings and conversations with dozens of majors, LTCs, and colonels, who are forced to make decisions, often on the frontlines, that would normally be reserved for mayors of large cities or governors of vast states or those with rank of 2- or 3- star general in peacetime.

They understand the race against time they are in to achieve radical progress in the war to maintain enough public support to finish the reconstruction. In general, their level of education and sobriety seem on par with — or far superior to — civilian politicians here in the states with commensurate responsibility. A Col. Burton, Funk, Gibbs, Gibson, Hickey, Horvath, Kershaw, MacFarland, Mansoor, or McMaster — to mention just a few of those we met — are rare national assets in these very dangerous years ahead.

Few in 2001 talked much about conventional Army and Marine ground forces, after the non-traditionally-waged war against the Taliban. Perhaps somehow the nation forgot just how unusual these officers are who have advanced degrees, write books and articles, and daily expose themselves to death in a myriad of frightening and unforeseen ways — or how professional the soldiers are under their command.

We would all benefit from a news segment or special on the “colonels’ war” in Iraq that would introduce these rare individuals to the public eye.
 

[Tolik]

More from his trip to Iraq:

Victor Davis Hanson: Observations about the war. Impressions of Iraq
pajamasmedia.com ^ | October 6 and 7, 2007

[Tolik]

    Victor Davis Hanson Ping ! 

       Let me know if you want in or out.

Links:    FR Index of his articles:  http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=victordavishanson
                His website: http://victorhanson.com/
                NRO archive: http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson-archive.asp
                Pajamasmedia:   http://victordavishanson.pajamasmedia.com/

[genghis]

coulter, thomas sowell and vdh should have children together.

[longtermmemmory]

I think we need to know how much of this is simple bribes to the tribal leaders and how much is fear of american bullets.

[Sword_Svalbardt]

Talking about boosting the gene pool!

[wizr]

Thanks. We need our soldiers to come home and “sweep” our own streets of the invasive evil walking them.

Maybe, just maybe, it is time again for a military leader as Commander in Chief. One that commands attention from the public as well.

Our tax and spend Congress needs to be shaken, not stirred, by a leader that cares about us “troops” on the line, not votes or a war chest.

I don’t mean a military dictator, or a growth oriented leader, as, I feel, President Eisenhower was.

I would like to see someone in charge that will make decisions, and not just stand behind them, but push them forward, as in our border fence and the elimination of all illegals from our country, including our overcrowded prisons.

Let’s send them all out for their home countries to deal with. The influx must be stopped, as we are doing in Iraq.

Then, maybe we can become a peaceful nation again.

[AFPhys]

VDH may be the most astute writer about Iraq who exists in the universe. I’m glad he shares with us.

[patriciaruth]

how much of this is simple bribes to the tribal leaders and how much is fear of american bullets.

It is mostly credited to fear of and disgust with the wholesale butchery of al Qaida in Iraq.

The tribal sheiks began the movement known as Anbar Awakening when they decided to switch sides and to support the Americans in getting rid of the evil al Qaida foreign terrorists who were killing their people and trying to enforce their brand of harsh Sharia law. They had their young men sign up for the police jobs after lengthy negotiations with the Col. McFarland, who spoke Arabic and was a great innovator in insurgent strategy before he was killed.

[patriciaruth]

Correction:
McFarland is in charge now. The one who did the negotiations and was killed was Cap Travis Patriquin.

“It was Army Cap. Travis Patriquin, formerly of Lockport, has been uniquely honored after completing three combat tours of duty in the Middle East during the last decade.

“Patriquin, 32, was killed by a roadside bomb in December.

“The police station in Tameen, a district in Ramadi, Iraq, recently was named after the fallen army captain.

“I consider it an honor,” said his father, Gary Patriquin, last week. He added that his son always wanted to be in the Army and was honored to serve his country.

“Because of Patriquin’s ability to speak other languages, such as Spanish, Portuguese, several Central American Indian dialects and Arabic, he was able to conversationally communicate with everyday civilians, his father said.

“With his knowledge of Arabic, Patriquin built a strong relationship with Sheik Abdul-Sattar Abu Risha during conversations about history, religion and culture in Ramadi, which was considered Iraq’s deadliest city.”