(vanity) Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter

Self ^ | 11/11/07 | Kevmo

[Kevmo]

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter

OK, so you’ve got a thousand dollars burning a hole in your pocket and you want to make a statement with it at the same time as getting 40X return on your “investment”, you want $40,000 for that $1000 bet, like Hillary did in her Pig Belly futures or whatever it was. You’re going to decide between putting it down on Hunter or Thompson over at Intrade because these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.
https://www.intrade.com/
Which one do you choose?

Let’s start with the guy who has 3 balls. He’s got courage in spades. He’s engaged enemy soldiers in Viet Nam when he was a LRRP ranger and he got a Bronze Star for his real bravery. His friend and supporter also has 3 balls, the guy who we all know as “the man who broke the sound barrier”, Chuck Yeager. While they’re campaigning in Iowa, all you have to do is ask Chuck to tell the story about how he and Bob Hoover were in Russia and got that chance to fly a YAK and Bob took it up gently and respectfully and flew it straight & level into the horizon… and then returned over the viewing stand flying upside down and basically causing the Russians to pee in their pants. After hearing this story or one of a million others, Hunter will take the podium and leverage that emotional courage language that Americans love, and they’ll all look at each other & nod, saying, “this is the guy who should be my president”.

Now let’s cover the guy who played a soldier in the movies. He was quite convincing when he was telling Jack Ryan of the CIA that he wouldn’t be able to get to the submarine because it involved flying in a helicopter, and the last time Jack was in a helicopter he spent 3 months recovering from the accident. It’s interesting and fun entertainment, but it is not real. While he and his friend are campaigning in Iowa, he will need to build his own emotional leverage with the audience, and this is not a Hollywood script.

Right now over at Intrade, Thompson futures contracts are trading at about 6%. There was a time when he had the lead and was trading at 35%, but over the last few weeks he has lost about 30 points. He had the spotlight shining on him as the most conservative guy with the best name recognition, while thousands of his supporters were crossing their fingers during the debates hoping he wouldn’t screw up.
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

Hunter futures contracts are at 0.1%. Over the last few weeks they have remained at 0.1%, with the volume staying put at 27778. That is the number to watch. All it takes is for that number to start moving. It means someone is buying Hunter’s contract at a very low price. Within a few weeks, that number will be history. Hunter has been campaigning on a shoestring budget and slowly gaining recognition in the polls, recently just coming in at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922644/posts
At that point, everyone will know he’s at 5% in the polls. His futures contracts at Intrade, if they’re still at 0.1, will have relentless upward pressure from bargain hunters, but by then it will be too late to buy in at that price.

Here’s where the decision gets made, why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter rather than Thompson. In order to get 40X return by investing in Thompson, you would have to buy his contract to win the whole kit & caboodle, the presidency, which is now trading at 2.5.

2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election

At $6, you could not get 40X return on the Fred.Nominee contract. If you bought it at $5, the best you could get is 20X return.

2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008

The forum at Intrade seems to waver between those who think Fred’s campaign is imploding and those who think it will rebound. But they have freewheeling discussions about the why and how that we have been missing here on Free Republic.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

So your decision comes down to this: Is it more likely that Hunter will get 1% more exposure in national polls, and move up to 4 or 5% at Intrade or is it more likely that Thompson will win the presidency outright? Remember, this is the guy who had the spotlight shined on him as the conservative golden boy and lost 30 points at Intrade, and has been losing ground in the polls lately.

While his supporters are crossing their fingers hoping he doesn’t screw up, Hunter’s supporters are folding their hands in prayer hoping that he’ll just be himself.

