Kevmo, your analysis is flawed.
The reason Fred thompson is at 6% and Duncan Hunter at somewhere just barely above absolute zero is that despite everything else, like Thompson’s weakness over the past few weeks, Hunter’s slight gain in the polls in the same time frame, the price of tea in China, etc. one single important fact rules, and is is this: People with money aren’t betting it on Duncan Hunter because Hunter hasn’t a snowball’s chance in hades of securing the Republican nomination, no matter whether he is at 3%, 4% OR 5% in the polls, whereas Fred Thompson does have.
Thompson remains a much better Intrade bet at $6 than Duncan Hunter at next to nothing.
Thompson remains a much better Intrade bet at $6 than Duncan Hunter at next to nothing.
***Thompson’s upside is 20 to 1 if he drops to $5. Hunter’s upside is 40 to 1 if he hits 5%. Hunter’s upside would pay out within the next few weeks, Thompson’s would pay out at the nomination. I would say your analysis is flawed.