Posted on 11/07/2007 7:04:36 AM PST by COUNTrecount
Hillary Rodham Clinton’s lead nationally and in New Hampshire appears to have slipped following her shaky performance in last week’s Democratic debate, according to several polls this week.
Clinton remains the front-runner, however by a narrower margin. Her lead in New Hampshire over her nearest challenger, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, has narrowed from 16 percent prior to the debate to 10 percent following it, according to Rasmussen Reports polling published today.
In Rasmussen’s previous four Granite State polls this year Clinton’s support had never fallen below 37 percent. Today, Clinton finds herself with 34 percent of support among likely Democratic primary voters. Obama follows with the backing of 24 percent of the state’s electorate, and John Edwards trails in third at 15 percent.
The Rasmussen poll follows preliminary findings published Tuesday in a WNBC/Marist Poll, which showed that Clinton’s national support among Democratic primary voters had slipped from 52 percent to 43 after the debate.
A CNN/Opinion Research poll found that Clinton’s national support had ebbed from a high of 51 percent of Democratic voters in October to 44 percent this week. Nationally, the poll found, Clinton’s lead over Obama decreased from 30 points in October to 19 points.
But the New Hampshire poll is potentially more significant. The first in the nation primary is Clinton’s firewall in the coming contest.
GOP candidates trumpet Christian endorsements Free trade fisticuffs Republicans can't agree on new image Clinton is stuck in a statistical dead heat in the Iowa caucuses, scheduled for early January. However, her lead in New Hampshire had appeared so insurmountable in recent weeks that her campaign could depend upon the state for a victory, should she fail to win in Iowa.
Equally, if she won in Iowa, Clinton’s camp hoped New Hampshire could seal her victory, as it had for John Kerry in 2004. In a show of confidence, Clinton’s campaign shifted her primary spending target from New Hampshire in the first half of the year to Iowa in the third quarter.
It remains to be seen whether the debate, and subsequent coverage and polling, could lead the New York senator’s campaign to recalibrate their strategy.
Clinton acknowledged to CNN Tuesday, “I wasn’t at my best the other night.”
In a two-hour debate October 30 in Philadelphia, Clinton came under an intense barrage of attacks from her lead challengers. She held her ground, however, until the last few minutes when she equivocated on a question of whether she supported offering driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants.
The day after the debate Clinton joined Edwards and Obama in expressing her support for offering driving licenses to undocumented workers, though she has appeared to hedge somewhat since. Only 19 percent of Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire back the policy, according to Rasmussen.
The week of critical press that followed the debate may have been more damaging than Clinton’s actual performance. “When a candidate has a bad moment that tends to shake off loose support,” pollster Scott Rasmussen said.
That “loose support” appears to be largely among men. Though Clinton’s backing among women has narrowed two points, she owes her decrease overall more to the loss of Democratic men. Clinton has fallen six points with men since October.
The gender gap remains the defining fact of the primary contests ahead. In New Hampshire, Clinton splits men with Obama (24 percent each) but wins among women by 41 to 24 percent. Obama follows with 24 percent of the support of Democratic women in the state, a notable 4-point increase since October. Neither Obama nor Edwards have a gender gap among their supporters.
The Rasmussen poll illustrates that women’s gender identity with the first viable female candidate remains strong enough to withstand what has been one of Clinton’s worst weeks of the campaign. Today, Clinton’s lead in the primaries is almost exclusively dependent upon Democratic women.
This trend is visible in voters’ view of the Democratic field. Clinton’s favorability rating has dropped in New Hampshire since the debate, Rasmussen finds. Fully 72 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in the state have a favorable view of Clinton, but that’s down from 81 percent prior to the debate.
More New Hampshire voters now have a “positive assessment” of Obama (82 percent) and Edwards (76 percent) than they do Clinton.
Notably, while 40 percent of New Hampshire Democratic women have a “very favorable” view of Clinton, only 22 percent of the state’s Democratic men say the same, Rasmussen reports.
