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To: pissant; AuntB; upsdriver; WalterSkinner; airborne; Sun

I still haven’t figured out how to get links to work right when I post an article. For the Hunter Ping List.

It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts

Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.

Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Fred is at $6, which corresponds to the traders believing he has a 6% chance of winning the nomination, and discussing why. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM) Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0


2 posted on 11/15/2007 3:49:30 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

Interesting.

The reason I am voting for Duncan Hunter is he is sincere. He is real and he is a true conservative. He cares about the country and it’s people. And he is a leader.


10 posted on 11/15/2007 4:11:09 AM PST by freekitty ((May the eagles long fly our beautiful and free American sky.))
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To: Kevmo

Kevmo, your analysis is flawed.

The reason Fred thompson is at 6% and Duncan Hunter at somewhere just barely above absolute zero is that despite everything else, like Thompson’s weakness over the past few weeks, Hunter’s slight gain in the polls in the same time frame, the price of tea in China, etc. one single important fact rules, and is is this: People with money aren’t betting it on Duncan Hunter because Hunter hasn’t a snowball’s chance in hades of securing the Republican nomination, no matter whether he is at 3%, 4% OR 5% in the polls, whereas Fred Thompson does have.

Thompson remains a much better Intrade bet at $6 than Duncan Hunter at next to nothing.


17 posted on 11/15/2007 4:28:09 AM PST by John Valentine
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To: Kevmo
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter:

Yeah, all $2,777.80 of it.

22 posted on 11/15/2007 4:37:37 AM PST by John Valentine
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To: Kevmo

Interesting — and I’ll send you a freepmail about those links...


24 posted on 11/15/2007 4:43:22 AM PST by StarCMC (http://cannoneerno4.wordpress.com; http://starcmc.wordpress.com/ - The Enemedia is inside the gates.)
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