Posted on 10/29/2007 3:03:53 AM PDT by billorites
As John McCain gambles on a comeback, his presidential campaign is confronting a key question: Should the candidate place his last few chips on one square or two?
There is no question where McCain faces his do-or-die moment. It is here in New Hampshire, the stage for the Arizonan’s most triumphant moment in national politics — his 19-point thumping of George W. Bush in the GOP primary in 2000. Within his cash-starved, organization-depleted campaign, there is uniform agreement that a repeat victory is imperative.
But agreement breaks down over Iowa. One side holds that the candidate should minimize his resources in the first caucus state, just as he did in 2000, and devote maximum effort to the Granite State, where he is running third in polls. The other believes there is no way McCain can win New Hampshire unless he performs at least credibly in Iowa, arguing that he should continue to spend significant time and resources there.
That he is even facing an Iowa-New Hampshire trade-off reflects the pallid state of McCain’s campaign. With more debt than he has cash on hand, the campaign is facing yet another stark choice: Take out a massive loan, or accept federal matching funds and the spending limitations that come with them. In both parties in the cash-flush 2008 cycle, the decision to accept federal funds is perceived as a de facto acknowledgment of second-tier status.
“I’m playing that hand I’ve been dealt,” McCain said in a telephone interview, adding that he has “meetings and discussions” on his financial options all the time.
“We haven’t ruled it out,” he said of taking public dollars. “There has been an uptick in fundraising, but is there enough of an uptick?”
Reviewing his overall position, McCain said, “We’re by no means in great shape, [but] we have seen some progress.”
For now, McCain’s team is looking to play in both Iowa and New Hampshire, even as it has aggressively pared staff in other places and the candidate is flying commercial to save money.
McCain recently spent tens of thousands of dollars on one mail piece to more than 100,000 potential Iowa caucus-goers, and he’s sending another one this week. His campaign is interviewing to hire more staff and will have more than 12 aides in Iowa by the end of the month. And McCain himself is now regularly visiting a state that — with no more private jets at his command — isn’t easy to reach. He has been there three days this week and will be back for four more in early November.
This makes some McCain backers nervous. They worry that every day or dollar spent in Iowa dilutes his strength here.
“I don’t really care where he shows in Iowa,” said Steve Duprey, a former New Hampshire state GOP chairman and longtime McCain loyalist. “I hope he does well, but he can and needs to win New Hampshire.”
“New Hampshire is the whole deal,” agreed Mike Dennehy, McCain’s New Hampshire-based national political director who has pushed to direct resources to the Granite State.
But it may not be so simple. There is a feeling among some of the senator’s top aides that Iowa remains unsettled and that many voters there haven’t decided on a candidate yet. With some effort, this thinking goes, they could potentially compete in a financially prudent way in a contest where there is a universe of 100,000 or fewer caucus-goers.
One McCain backer in Iowa explains the need to make a go of it there more starkly: “We can’t finish fifth here on Jan. 3 and think we can do well in New Hampshire on Jan. 8.” (The Iowa GOP has locked in its caucus date, but New Hampshire has not yet scheduled a date; many McCain backers here, though, think it will be in January, not December.)
This a state whose tradition of vaulting mavericks and insurgents onto the national stage has been perfectly suited to McCain’s style in the past — and he still has believers here.
“The people who were with McCain on June 30 are still with him,” said Fergus Cullen, the neutral New Hampshire Republican chairman, alluding to the final day of the second fundraising quarter, when anemic numbers contributed to a widespread perception in political circles that McCain was melting down. “People didn’t abandon ship.”
In a state currently swept by comeback fever (even gate agents at the Manchester airport are donning Boston Red Sox jerseys after the pride of New England’s ALCS effort), it’s possible to spot hopeful signs for McCain.
His recent debate performances, beginning at a University of New Hampshire forum in September, have been more solid. A leadership meeting of McCain backers in Concord the other night drew 150 foot soldiers ready to canvass for their candidate. These backers contend that McCain’s underdog status, though unsought, has allowed him to regain his natural voice as an insurgent.
“He’s had a good fall,” observed University of New Hampshire professor Dante Scala. “I’m struck by the positive press he’s gotten.” Even the arch-conservative Union Leader newspaper, the largest in the state, has been good to McCain of late, Scala noted.
And in a multi-candidate field, McCain’s loyal legions could deliver a plurality. “Somebody could win the primary with 32 percent of the vote,” Scala said.
McCain currently polls a solid third, behind Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, in public surveys here. Two chief obstacles lie in McCain’s path in the state. First he needs to build support, and get beyond the ceiling of his stalwarts.
“Whether he’s able to grow that network is a separate question,” Cullen said.
