Gimme Shelter

Question: I’m thinking of a policy proposal that could easily mean the difference between life and death for tens or hundreds of thousands–conceivably even millions–of Americans who are alive at this very moment. Each year that passes magnifies the urgency of the problem this policy would address. Experts on both sides of the political spectrum appear to agree on both the pressing need for reform, and on the appropriate way to meet the challenge. Yet in our public debates we hear virtually nothing of this issue. What am I thinking of?

Answer: Nuclear fallout shelters. This country needs to develop a system of fallout shelters and emergency drills, much like the old Cold War "duck and cover" drills. In "Our Fallout-Shelter Future," I discussed a proposal by Stephen Peter Rosen, a conservative-leaning foreign policy expert, to bring back fallout shelters and drills. Now, in an important article in The Washington Quarterly entitled "The Day After: Action Following a Nuclear Blast in a U.S. City [PDF]," two key officials of the Clinton administration, Secretary of Defense William Perry, Assistant Secretary of Defense, Ashton Carter, and a former director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Michael M. May, make the same case. It’s noteworthy that Rosen’s article appeared in the left-leaning journal, Foreign Policy, while the former Clinton administration officials have published in a right-leaning journal. This highlights the bipartisan nature of the recommendations.

Both articles make the point that the key objection to our Cold War shelter and drill programs no longer applies. By the end of the Cold War, attempts to stave off nuclear holocaust with drills and shelters looked ridiculous. With thousands of massive warheads pointed at America’s major cities, a significant nuclear exchange would have meant total national devastation.

Things are different now. Sometime over the next couple of decades, we face the reasonable likelihood of a single small-to-moderate-sized nuclear blast in one, or a few, American cities. These are precisely the circumstances in which fallout shelters, drills, and well-worked-out evacuation and communication plans can make a difference. If there are good arguments against moving in this direction, I haven’t heard them. What’s clear is that, at a minimum, we need to have a national discussion of this issue. At the moment, these two articles seem to me to make a compelling case for action.

Huntsville hunkers down with largest shelter system in the nation
By Jay Reeves
Associated Press
Sunday, September 30, 2007

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. -- In an age of al-Qaida, sleeper cells and the threat of nuclear terrorism, Huntsville is dusting off its Cold War manual to create the nation's most ambitious fallout-shelter plan, featuring an abandoned mine big enough for 20,000 people to take cover underground.

Others would hunker down in college dorms, churches, libraries and research halls that planners hope will bring the community's shelter capacity to 300,000, or space for every man, woman and child in Huntsville and the surrounding county.

Emergency planners in Huntsville -- best known as the home of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center -- say the idea makes sense because radioactive fallout could be scattered for hundreds of miles if terrorists detonated a nuclear bomb.

"If Huntsville is in the blast zone, there's not much we can do. But if it's just fallout ... shelters would absorb 90 percent of the radiation," said longtime emergency management planner Kirk Paradise.

Huntsville's project, developed using a $70,000 Homeland Security grant, goes against the grain, as the United States scrapped its fallout shelter plan after the Soviet Union's collapse. Congress cut funding, and the government published its last shelter list in 1992.

After Sept. 11, Homeland Security created a metropolitan protection program that includes nuclear-attack preparation and mass shelters. But no other city has taken the idea as far as Huntsville has, officials said.

Many cities advise residents to stay at home and seal up a room with plastic and duct tape during a biological, chemical or nuclear attack. Huntsville does too, in certain cases.

Local officials agree the "shelter-in-place" method would be best for a "dirty bomb" that scattered nuclear contamination through conventional explosives. But full-fledged shelters would be needed for a nuclear bomb.

Huntsville program leaders recently briefed members of Congress, including Rep. Charlie Dent, R-Pa., who called the city's shelter plan an example of the "all-hazards" approach needed for emergency preparedness.

"Al-Qaida, we know, is interested in a nuclear capability. It's our nation's fear that a nuclear weapon could get into terrorists' hands," Dent said.

In all, the Huntsville-Madison County Emergency Management Agency has found 105 places that can be used as fallout shelters for about 210,000 people. They still seek about 50 more shelters for an additional 100,000 people.

While officials have yet to launch a campaign to inform people of the shelters, a local access TV channel showed a video about the program, which also is explained on a county Web site.