Over the last few days, I’ve seen a couple of posts like this
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts?page=284#284

According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
Posted by Kevmo to SergeiRachmaninov On News/Activism 11/13/2007 1:51:29 PM PST · 284 of 536
It is a bitter time for those who have invested all their hopes with Fred and repressed all doubts. ...Still it is not much fun when you have chosen your candidate, put him on a pedestal, and gone to war for him, and then reality starts to batter you. I’ve already trod the path from hopeful about Fred, to disappointed, to angry in my disappointment. I really should do better at being gentle to those who are somewhere else along on that path.
***That is some amazing candor. I honestly do think that Hunter will not disappoint you in that way. He may not win the nomination due to lack of name recognition, but he is doing what he can about that. His character stands head & shoulders above the others in the race.

That is the emotional language of someone who has felt betrayed by his candidate. But the Hunter followers do not feel betrayed, they have circled the wagons and they are coming out fighting. That’s where you put your money down, where there is fight to the inner core, and the guy they’re fighting for is genuine.

All it takes is that one or two Freepers will copy this article and send it to their wealthy friend who did so well in the stock market during the dotcom boom, or won a thousand bucks at a beer drinking tournament or whatever. Then we’ll start to see that 27778 number trickle, then it will flood through relentlessly. And that will serve as a metaphor for the entire republican campaign, what has been a trickle of support will soon break through the floodgates in myriads of ways, whether it’s our grandmother sending in the $25 check to Hunter’s campaign
http://www.gohunter08.com
or Iowans asking if they could put up a sign on their front lawn or our grandchild folding her hands in prayer for this courageous man.

And then we’ll see Hunter smile.

[Kevmo]

It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.

According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts

Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.

Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Fred is at $6, which corresponds to the traders believing he has a 6% chance of winning the nomination, and discussing why. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM) Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0

37 posted on 11/14/2007 6:53:53 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.) [ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies | Report Abuse ]

35 posted on 11/14/2007 8:29:17 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.) [ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies | Report Abuse ]

[Kevmo]

I still haven’t figured out how to get links to work right when I post an article. For the Hunter Ping List.

It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts

Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.

Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Fred is at $6, which corresponds to the traders believing he has a 6% chance of winning the nomination, and discussing why. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM) Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0

[longtermmemmory]

then apparently smart money is like common sense, it is not very common.

Just saw Thompson’s television ad, it says everything a conservatives of all candidate advocates want here.

This intra trade stuff still does not explain why Hunter has been dead in the water since the start of his campaign.

Even third party John Anderson in 1980 with only a dinosaur media had more in his campaign.

[Earthdweller]

"This intra trade stuff still does not explain why Hunter has been dead in the water since the start of his campaign."

Hunter is dead in the water because the elites in DC and the crooks in NY won't let their political arm...the media, give him any coverage. The more people wakeup to this fact, the more outraged they will become. This is going to be the revolution of the people, not the civil war with guns a lot of people are talking about. It's time for the people to take back the capital with their own candidate.

[ReignOfError]

The “smart money” is on Hunter? Man, how I wish I were your bookie. You’d be putting my (hypothetical) kids through college.

[steve8714]

Hunter’s media problem is not a conspiracy, but the fact that the media does not consider the House as qualifying experience for the job. Never has, never will. He’s drawing dead, to use a poker expression.
My evidence? Dennis Kucinich, with more experience than any of the front-running Dems, and nutty positions a lot of the media subscribe to, has the same problem.

[Clara Lou]

Hunter is dead in the water because he has a poor campaign organization and no one knows who he is or what he's done. You have to create some interest in yourself before the MSN will show any interest.

Hunter has had 20+ years to create a persona while he served California. He didn't do that. No one knows who he is outside of California.

[Earthdweller]

That’s BS elitist and controling talk. There is no requirement or law in in the Constitution that says Hunter is not qualified.

[freekitty]

Interesting.

The reason I am voting for Duncan Hunter is he is sincere. He is real and he is a true conservative. He cares about the country and it’s people. And he is a leader.

[Earthdweller]

Hunter is dead in the water because he needs money that he can’t get without media coverage and he can’t get media coverage because the "the money" doesn’t want it. See how the merry-go-round works? Do you seriously think that the people get to pick the candidates?

[Cringing Negativism Network]

Hunter needs a wealthy benefactor.

