Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
OK, so you’ve got a thousand dollars burning a hole in your pocket and you want to make a statement with it at the same time as getting 40X return on your “investment”, you want $40,000 for that $1000 bet, like Hillary did in her Pig Belly futures or whatever it was. You’re going to decide between putting it down on Hunter or Thompson over at Intrade because these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.
https://www.intrade.com/
Which one do you choose?
Let’s start with the guy who has 3 balls. He’s got courage in spades. He’s engaged enemy soldiers in Viet Nam when he was a LRRP ranger and he got a Bronze Star for his real bravery. His friend and supporter also has 3 balls, the guy who we all know as “the man who broke the sound barrier”, Chuck Yeager. While they’re campaigning in Iowa, all you have to do is ask Chuck to tell the story about how he and Bob Hoover were in Russia and got that chance to fly a YAK and Bob took it up gently and respectfully and flew it straight & level into the horizon… and then returned over the viewing stand flying upside down and basically causing the Russians to pee in their pants. After hearing this story or one of a million others, Hunter will take the podium and leverage that emotional courage language that Americans love, and they’ll all look at each other & nod, saying, “this is the guy who should be my president”.
Now let’s cover the guy who played a soldier in the movies. He was quite convincing when he was telling Jack Ryan of the CIA that he wouldn’t be able to get to the submarine because it involved flying in a helicopter, and the last time Jack was in a helicopter he spent 3 months recovering from the accident. It’s interesting and fun entertainment, but it is not real. While he and his friend are campaigning in Iowa, he will need to build his own emotional leverage with the audience, and this is not a Hollywood script.
Right now over at Intrade, Thompson futures contracts are trading at about 6%. There was a time when he had the lead and was trading at 35%, but over the last few weeks he has lost about 30 points. He had the spotlight shining on him as the most conservative guy with the best name recognition, while thousands of his supporters were crossing their fingers during the debates hoping he wouldn’t screw up.
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
Hunter futures contracts are at 0.1%. Over the last few weeks they have remained at 0.1%, with the volume staying put at 27778. That is the number to watch. All it takes is for that number to start moving. It means someone is buying Hunter’s contract at a very low price. Within a few weeks, that number will be history. Hunter has been campaigning on a shoestring budget and slowly gaining recognition in the polls, recently just coming in at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922644/posts
At that point, everyone will know he’s at 5% in the polls. His futures contracts at Intrade, if they’re still at 0.1, will have relentless upward pressure from bargain hunters, but by then it will be too late to buy in at that price.
Here’s where the decision gets made, why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter rather than Thompson. In order to get 40X return by investing in Thompson, you would have to buy his contract to win the whole kit & caboodle, the presidency, which is now trading at 2.5.
2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election
At $6, you could not get 40X return on the Fred.Nominee contract. If you bought it at $5, the best you could get is 20X return.
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008
The forum at Intrade seems to waver between those who think Fred’s campaign is imploding and those who think it will rebound. But they have freewheeling discussions about the why and how that we have been missing here on Free Republic.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
So your decision comes down to this: Is it more likely that Hunter will get 1% more exposure in national polls, and move up to 4 or 5% at Intrade or is it more likely that Thompson will win the presidency outright? Remember, this is the guy who had the spotlight shined on him as the conservative golden boy and lost 30 points at Intrade, and has been losing ground in the polls lately.
While his supporters are crossing their fingers hoping he doesn’t screw up, Hunter’s supporters are folding their hands in prayer hoping that he’ll just be himself.
Over the last few days, I’ve seen a couple of posts like this
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts?page=284#284
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
Posted by Kevmo to SergeiRachmaninov On News/Activism 11/13/2007 1:51:29 PM PST · 284 of 536
It is a bitter time for those who have invested all their hopes with Fred and repressed all doubts. ...Still it is not much fun when you have chosen your candidate, put him on a pedestal, and gone to war for him, and then reality starts to batter you. I’ve already trod the path from hopeful about Fred, to disappointed, to angry in my disappointment. I really should do better at being gentle to those who are somewhere else along on that path.
***That is some amazing candor. I honestly do think that Hunter will not disappoint you in that way. He may not win the nomination due to lack of name recognition, but he is doing what he can about that. His character stands head & shoulders above the others in the race.
That is the emotional language of someone who has felt betrayed by his candidate. But the Hunter followers do not feel betrayed, they have circled the wagons and they are coming out fighting. That’s where you put your money down, where there is fight to the inner core, and the guy they’re fighting for is genuine.
All it takes is that one or two Freepers will copy this article and send it to their wealthy friend who did so well in the stock market during the dotcom boom, or won a thousand bucks at a beer drinking tournament or whatever. Then we’ll start to see that 27778 number trickle, then it will flood through relentlessly. And that will serve as a metaphor for the entire republican campaign, what has been a trickle of support will soon break through the floodgates in myriads of ways, whether it’s our grandmother sending in the $25 check to Hunter’s campaign
http://www.gohunter08.com
or Iowans asking if they could put up a sign on their front lawn or our grandchild folding her hands in prayer for this courageous man.
