According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering

Wash Post ^ | 11/13/07 | Chris Cillizza

[pissant]

The American electorate is a fickle mistress. Just ask former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.).

When Thompson announced his candidacy for president just after Labor Day most national polls showed him running a close second behind former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and the majority of state polls had him in the top three.

No longer. Thompson's campaign has yet to take off as expected and voters -- especially in crucial early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida.

The most recent data comes from New Hampshire where two surveys were released over the weekend. The first, conducted by theUniversity of New Hampshire for the Boston Globe, put Thompson in sixth (yes, SIXTH) place with just three percent of the vote. (Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the way with 32 percent.) In a Marist University poll Thompson again took sixth place with just five percent support. To be clear, Thompson was never a frontrunner in New Hampshire but polls conducted in the run-up to his announcement and just after he formally entered the race show him regularly polling in double digits.

Thompson's shrinking support is apparent in other early states as well. The last three polls taken in Iowa put Thompson in fourth, fifth and fourth place, respectively, and his high water mark in any of those surveys is 11 percent. In Florida, too, Thompson appears to be fading. A new poll conducted for the Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times showed Thompson in fifth place (eight percent) behind Giuliani (36 percent), Romney (19 percent), Arizona Sen. John McCain (12 percent) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (nine percent).

[pissant]

Time to ditch Fred and join the Hunter Campaign folks.

[pissant]

ping

[kevkrom]

I thought we were supposed to ignore polls and vote our consciences? Now, all of a sudden you find a couple of polls you like and we’re supposed to react like Pavlov’s dogs?

[McGruff]

Are you saying this poll is fixed?

Free Republic Opinion Poll: (11/12) Three way runoff: Which one of the following candidates should pro-life conservatives rally behind to defeat the liberal abortionists Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton?

Composite Opinion
Fred Thompson	45.2%		732
Duncan Hunter	39.5%		641
Mitt Romney	15.3%		248
	100.0%		1,621
Member Opinion
Fred Thompson	49.9%		476
Duncan Hunter	37.7%		359
Mitt Romney	12.4%		118
	100.0%		953
Non-Member Opinion
Duncan Hunter	42.2%		282
Fred Thompson	38.3%		256
Mitt Romney	19.5%		130
	100.0%		668

[ More Opinion Polls · Return to Forum ]

[bcsco]

Time to ditch Fred and join the Hunter Campaign folks.

So you say :)

[Dr. Sivana]

I don’t think any of us thought of New Hampshire as Thompson’s strong suit. Like with Tsongas, it could be considered a virtual home state for Romney. Giuliani is placing 5th in Iowa.

Interestingly, the article doesn’t mention South Carolina. Most discount the possibility, but we may be heading towards a three or four way brokered convention.

[pissant]

Nope. But it is time to heed this one...for the sake of our Republic and Reaganism.

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/poll?poll=197;results=1

[pissant]

It does mention SC. Fred has the lead.

[pissant]

Well, That has always been the reason Fredheads gave me for not supporting Hunter. Let’s give Hunter a ride in the polls, and watch him squash Rudy McRombee.

[Badeye]

According to polls at this time in 2004, so was John Kerry (13% in the polls at that moment).

We won’t know who’s ‘for real’ and who is not til the first two primaries, at the earliest.

[freekitty]

Exactly. Let’s start getting these conservatives in office.

[brownsfan]

Fred isn’t getting face time, nor is he showing passion when he does. He seems like he thinks it might be nice to be president. That won’t get it done.

[pissant]

Hunter vs. Thompson

http://duncanhunter2008.us/Hunter-Thompson%20flyer.pdf

[rightinthemiddle]

There has been a fear of Fred Thompson among the media types since rumors started about his campaign.

They’re afraid he’ll make Hillary look bad in a debate.

Being rather shallow themselves, they think many people will vote for him because he’s a “star.”

I like Duncan Hunter a LOT...but he’s not going to win the nomination. I wish it wasn’t so. Rudy was in my home town yesterday and I didn’t go see him.

Fred is a Conservative and Fred can win. I don’t want have to hold my nose and vote for Rudy.

[LIConFem]

Thanks, but I don't take marching orders from the Washington Post.

That said, I'm back in the undecided column between Hunter and Thompson, but only because I don't perceive any of the Democrat candidates as being as tough to beat as I once thought. And that means Hunter may have a better chance than I had imagined (in the general -- I still think Romney, Giuliani or Thompson will get the 'Pubbie nod).

[kevkrom]

Hunter’s poll numbers are the effect of running a poor campaign, not the cause of it.

[MrB]

Considering the source,

I would say that their constant flogging of Fred means he’s the one we should back.

They’re afraid of Thompson, more than anyone else on the GOP side.

[Petronski]

Fred's only tied for second, time to drop him and back the guy stuck below the margin of error!

[colorado tanker]

Fred came in too late to do much in Iowa or New Hampshire, where he’s just going through the motions. The whole ball game for him is South Carolina, where he must win to carry any “mo” into huge number of primaries close behind.

[ejonesie22]

Yeah, you are right...

Let me call National Right to Life and let them know they need to get on board too....

[processing please hold]

Agree BUMP!

[colorado tanker]

BTW, my congrats to the headline writer. Any more, most people wrongly use “floundering” instead of “foundering.”

[ejonesie22]

You left off one little factor...

[Yaelle]

Consider the source, people!