Someone motivated entirely by patriotism and good sense.

Is there such a person in America today?

[Earthdweller]

"Is there such a person in America today?"

Good question.

[Guenevere]

Spot on!

[Guenevere]

Good job, Kevmo!

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Hunter is dead in the water because of one person: Duncan Hunter.

Huckabee came from where Hunter is in the polls to being an actual contender. Do you know how he did it? By campaigning at Ames and convincing people to vote for him there. He came in second to Romney in what is historically the most important straw poll event for Republicans.

Hunter was there too. He campaigned there too, unlike some of the top-tier candidates. The only problem is that even though he campaigned there, he still finished WAY at the back of the pack. Only John McCain and John Cox (McCain not participating) performed worse than Duncan Hunter.

From that moment on, by failing to ignite his campaign at the ONE opportunity that a campaign like his has to do so, he murdered his own campaign and it has been decomposing ever since.

There is no media conspiracy. The media loves underdogs. They’d gladly pay attention to Hunter in a second if he gave them something worth paying attention to. He hasn’t.

Hunter could EASILY be where Huckabee is right now, if he only had the charisma to sway people to vote for him. He doesn’t. I think you guys know he doesn’t, which is why you all constantly try to browbeat everyone else into supporting him. It doesn’t work that way.

[John Valentine]

Kevmo, your analysis is flawed.

The reason Fred thompson is at 6% and Duncan Hunter at somewhere just barely above absolute zero is that despite everything else, like Thompson’s weakness over the past few weeks, Hunter’s slight gain in the polls in the same time frame, the price of tea in China, etc. one single important fact rules, and is is this: People with money aren’t betting it on Duncan Hunter because Hunter hasn’t a snowball’s chance in hades of securing the Republican nomination, no matter whether he is at 3%, 4% OR 5% in the polls, whereas Fred Thompson does have.

Thompson remains a much better Intrade bet at $6 than Duncan Hunter at next to nothing.

[calcowgirl]

All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.

OR???? Maybe they changed the rules?

Candidates accept invitations to Register debate
THE DES MOINES REGISTER • November 15, 2007

Six Democratic presidential candidates and at least seven Republican candidates will be taking part in The Des Moines Register's presidential debates next month.

GOP candidates who have accepted invitations to participate in the Dec. 12 debate for their party are: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, California Rep. Duncan Hunter, Arizona Sen. John McCain, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's campaign said Wednesday he was still considering the invitation.

(snip)

[Clara Lou]

Well, life is full of systems that we all have to operate within. If you want to be a politician, you have to do some things within the political system to be able to operate successfully. Hunter did well enough in California politics, but he didn’t do what he had to do to be able to operate in the system nationally.

[John Valentine]

It may be a good job at something, but as a way to make money it is some if the worst advice I have ever read.

Money placed on an Intrade proposition for Duncan Hunter to win the Republican nomination is money straight down the drain.

Unless you think that somehow, despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, Hunter will somehow catch fire to the point that he is actually seen as someone who can WIN, you’d be better off giving your money to charity,because you could at least take a tax deduction.

There is a reason why there is no trade in a Hunter drop-out scenario. That’s because its a dead certian proposition, and there are no takers on the other side of the bet.

[Earthdweller]

"Huckabee came from where Hunter is in the polls to being an actual contender..,"

Another BS ploy....do you not think that Huckabee is getting a little "assistance"? He's a minister for Christ's sake. If he were to be the nominee the Dems would get to see another Katheryn Harris moment.

Warning to all players, you are not talking to a typical sheep, I'm the new BS resistant type.

[John Valentine]

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter:

Yeah, all $2,777.80 of it.

[Earthdweller]

Our government and political system is in bondage to whatever scum sucking a-hole has enough money to buy his favorite candidate. Does anyone else but me have a problem with that? I’m sick of it. It was never meant to be that way.

[StarCMC]

Interesting — and I’ll send you a freepmail about those links...