If a bomb went off tomorrow, Paradise said, officials would tell people where to find shelter via TV and radio. "We're pretty much ready to go because we have a list of shelters," he said.

Most shelters would offer more comfort than the abandoned mine, such as buildings at the University of Alabama in Huntsville that would house 37,643.

Plans call for staying inside for as long as two weeks after a bomb blast, though shelters might be needed for only a few hours in a less dire emergency.

Unlike the fallout shelters set up during the Cold War, the new ones will not be stocked with water, food or other supplies. For survivors of a nuclear attack, it would be strictly "BYOE" -- bring your own everything.

Funny joke, but in reality those old “duck and cover” tactics could save lives.

The main danger from a nuclear bomb is — believe it or not — flying glass and debris. The blast and radiation emitted directly by the explosion will only kill those unlucky enough to be within a two- to three-mile-wide circle centered on the Ground Zero. Those outside this circle of destruction will not be endangered by the blast itself, but by “missile damage”, i.e. injuries caused by the flying debris created by the blast. Since flying debris is also the main source of danger in a tornado strike, the same tactics used to survive a twister can be used to survive a nuke.

The big difference between a tornado and a nuclear explosion is the fireball created at the moment of the explosion. When a nuclear bomb goes off, the air around the bomb is heated and compressed to levels resembling those found on the top layer of the sun. This “fireball” of superheated air then re-emits all that energy as light (the flash — like an ultra-intense photo flash) and heat (the thermal pulse — like opening a super-hot oven door). Human beings exposed to the flash can be temporarily or permanently blinded by it; those exposed to the thermal pulse can suffer crippling burns over the exposed areas. The only way to remain uninjured by these phenomena is to have something between You and the fireball — either miles and miles of distance (the best option) or some solid object.

With this in mind, it’s easy to see the logic behind the duck & cover routine. The instant one sees the flash of the explosion, one ducks — turning the head and eyes away from the blinding fireball and dropping to the floor to reduce the body’s exposure to its heat, then covers — getting behind and/or inside some solid object to protect oneself from the flying debris created by the blast. Once under cover, one curls up tightly (to present as small a “target” as possible), covering one’s face and neck with the arms to guard against flying glass and debris. (It’s important to remember that even the thinnest cover will help protect against the heat pulse — by putting the fabric of one’s clothing, a blanket, or even a newspaper page over any exposed skin, one greatly reduces the chance of a dangerous burn.) Once in the duck & cover position, one then “rides out” the blast and the subsequent rain of debris.

Once debris has stopped falling, the next concern is radiation from fallout. Fallout is dust and other solids that have been made radioactive by the explosion. Particles of fallout emit highly penetrating radiation called gamma rays, which are similar to X-rays. (As with X-rays, gamma rays are harmful to the human body; the more time one is exposed to them, the more damage done.) Fallout from a surface level blast emits a lot of radiation and can kill or permanenty injure those exposed to it, and it will begin settling back to earth within 10-20 minutes of the explosion. The best way to avoid fallout danger is to get away from it (i.e. evacuate the area); however, if this is not possible, the next best idea is to put as much mass (i.e. heavy material) between oneself and the fallout outside. This is where fallout shelters can play a vital role. An individual staying in a shelter for 10-14 days after an explosion will be shielded from almost all of the harmful radiation from the fallout, and will suffer no ill effects from same.

Duck & cover might seem silly, but rest assured, it only seems that way. Remembering to duck & cover could very well save your life one day.

"...Anybody remember the Super Dome?..."

Are you referring to the breakdown of human social structures after a disaster? The thin veneer of society was ripped away in the hurricane, reducing people to their basest element, but you gotta take into account the society that existed BEFORE the disaster: A lot of humans in that area were already displaying their "basest element".

I am too young to remember the "Duck and Cover" drills and nuclear paranoia, but as a youth I weas fascinated by old movies and TV shows, in particular The Twilight Zone. There were many episodes that revolved around nuclear war and it's aftermath. (four that I can think of). It was creepy for me, as a 12 year old, to suddenly acknowledge that all the people around me would be comtetitors for resources after the bomb dropped, and that our society was, indeed, a thin veneer. It affected my worldview as a child and even now.

Also, the Twilight Zone episode with Burgess Meredith taught me to always have an extra pair of glasses on hand.

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