[montag813]

Saw Fred at 1:30 with a small press briefing on his social security plans on C-span2 today. He was slow, bumbling and disconnected. He doesn’t seem like there is a anything wrong with him mentally or physically, he just seems disengaged or bored. It sucks because he seemed the best alternative out there, and it seems like he doesn’t quite have the fire for what’s required of him.

[pissant]

What might that be?

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

Time to ditch Fred and join the Hunter Campaign folks.

LOL, yeah, it's time to ditch the guy who's got a time-averaged support level still over 20% for the guy who's getting spanked by Ron Paul. Sure.

[snarkybob]

“There has been a fear of Fred Thompson among the media types since rumors started about his campaign.”

I believe that the Rasmussen Daily Poll is also showing support for FDT trending down.

[pissant]

Allright, when Fred falls to 3rd place in the nationals, you can jump on Hunter’s wagon. It won’t be too late.

[ejonesie22]

The whole “if they could win” part.

[Reagan Man]

The liberal Washington Post and FR`s resident malcontent, pissant, holding hands in full anti-Fred mode. LOL Nothing new about that.

Fred just received the endorsement of the nations largest and most powerful pro-life organization, and one of the biggest grassroots movements in the America today, The National Right to Life Committee. That is a 50 state organization with over 3,000 chapters from coast to coast.

Duncan Hunter's campaign is still stuck in neutral. Its out of cash and out of time. Its time to ditch Hunter and join a winner, Fred Thompson.

[processing please hold]

LOL, yeah, it's time to ditch the guy who's got a time-averaged support level still over 20% for the guy who's getting spanked by Ron Paul. Sure.

Paul, the one who has spammers working outside the country to lift him in the polls? The 9-11 truther Paul?

[Plutarch]

BTW, my congrats to the headline writer. Any more, most people wrongly use “floundering” instead of “foundering.”

That is an excellent point. It appears that Fred's floundering on the campaign trail has led to his foundering in the polls.

Usage Note: The verbs founder and flounder are often confused. Founder comes from a Latin word meaning "bottom" (as in foundation) and originally referred to knocking enemies down; it is now also used to mean "to fail utterly, collapse." Flounder means "to move clumsily, thrash about," and hence "to proceed in confusion." If John is foundering in Chemistry 1, he had better drop the course; if he is floundering, he may yet pull through.

[rightinthemiddle]

I’m not a FredHead, yet. There’s no doubt he’s trending down...to the MSM’s delight.

Worst case, if Rudy is elected, the MSM can spend four years talking about how the country is moving left by electing a liberal Republican who supports abortion and gay marriage.

[matthew fuller]

I see that Fred is still ahead of the snake-bit Hunter. Is Hunter ahead of Paul yet?

[LibLieSlayer]

Fred will prove ALL of you wrong and return to leading numbers... I like Hunter... but he may not even be allowed in the next debate. Fred ,at his lowest point, has 3 to 5 times the support of Hunter.

LLS

[rightinthemiddle]

I wish Hunter would raise 4.5 million $ in one day like Ron Paul.

I can’t help him much there.

[Kevmo]

Thanks for the ping. Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.

Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

Here’s one showing Fred at 6%, and discussing why.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

Today, the Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 1.0 higher than yesterday, 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0

[rightinthemiddle]

Correction: I have signed up at his website, but haven’t given Fred any money.

[pissant]

Meaning this: Who do you actually prefer?

This is the primary. Get on board with the Reaganite, or we will be stuck with Rudy McRomney.

[LibLieSlayer]

I saw it too... and I disagree with your version STRONGLY!

LLS

[Kevmo]

Vote your conscience in either case.

[Petronski]

Here’s one showing Fred at 6%, and discussing why.

One what? Poll?

That's not a poll.

[Dr. Sivana]

It does mention SC. Fred has the lead.

My apologies, I only read the excerpt.

Either way, I see significant blocks of delegates being picked up by five candidates (Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, McCain and Huckabee), depending on state rules for delegate allotment. With a 15% threshold, for instance, McCain will probably get some in New Hampshire and Arizona. Giuliani will do well in the despondent Northeast and California. Romney will do well in Mormon states and states with family ties (e.g. Michigan and Mass.)Thompson will do well in the south and okay in the midwest and mountain area. Huckabee will get chunks of delegates from several southern states and maybe more if he surprises in Iowa.

This is a recipe for the late primaries (especially PA) becoming more important, and maybe even a brokered convention.

[ejonesie22]

Hey, Plutarch, you may know.

Has Mitt said anything about an explanation of why Jim Bopp could not deliver National Right to Life yet...

Just askin'

[pissant]

Plenty of time to change the dynamics, and put Hunter into the top tier. People will peel off big time from the moderates and support Hunter. It’s already happening.

[rightinthemiddle]

Fred Thompson is not Duncan Hunter’s problem. Rudy is.

I guess if all the Thompson and Huckabee folks went for Duncan he’d be looking good. But, most of them will just accept the fact that the Republican establishment is going for Rudy.

I heard from one of the “Pioneer Fundraisers” that is the case.

[kevkrom]

I just hope Mitt kept the receipts. Otherwise, getting a refund will be a b*tch.

[The Ghost of FReepers Past]

Go find the results of the FR poll that asked about who you would vote for if “can win” were not an issue. Hunter won. Voters like him better.

[Rational Thought]

You just described our current President.

“Not having the fire” is a media creation. It was also used on President Bush.

Republican candidates for President, who are not Pro-Life, don’t win the election, hence the major problem with Giuliani and Romney. Remember the last Republican nominee, who was not Pro-Life, was President Ford in 1976. I don’t look forward to another result like that.