Yeah, all $2,777.80 of it.
***And if Hunter gets to 4% on Intrade, reflecting his current polling status, that would generate $111,112 (minus commission or fees or whatever). Not bad at all.
You're still incorrectly conflating support numbers with probabilities. Even if the obvious 4% outlier were accurate, Hunter still has an approximately zero chance of winning the nomination, as is reflected in his stagnant and marginal "price" on Intrade.
Hunter won’t get to $0.20. You have to realise that the 4% you are speaking of is $4. He’s basicaaly trading (actually he’s NOT trading) at the lowest possible tick, 10 cents per contract and no takers at that price, suggesting that the actual value of a Hunter contract is something less than that. as I put it, it approaches absolute zero.
You seem to have the idea that if Hunter could get to 4% or 5% in the polls, somehow the value of his contract in Intrade would rise to reflect that.
It wouldn’t.
Why? That’s just NOT how markets work. Because you can’t with 4%, and that would be the upper bound of possibility for him, the market will continue to assess Hunter’s chances of bweing the Republican nominee as essentially zero. Hunter is trading right there with Tom Tancredo. if Barney Frank were a Republican presidential candidate, he’d be right there with Duncan.
Look, if you were to buy one of more of the outstanding Hunter contracts you’d make the holders very happy because I can assure you that they know they are holding a worthless asset, due to expire at a zero value ssome months from now. It would warm their hearts to know that somewhere out there you can still find someone willing to pay something for nothing.