[bert]

He has no chance. He is a great unknown blessed with talent but devoid of presidential electability.

[ejonesie22]

Sheesh Kevmo, do you work for Intrade?

I get it, you have posted this ad nauseum and now it deserves it’s own thread?

Fred Foundering, yeah ok fine I think we get it. Bet on Hunter, ok, ok.

You are overplaying this whole thing. Even if it is worth considering it is becoming harder to take seriously since you post it 50 times a thread.

Oh, and putting your own post in as an example of “post you have been seeing”, well I hope you see a post you make...

A vanity indeed...

[Jim Noble]

these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.

And therefore the most likely to lose in November.

[Guenevere]

With God all things are possible...

I was encouraging Kevmo because he's sincere and trying to make a difference.

I am beyond disgusted with the 'powers that be' who have tried to ignore the most conservative candidate..running!

This cannot be what our forefathers had in mind!

[Puddleglum]

Hunter talks a good game, and votes well on many issues dear to social conservatives, but he spends like a beltway boy. In addition, his ties to the military industry would have the media digging out stories like this, and more:

http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2007/06/new_video_of_pl.html

[normy]

Huckabee came from where Hunter is in the polls to being an actual contender. Do you know how he did it?

By being a pro life liberal, promoted vigorously by the MSM in order to siphon votes from the real conservatives, Fred and Duncan. Freds name recognition will keep him alive until his advertising and debates starts boosting his numbers.

[ejonesie22]

A bit too conspiratorial.

[George W. Bush]

If the smart money is on Duncan, why isn't it showing up in fundraising?

2008 Presidential Election

---

Republican Candidates
Candidate	Home State	Q3 Raised	Q3 Spent	Raised	Spent	Cash on Hand	Debts
Romney, Mitt	MA	$18,396,719	$21,301,756	$62,829,069	$53,612,552	$9,216,517	$17,350,000
Giuliani, Rudy	NY	$11,624,255	$13,300,650	$47,253,521	$30,603,695	$16,649,826	$169,256
McCain, John	AZ	$5,734,478	$5,470,277	$32,124,785	$28,636,157	$3,488,628	$1,730,691
Thompson, Fred	TN	$12,828,111	$5,706,367	$12,828,111	$5,706,367	$7,121,744	$678,432
Paul, Ron	TX	$5,258,456	$2,169,644	$8,268,453	$2,824,786	$5,443,667	$0
Brownback, Sam	KS	$925,745	$1,278,856	$4,235,333	$4,140,660	$94,654	$0
Tancredo, Tom	CO	$767,152	$1,209,583	$3,538,244	$3,458,130	$110,079	$295,603
Huckabee, Mike	AR	$1,034,486	$819,376	$2,345,798	$1,694,497	$651,301	$47,810
Hunter, Duncan	CA	$536,357	$618,117	$1,890,873	$1,758,132	$132,742	$50,000
Keyes, Alan	MD	$21,218	$10,139	$22,768	$10,139	$12,629	$12,876

---

Duncan's a great guy and everyone here likes him. But fundraising and grassroots support have to count for something.

FWIW, I don't like Iowa's GOP excluding him or any of the others except Keyes (who got in so late and doesn't have a national campaign) or Dr. Klein (who nobody ever heard of outside of Iowa and also has no national campaign).

Before long, conservatives will have to pick one candidate to defeat the leftwing mayor. To do that, many of us may have to accept our guy can't make it. And I'm not saying that to try to get you to support my guy. I'm saying it because this is about whether the Republican party will remain a conservative party or not. To me, that's more important than any candidate, including my own current favorite.

[Earthdweller]

So now "ties to the military" is a bad thing? Out of touch with the grassroots thinking again. Marxist thinking at it's worst.

We have got to start listening to what the people want or this nomination is going to be split ten ways to Sunday. It's already apparent...the endorsements are scattered to the wind.

Hunter is the only candidate that the base can get excited about in mass. The elitists with their delusional political hierarchy requirement are going to force us to lose.