“It’s significant that her lead is not what it was, but she’s still ahead,” Rasmussen said, noting that Clinton’s support among women still presents the greatest obstacle to challengers.
Oh she’s in real trouble now. /s
Nonsense! This wasn't a gaffe such as befell George ("Macaca") Allen or George ("Brainwashed") Romney. The problem for Her Heinous is that the debate exposed her for the lying, solipsistic, parsing witch that she is.
duh
She's not in 'trouble' yet, but this will encourage Obama & Edwards to keep up the heat; something that's new in the Democrat debates. Heck, they've even taken the gloves off going after her husband (to a degree).
What will be telling is how this affects future performances. Can she take it?
She WASN’T at her best the other night. She can lie and spin much better than that.
Democrats are finding out what Hillary is really like and that they should fear her if elected to the highest office in the land. They are learning that Hillary will turn on them in a minute if they should disagree with her. Her thing is not money, it is total control and power. With all the good people in this country, it makes no sense to take a chance on Hillary.
I think that the other candidates should go after the impeached ex president cliton... he is not running, and let the wife of the impeached ex president cliton, stand on her two heavy legs..
I wouldn’t be too surprised in Team Clinton cancelled further debates.
That I don't see. It would be tacit admission she can't take the heat. And that would be an admission she's not up to being President.
Of course, Bill's attacking Obama & Edwards this week is also an admission of this if looked at correctly. But it's far less evident from that than her backing out of further debates would be.
Well they might demand different moderators. Russert is sure not to be a future one she wants to face.
I don't know if she'd go quite that far, but nothing she and her husband could ever do would surprise me. Right now, she has to show the Soros/moveon.org loons that she is a viable socialist candidate without totally scaring away the critical "undecideds" in the general election. Hence, walking that very fine line.
But, once nominated, she can't go too far to the right or she will risk alienating some of the large left-wing bloc that got her the nomination. They might stay home or, worse, draft an admitted lefty like Nader or (LOL!) AlGore, thus guaranteeing an easy republican victory.
It is so much easier to be an honest candidate, like Ronald Reagan. "This is what I believe and this is how I will govern." Of course, Hillary could never do that because an avowed outright Marxist still can't get elected president.
The Waaar Room had a really bad week all in all.
Obama & Dodd already have to some extent. That's what I'm getting at. The polls show her vulnerability. They'd be fools to ignore it. But will they continue? Time will tell. The only way, however, she could regain her momentum should they attack is by showing a much more commanding presence (without her husband's tacit support) than she's shown 'till now. I.E. as you say..."stand on her two heavy legs".
I'm just wondering whether she's capable of that.
She would have had another 5-7 months to let the anticipation grow, as well as having more time to bring her negatives down.
She, and her campaign advisors panicked, due to Obama's initial splash. After those extra 5-7 months of obfuscating on issues, the MSM had to start pinning her down, if only to restore their credibility.
The horse is out of the barn, and Cankles has no idea how to corral it. Billy Jeff's "Swift Boat" remarks threw kerosene onto the fire.
Still, I don't think Obama or Edwards have the gravitas to send her packing.
What had happened last week could be the begining of the exposure of more of Sen. Clinton’s weaknesses.
Not sure how the moderators are chosen, but it has to do with the network that televises the debates.
It would be interesting should Clinton get into a muck with the networks over who she wants as moderators. If she can’t handle the moderators how can she handle dictators?
If she backs out, she could be seen as being not a good presidential canidate and thus toast.
Exactly! How she plays this between now and the next debate will be interesting. But the bottom line (IMHO) is, she has to show she can stand by herself. Anything short of that will be a major setback.
The other fox-in-the-hen-house is her response to the NY driver's license issue. New Yorkers are against this big time but she's come out in favor of it. Big mistake. This, frankly, may have caused most of the downturn in poll support.
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