And then we’ll see Hunter smile.
Oh good grief. I’m talking about a necessary combination of charisma and a record to back it up and you respond by daydreaming about an endorsement that won’t happen and wouldn’t matter a damn if it did.
***I honestly do think Hunter has “enough” charisma, just like we see over & over again that so many freepers think Thompson is conservative “enough”. If Thompson is supposed to be the guy who has charisma, why is he dropping in the polls and at Intrade? Because he doesn’t have “enough” charisma. He’s got a mostly good record. He has made a mess of his campaign.
Huckabee’s support could be frustrated evangelicals, but the reason they are going for Huckabee is because he’s got a personality that draws them to him. He’s good with one-liners, says the right things, and gives very good, rousing speeches. If Hunter did any of that, he would have beaten Huckabee at Ames and would be in the running now.
***I don’t know how to determine how much that’s true or not true, hard for me to gauge it either way. It is obvious that the evangelicals are fractured. If Huckabee gets the nod because he has “enough charisma” then so be it. I happen to think that his flame is temporarily lit because the conservative evangelicals have been silent, and Huckabee is not a conservative and the evangelicals need to support someone. I do not know why the conservative Evies are silent. My guess is, they know that a major fight is coming in the republican party and they have no stomach for it.
It’s well beyond the point where a single person’s endorsement can save Hunter’s campaign.
***I disagree, but if it doesn’t happen it would be an academic exercise.
After searching more, I see that what I posted is about an Iowa debate on Dec 12 (not the GOP/FoxNews debate that is scheduled for Dec 4). It looks like they are two separate events.
All this aside, deft move from Hunter on Rush today. He should have been doing things like that all along.
I define charisma as the ability to captivate people into following you. If Hunter didn’t lack that ability, he would be where Huckabee is now, plain and simple.
***That neglects what went on in the field, same as what happened when Mr. aRINOld Charismagger entered the race. He got the support of the guys who would otherwise have gotten behind McClintock. We’re in the same inflection point now in the presidential race. The issue isn’t that Hunter lacks charisma, it is that someone else with a little more of it came into his desired slot. That’s politics. But since that guy who took the slot is doing a crummy job of driving, he is creating the situation where the No.2 guy says, “let me drive, I won’t lose 30 points.”
I know you guys all know it. It’s why so many Hunter supporters resort to browbeating people.
***Nope. The resort to browbeating is because we are so surprised that people prefer the name-recognition candidate, again, just like what happened with aRINOld and look where we are with that one. We are admittedly frustrated.
Over the last few days, I’ve seen a couple of posts like this http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts?page=284#284
Post 284 is YOUR post...
***No, I was defending it 50 times a thread against a freeper who called me a liar and started stalking me. I changed one part of one sentence in the standard post and it passed muster as “not a lie”. See if you can tell the difference.
You have posted this more than just in response to petronski, indeed, you state even in this one reply (to my ad nauseum comment):
Yep. But the ad nauseam part is off base. I’ve been posting it on Hunter threads, and Fredhead threads on immigration + where Fred’s been Foundering/Floundering. We deserve a better candidate than that
Also to that I will add that maybe we do deserve a better candidate than one who founders or whatever, but is that "better candidate" necessarily one who has not taken off at all? Who is likely to rise again, those who have seen better numbers or those who have had hardly any numbers at all?
In the end what I "got' is that while Hunter is indeed a good conservative, there is more, much more, to this game than just that.
Kevmo:The back & forth deals on spending do not interest me as much,
Mogambo: and that is the difference between the old conservatives and the new big government crowd. It is like stealing so that you will have enough money to get power and protect the people against theft. Won’t work. Never has. Never will.
***Nope. That’s what drives social conservatives (SOCONS) versus Fiscal Conservatives (FISCONS). Fiscons tolerate socons because they’re a large voting bloc but they really look for the day when a candidate will come and bypass the socons, which is what we all saw here with the rudytoots. It doesn’t mean that I’m NOT fiscon, it’s just that I see these discussions about tax rates and derivatives and... like Hunterite said, “finance bills are so exciting to go through with a fine tooth comb.” NOT. I just get bored with it. To me, the finer points of the prescription drug bill just don’t excite me as much as the prospect of ending the American Holocaust of 50M dead babies.
p.s. that ain't gonna happen.
Huh. I must have remembered that wrong, its the NEA, not DOE.
http://www.gohunter08.com/inner.asp?z=4
National Endowment of the Arts
I have significant concerns with federal funding provided to the National Endowment of the Arts (NEA). As many Americans know, the NEA provides direct grants to art institutions, programs of national significance and a few limited individual grants for literature and music fellowships. I believe the creative arts can play an important role in the expressive and cultural development of our society. At the same time, however, I strongly oppose using these federal funds for any group that produces material that has questionable artistic, scientific or political value. For that reason, I have consistently voted against funding increases for the NEA and I have supported, and will continue to support, efforts to transfer NEA funds to school art programs.