[ejonesie22]

Guenevere I hate to say it, he is not being ignored.

He’s been in the party for a long time, they are not ignoring him, the know him. He’s a great soldier for the cause but unless he can show an ability in the big game, they are not going to promote him over those with a greater range of abilities politically. He’s a great man and a great representative but only a good politician. It’s a political game on the national stage, it takes a great politician or a hell of a lot of luck.

Maybe one day that will change, and we will be better for it, but today is not that day.

[Earthdweller]

"...greater range of abilities politically..."

That's a vague statement...more elaboration is a required. Is it your judgment alone or do you have facts?

[Puddleglum]

Did you get out your home edition of word-twister? No, ties to the miltary industrial gravy train can be a bad thing. Ties to the military and its ethos and spirit of service is an excellent thing. But big military budgets by the Fed Gov are as prone to mismanagement and lobbying shenanigans as any other government spending program.

Military spending is the third biggest line item in the federal budget, after interest on the debt and entitlements. That budget must be carefully managed with an eye to A) taking care of troops during and after their service, and B) ensuring high quality and sufficient quantity in their arms and provisions. It must be protected from undue influence by corporations that would benefit from juicy accounts, whether they delivery quality + value or not.

Military budgets are as susceptible to chicanery as highway funds and Water Resource Development funds.

[Earthdweller]

"Military spending is the third biggest line item in the federal budget, after interest on the debt and entitlements."

That is so not correct.

As far as I can tell..you are either carrying the water for Dems or are buying the Koolaide or both. Entitlements have far outpaced any other spending since at least the 60's.

[Guenevere]

Proof????

[Hunterite]

“Duncan’s record on spending is abysmal. Simple as that.”

Really? Prove it.

[Hunterite]

“Hunter talks a good game, and votes well on many issues dear to social conservatives, but he spends like a beltway boy. In addition, his ties to the military industry would have the media digging out stories like this, and more:”

He gets money from the military industry because he is in the Armed Services Committee. If he were in the Forestry Committee on tree-hugging, he would be getting campaign money from loggers or greenpeace. If you got a problem with the way campaign finance is done, why don’t you join McCain and the rest of the Totalitarians who want to shut down free speech.

[fetal heart beats by 21st day]

Go, Duncan Hunter- the man America needs!

www.gohunter08.com

[Puddleglum]

Entitlements have far outpaced any other spending since at least the 60's.

Did anyone say otherwise?

[HereInTheHeartland]

So when I go vote January 3rd in the Iowa caucus; should I support Hunter (who I like) who only has 4-5% support?

That’s the big question.

The straw poll votes we had here in August didn’t matter as much; but this one picks our party’s nominee for the state.

[Puddleglum]

Here is my left-wing source on federal budgets:

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Budget/upload/83722_1.pdf

[Hunterite]

“Did you get out your home edition of word-twister? No, ties to the miltary industrial gravy train can be a bad thing. Ties to the military and its ethos and spirit of service is an excellent thing. But big military budgets by the Fed Gov are as prone to mismanagement and lobbying shenanigans as any other government spending program.”

Yup, the ‘military industrial complex’ has become a political ciche which has negative feelings attached. Mooshy moderates and liberals are cliche-monkeys.

“Military spending is the third biggest line item in the federal budget, after interest on the debt and entitlements.”

Not if you seperate it into Army, Airforce, Marines, Coast Guard spending. Heck lets seperate it down into Armies and Brigades, so its no longer a big number. Christ. Try looking at the percentages of entitlements ADDED TOGETHER IN TOTAL in comparison to other spending.

[Earthdweller]

Only a Dem would be dishonest enough to support Kerry and his fake military record and in the same breath tell us that Hunter can’t win the election because he has been part of the Military.

[Hunterite]

“Here is my left-wing source on federal budgets:

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Budget/upload/83722_1.pdf";

$305 billion on National Defense, out of $1,862 billion in total. 1/6th