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Economists Fear Weak Demand For Homeownership Will Fester
Wall Street Journal ^
| 27 October 2007
| MICHAEL CORKERY
Posted on 10/27/2007 7:03:24 AM PDT by shrinkermd
Edited on 10/27/2007 7:40:24 AM PDT by Admin Moderator.
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To: shrinkermd
There will be weak demand for housing for at least 3-5 years. And prices will need to drop by 50% (or wages increase by 100%)
2
posted on
10/27/2007 7:04:36 AM PDT
by
2banana
(My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
To: shrinkermd
Drop baby drop!
Deport a few more illegals and prices will go down further.
Yes, I am waiting to buy a house in late 2008 when the mother of all ARM resets should have crested, resulting in a further depression of housing prices.
3
posted on
10/27/2007 7:10:27 AM PDT
by
ikka
To: shrinkermd
I wonder when the Chicken Little hysteric in the US Drive By Media will finally recognize the utter stupidity of making these sorts of doom and gloom predictions time after time after time. These sorts of forecasts NEVER are even close to accurate. Just as the good news never turns out to never be as good as promised, these bad news predictions in the Junk Media always turn out to be vastly overstated.
How about the Junk Media quit hyping the news and manufacturing imaginary crises and simply go back to straight forward REPORTING of the facts.
4
posted on
10/27/2007 7:11:23 AM PDT
by
MNJohnnie
(Yo Democrats, You don't tell us how to wage war, we will not tell you how to be the village idiots.)
To: shrinkermd
Economists say You have to subscribe to read the article. Does this "reporter" actually name the economists and quote them fully or are we just suppose to accept his word for what they are saying?
5
posted on
10/27/2007 7:13:19 AM PDT
by
MNJohnnie
(Yo Democrats, You don't tell us how to wage war, we will not tell you how to be the village idiots.)
To: shrinkermd
I doubt that very seriously. People right now are playing chicken with the market.
6
posted on
10/27/2007 7:18:03 AM PDT
by
Perdogg
(Join the NCAA basketball thread - Freemail me - Go tarheels!)
To: 2banana
And prices will need to drop by 50% True, if you look at the value of a home twenty years ago and calculated it's value based upon the time and value of money during the same period of time and you would be close to what current market value should be.
7
posted on
10/27/2007 7:20:43 AM PDT
by
org.whodat
(What's the difference between a Democrat and a republican????)
To: shrinkermd
The population is still GROWING and people have to live somewhere.
8
posted on
10/27/2007 7:22:53 AM PDT
by
Don Corleone
(Leave the gun..take the cannoli)
To: org.whodat
True, if you look at the value of a home twenty years ago and calculated it's value based upon the time and value of money during the same period of time and you would be close to what current market value should be. 1. Homes - on average - historically barley beat inflation 2. Homes (and all buildings) are a depreciating asset 3. Homes - historically - were priced at about 3x the prevailing wage.
9
posted on
10/27/2007 7:24:18 AM PDT
by
2banana
(My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
To: org.whodat
True, if you look at the value of a home twenty years ago and calculated it's value based upon the time and value of money during the same period of time and you would be close to what current market value should be. 1. Homes - on average - historically barley beat inflation 2. Homes (and all buildings) are a depreciating asset 3. Homes - historically - were priced at about 3x the prevailing wage.
10
posted on
10/27/2007 7:24:19 AM PDT
by
2banana
(My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
To: org.whodat
True, if you look at the value of a home twenty years ago and calculated it's value based upon the time and value of money during the same period of time and you would be close to what current market value should be. 1. Homes - on average - historically barley beat inflation 2. Homes (and all buildings) are a depreciating asset 3. Homes - historically - were priced at about 3x the prevailing wage.
11
posted on
10/27/2007 7:24:20 AM PDT
by
2banana
(My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
To: MNJohnnie
Just as the good news never turns out to never be as good as promised, these bad news predictions in the Junk Media always turn out to be vastly overstated. The housing market has actually been worse than what was predicted since last year. The gov't and National Association of Realtors estimates have been revised downward (as in bad) nearly every month during the last year.
12
posted on
10/27/2007 7:26:36 AM PDT
by
am452
(If you don't stand behind our troops feel free to stand in front of them!!)
To: Don Corleone
The population is still GROWING and people have to live somewhere. Apartments
13
posted on
10/27/2007 7:27:39 AM PDT
by
am452
(If you don't stand behind our troops feel free to stand in front of them!!)
To: Don Corleone
The population is still GROWING and people have to live somewhere. Builders put up about two million more homes than are needed right now. Illegals getting no-doc loans were filling some of that gap - now we'll just have to wait until demand catches up with supply.
14
posted on
10/27/2007 7:37:57 AM PDT
by
Mr. Jeeves
("Wise men don't need to debate; men who need to debate are not wise." -- Tao Te Ching)
To: shrinkermd
Economists Fear Weak Demand For Homeownership Will Fester
To: 2banana
"...prices will need to drop by 50%" Nonsense! No one can possibly know when the supply/demand equation will come into balance. Homes in fact ARE selling albeit at a slower pace then they are being put on the market. People may just stop listing their homes in a market like this and that happening the over all supply shrinks ans prices begin to rise. There is not necessarily a lack of demand as much as people playing a wait and see game to see how low prices will go. As soon as the sheeple perceive prices are not heading lower they will en mass flood the market. One thing I will predict though. When buyers do jump back into the market this R.E. downturn will reverse as quickly as it came on us and prices for homes will again leap. There will a pent up demand needing to be satisfied. How long will that take? No one knows, all we all can know is it will happen.
To: shrinkermd
I'm wondering how the devastating fires in Southern California will affect the housing market there. People who have lost their homes need to find a place to live, and soon. Re-building takes time, especially in areas where the permit process is long and involved.
I may be totally wrong, but I can envision a scenario where people who have been burned out will take their insurance money and buy existing properties that have been languishing on the market.
To: Eagles Talon IV
"...prices will need to drop by 50%" Nonsense! No one can possibly know when the supply/demand equation will come into balance.
Of course no one can predict the future. However - we can look at historical averages (rent/purchase or income/house price) and see how things will eventually have to change.
BTW - I am talking real dollars. If housing prices stay the same in price for 10 years - that is about a 50% reduction in price due to inflation.
18
posted on
10/27/2007 8:00:32 AM PDT
by
2banana
(My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
To: shrinkermd
As pleased as I am to see the housing bubble burst (and I am thrilled, believe me) this part “...the percentage of people who own their homes continued to decline...” strikes me as overstated. It may have indeed declined, but I can’t imagine it has delcined very much at all.
19
posted on
10/27/2007 8:34:10 AM PDT
by
jocon307
(The Silent Majority - silent no longer)
To: Eagles Talon IV
When buyers do jump back into the market this R.E. downturn will reverse as quickly as it came on us and prices for homes will again leap. Generally that does not happen. During most RE downturns and the subsequent turnaround the prices came back slowy but steady. It happened in Texas in the '80's and Ca in the 90's. In both areas it took 8-10 years for prices to recover.
20
posted on
10/27/2007 8:51:21 AM PDT
by
am452
(If you don't stand behind our troops feel free to stand in front of them!!)
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