Interesting. I’m not up on the mechanics of all this. When you say he NEEDS second place in IA and NH, etc, to make it to Super Tuesday, do you mean he literally MUST? Do you get elimated without getting a certain number of delegates along the way?
At some point, someone has to present any scenario that has Fred winning a big bunch of delegates without CA, FL, CT, NJ, PA, IA, and NH. I don't see where they come from---but even if he wins, say, NC, GA, AL, AZ, Rudy will still be winning some and adding to those huge delegate counts he already has. There is one bonus for Fred if he wins a bunch of "red" states vs. CT and NY and CA, which is the "super delegates" are extra delegates awarded to states that went Republican in the last presidential election.