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Posted on 11/08/2007 6:42:27 AM PST by Romneyfor President2008
No other polling firm has ever had Romney leading in South Carolina. Every other polling firm since August has had Fred Thompson leading in South Carolina.
The chart I posted includes all presidential preference polls conducted in South Carolina for this Primary Season. My primary source was RealClearPolitics.com. Each poll has its own MoE. I can't add "error bars" to the chart.
The poll average is wildly skewed by the trash ARG poll.
Money can’t buy you love, but it can keep the gap open just a little...
For now...
Don't be mislead by the spin. These averages are wildly distorted by results from ARG, which are so far out of line with everyone else that they can't be relied on. Romney's a solid third, and has closed up the gap somewhat, but he still trails the leader Thompson, who holds a narrow but consistent advantage over Giuliani.
Yeh ... looks like a Romney campaign staff meeting.
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Three guys, one percentage point.
Agreed. SC for Fred is for all the marbles.
I couldn’t imagine a scenario where he lost there and won the nomination.
Not in the first three. Mitt is leading a great deal in Iowa and in NH. If he wins those and SC too, I don't see how he gets stopped.
I'm not paying a lot of attention right now, like almost all Americans. I think that Mitt is trying really hard not to peak in the national polls right now. The first thing most people will wake up to is Mitt winning in Iowa, then following that with NH.
He'll be like a shiny new penny that few people had even noticed. Handsome and well-spoken, he will seem like a fresh alternative to Rudy, and the tired twins: McCain and Thompson.
I'm not speaking as a partisan. It's just that Romney is a very attractive candidate, especially at first glance. He is running a classic campaign, focusing exactly where he has to--and beating the other guys there--think of that. There is very little similarity between Iowa, NH, and SC; except that they are crucial, and that winning all three has been a sure strategy for winning the nomination. Mitt seems to be doing just that.
Mitt's working hard, and he's working smart. He's spending money too, of course. But it's honest money and it's honest effort. He isn't doing anything that Fred and Rudy couldn't do if they had the mind or ability to.
I haven't read the other posts here but I suspect there's at least a dozen of them from Fred supporters whining that the poll is "meaningless" or that Mitt "bought" the results or that Fred is just starting his engine.
Maybe he is, maybe he is. Fred hasn't shown half the effort, organization, or drive that Mitt has to this point, however. With his name recognition and confortable southern drawl, he ought to be annihilating Mitt in South Carolina.
Maybe as South Carolinans get to know Mitt better, they start to like him better.
Fred's been campaigning in South Carolina now for two months now. Why isn't he ahead of these two yankees by double-digits?
It can't be for lack of money. He's raised plenty. And he's spent very little in Iowa and New Hampshire. He has been heavily concentrating on South Carolina.
With his natural advantages his numbers should be rocketing skyward like a Saturn V. Why aren't they?
It’s a statstical dead heat. This should get interesting.
Before the RNC decided to penalize South Carolina for having an earlier than allowed primary, the state had 47 delegates. The winner of each of the state's six Congressional districts would receive three delegates. The other twenty-six delegates would go to the overall winner of the primary. After the penalty, South Carolina will have 24 delegates, and no one knows yet how they will be apportioned. If the state decides that all 24 delegates will be winner-take-all, then this poll becomes incredibly important. On the other hand, they may decide to let the winner of each Congressional district have three delegates and have only six awarded on a winner-take-all basis for the entire state. In that case, the overall leader is almost irrelevant, and the important polls would be within each Congressional district.
Bill
Smart young gal!
It looks to me like Fred is trying to lose. Not that I'm upset about it since he is not my guy. But his campaign is a case study of how *NOT* to run a campaign.
The deeper problem is that he’s a whale of a liar; one of the most corrupt politicians on the planet. His record says exactly the opposite of what he basically “stands for” in his campaign rhetoric. He’s fooled a few in the religious right, but he’d die a very painful death in a general election. I predict he’ll pass into history as a “once ran” very quickly, once the surprise wears off. He won’t be the Republican nominee.
“Guiliani is the front runner in Republican primaries overall.”
Source?
My point is in the primary season national pollls don’t really mean that much, it’s the state polls that matter.
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