Education
I believe we can educate students more effectively by returning school curriculum prerogatives to the states, local communities and, most importantly, to the family. State agencies charged with conducting education policies do not need expensive and inefficient mandates from a federal agency and I support streamlining the responsibilities of the U.S. Department of Education toward a goal of working in cooperation with local and state governments to meet local and state learning levels.
http://www.ontheissues.org/CA/Duncan_Hunter.htm
Duncan Hunter on Education
* Voted NO on allowing Courts to decide on “God” in Pledge of Allegiance. (Jul 2006)
* Voted NO on $84 million in grants for Black and Hispanic colleges. (Mar 2006)
* Voted YES on allowing school prayer during the War on Terror. (Nov 2001)
* Voted YES on requiring states to test students. (May 2001)
* Voted YES on allowing vouchers in DC schools. (Aug 1998)
* Voted YES on vouchers for private & parochial schools. (Nov 1997)
* Voted YES on giving federal aid only to schools allowing voluntary prayer. (Mar 1994)
* Rated 17% by the NEA, indicating anti-public education votes. (Dec 2003)
* Supports a Constitutional Amendment for school prayer. (May 1997)
ABOLISH THE NEA! :)
“All this aside, deft move from Hunter on Rush today. He should have been doing things like that all along.”
What happened?
My theory is that there are a small number of folks that are more predisposed to Hunter’s method of speaking, which is very cold and full of rattled off statistics, read off like a laundry list. The problem with this is that, while it may be pleasing to that small number of folks, it really doesn’t do much for the public at large.
***And my theory is that Hunter got the wind taken out of his sails when Thompson moved in, that’s why he did not build up his name recognition in that time period.
Yes, the man has a good record. Yes, he’s right on just about every position he’s taken. It is unfortunate that he lacks the ability to excite enough people to rally around him. If he had that ability, he’d have the name recognition necessary to be a real contender.
***I don’t think he “lacks the ability”, he simply did not have as much name recognition as Thompson and there were a bunch of conservatives who went down that path because it is the easiest path. If Thompson had taken off past Rudy and Mitt (wasn’t that what he was SUPPOSED to do?) then we would not even be having this discussion right now.
will be no second chance for a traditional conservative in the North American Union.
***OMG, that is one scary thought.
Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.
They shouldn’t be allowed to exclude him.
***Yup. Bump that. I called the Iowa GOP and let them know in very firm but polite terms that what they were doing was unacceptable. Pissant has the phone number somewhere. But the latest rumor I hear is that he has been invited, so we’ll see.
You gotta deal, Kevmo. 500 to 1 is an absolute steal.
***Oh, sorry, my price just went up. You’ll have to buy me some beer too. And, I can’t forget my family, so it’s dinner for 4 + some beer. I promise I won’t change that deal ;-)
I agree that it is a steal. That’s why I’m posting this stuff. The smart money is on Hunter.
Best bet is to tell Fox “News” that if Hunter isn’t in the debate, you’re going to start watching CNN.
Hunter won’t get to $0.20. You have to realise that the 4% you are speaking of is $4. He’s basicaaly trading (actually he’s NOT trading) at the lowest possible tick, 10 cents per contract and no takers at that price, suggesting that the actual value of a Hunter contract is something less than that. as I put it, it approaches absolute zero.
You seem to have the idea that if Hunter could get to 4% or 5% in the polls, somehow the value of his contract in Intrade would rise to reflect that.
It wouldn’t.
Why? That’s just NOT how markets work. Because you can’t with 4%, and that would be the upper bound of possibility for him, the market will continue to assess Hunter’s chances of bweing the Republican nominee as essentially zero. Hunter is trading right there with Tom Tancredo. if Barney Frank were a Republican presidential candidate, he’d be right there with Duncan.
Look, if you were to buy one of more of the outstanding Hunter contracts you’d make the holders very happy because I can assure you that they know they are holding a worthless asset, due to expire at a zero value ssome months from now. It would warm their hearts to know that somewhere out there you can still find someone willing to pay something for nothing.
To learn all about the union which has been poisoning our students for the past 40 years, get a copy of:
N.E.A. Trojan Horse in American Education, by Samuel L. Blumenfeld.
It explains why we are where we are today.
>>>But the latest rumor I hear is that he has been invited, so we’ll see.
If you come across where you read or heard that, can you freepmail me a link? Thanks!
Do you ever bore yourself?
***Wow, you’re brave for a new guy. I would never have done that when I first joined.
So, to be clear, we’re talking about the Department of Education that he wants to abolish, right? I think there actually is an NEA, National Education Association, which would be kinda tough to abolish because they’re private.
www.nea.org/
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