Then there are two nagging issues that have damaged him here as elsewhere.
“How can they motivate relatively disinterested voters into becoming more interested given his positions on Iraq and immigration?” asked former Rep. Charlie Bass, a Republican who lost his seat last fall in a Democratic tidal wave in the state.
McCain, despite a mutually ambivalent relationship with President Bush, has backed him on the issue most unpopular with the general electorate — a continued intervention in Iraq — and the one most unpopular with many GOP conservatives — reform of immigration laws that would allow millions of illegal immigrants to achieve legal status.
Acknowledging McCain’s solid organization on the ground here, Bass said the senator’s hopes lie beyond the issue matrix, but rather in winning support based on his ingrained and symbolic appeal — or, as Bass puts it, “the franchise.”
For his part, the franchise says he can overcome Iraq and immigration.
“We’re already seeing a shift among some Republicans in national polls and even among some independents,” McCain said about the war. “The facts on the ground are that we are succeeding.”
On immigration, McCain acknowledged: “I got the message: We’ve got to secure our borders.”
He’s airing a television ad now in New Hampshire, seizing on his money line at the last debate about being “tied up” during Woodstock, and McCain said he’ll soon put up another round of spots, focusing on issues.
Asked for his take on the campaign’s Iowa-New Hampshire quandary, McCain said he believes he can compete both places, and is reconciled to the fact that he’ll “just have to work very hard.”
“I go seven days a week, 14, 16, 18 hours a day, but we’ve been doing it for a long time,” McCain said, riding in his bus back from a stop on the coast to this city, where he was flying out the next morning at 6 a.m. to be in Washington for a vote.
New Hampshire backers are happy for the effort — they just wish it was not divided in half. Some see sentiment more than strategy driving McCain’s choices.
“He doesn’t want to be a guy who skips a state,” laments a top McCain supporter in New Hampshire. “It’s a pride thing.”
Hopefully if he loses bad in N.H. he’ll go home to Arizona for good and drool.
Dont go home mad john,just go home.
McCain and the rest of the seven dwarves
need to get off the stage.
Say good night John, you sold us out.
We never forget.
I’m voting for McCain.
He is the candidate with the most experience & knowledge.
Plus, given his sacrifices & suffering as a P.O.W. in Vietnam (for over 5 years!), he is a true American Hero.
We need someone like that in office.
His strategy for Iraq was correct from the beginning. He has a PLAN for Healthcare, Medicare & Social Security - as a Senator, he understands those issues.
He realizes that Border Security is a priority.
He is Pro-Life.
He has campaigned vigorously against Pork Barrel spending & “business-as-usual in Washington.
Unlike typical politicians, he will stand up (& speak up!) for what is the right thing to do & not just say what he thinks people want to hear.
He is a pragmatist who will “reach across the aisle” when necessary.
What more could you want for POTUS?
I’ve supported Bush since he got the nomination (see tagline), but I think McCain should’ve gotten the nom in 2000. His experience as a Navy Liason back in the 80’s would’ve given him more insight into the situation in the mideast, so better decisions might have been made over the past eight years. Now is the time to fix the situation, and McCain is the best candidate for that job.
Again, we need him in office - hope all of you will give McCain your consideration & once you do, I hope you will conclude that he is the one to vote for!
He likes to go on talk shows and be the hero of the media.
He is too stupid to realize that if he ran against a dem, that same media would savage him.
SOrry I will pass.
Go home John.
Last time I checked, NH was in Romney’s backyard.
I’d be shocked if Romney lost NH.
LOL! The media will savage ANY Republican in the race!
Actually, polls have shown McCain is the most likely candidate to beat Hillary. So I’m not so sure that the media would get on the Hillary bandwagon with McCain running against her. The media are going to support McCain more than any other Republican - so that’s another reason to give him the nomination!
That would be a nice thought.
But I think the media wants Hillary and would put McKane
out to pasture.
That would be a nice thought.
But I think the media wants Hillary and would put McKane
out to pasture.
Nah, they’ll get a kick out of him!
He can be pretty entertaining & that means ratings!
When McCain heard that “Baby Jessica” just turned 21 and received $1,000,000, he immediately jumped in a well.
Maybe if he starts getting that message, he stands a chance.
“I’m voting for McCain.”
Is that you John?
And McCain himself is now regularly visiting a state that — with no more private jets at his command — isn’t easy to reach.Red pickup trucks are cheap. It worked for one of the other candidates.
He could be the new Howard Dean!!!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Good for you! I agree with your points.
He’s moving up in the polls!
Now running 2nd in several polls.
Hope the upward trend continues.
Check out this website:
Cheers!
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