The Soft Underbelly of Europe (MARK HELPRIN)

Opinion Journal ^ | Nov 18, 2007 | MARK HELPRIN

[The Raven]

Though no longer the chief delinquent of Europe, and though not much thought is given to its strategic position, Germany is still Europe's center of gravity, territorially contiguous to more nations than any state other than Russia, with compact interior lines of communication, Western Europe's largest population, and Europe's leading economy.

Facts like these assert themselves through every kind of historical fluctuation, even if America now sees Germany, the way stop for airlifters en route to Iraq and Afghanistan, as a kind of giant aircraft carrier with sausages. But Germany is no doubt the subject of far deeper consideration on the one hand by Russia and on the other by Jihadists.

The line from Paris to Moscow, which has been traveled from west to east by the French, east to west by the Russians, and in both directions by the Germans, is a road that invariably attracts continental powers on the brink of military predominance whether in fact or the imagination. During the Cold War it was responsibly fortified and blocked, but no longer. Whereas in 1989 we kept in Europe 325,000 troops, 5,000 tanks, 25 operating air bases, and 1,000 combat aircraft, we now keep approximately a fifth of that. Whereas the Germans in 1989 could field a half-million men and 5,000 tanks, they now can deploy less than half that number.

[The Raven]

Achtung - on target.

[rbg81]

I think you mess with the Germans at your own risk.

[Hardastarboard]

Not that it matters much, but the name “German” comes from an ancient Latin word for “Warrior”. They do have a noteworthy military history. Had they historically had more land mass, and subsequently more people and resources, they might indeed have come to rule the world.

[Lucky Dog]

Throughout history wars have always had an economic component. Typically, wars have been initiated by parties who perceive the greatest opportunity for gain and the lowest risk of loss. This fact is true even for those wars identified as “religious conflicts” such as the Crusades or jihad. It is also true for those wars apparently started by a tyrant or oligarchy to create an “external enemy,” ostensibly, for its own internal stability.

While the author identifies Russia as a possible belligerent, he fails to identify how Russia would gain more than it would lose in a European conflict. Beyond access to a warm water port, something Russia has coveted since the Czars, any potential Russian economic gain would be wiped out by a tremendous loss in trade and commerce. Consequently, absent some extreme circumstance, wherein Russia would be in danger of complete collapse or Germany, the “prize” in this article, was completely undefended by NATO, Russia might be a diplomatic “bully” but hardly a credible, unprovoked, military threat.

The author’s citation of Islamic “jihadists” as a threat, on the other hand, is far more credible. However, even this group must have its economic motivations and support examined. The economic potential gain is obvious and the lack of potential loss to the direct conflict initiators is also obvious. However, it is this very lack of possible loss that makes these “jihadists” unlikely, unaided candidates for war participants.

It takes a certain amount of economic “wherewithal” to mount and sustain any military effort, even a guerrilla war or terror campaign. These “jihadists” have nothing, directly. They must rely on “state sponsors.” These “state sponsors” are the appropriate, economic, or military pressure points for western nations to initially, reduce, forestall and/or eliminate the Islamic “jihadist” threats.

In summary, credibly threaten retaliation on the Middle Eastern state sponsors, either, militarily and/or economically, and the Islamic “jihadist” threat would diminish to a nuisance level outside of their home bases.

[Citizen Tom Paine]

The Premier land power in Europe is/ will be Germany. Presently their philosophy is sex is good, booze (especially beer) is good, violence is bad. When this changes, look out! So you, your children, and grandchildren should learn German my friends.

[EQAndyBuzz]

“The author’s citation of Islamic “jihadists” as a threat, on the other hand, is far more credible. However, even this group must have its economic motivations and support examined. The economic potential gain is obvious and the lack of potential loss to the direct conflict initiators is also obvious. However, it is this very lack of possible loss that makes these “jihadists” unlikely, unaided candidates for war participants. “

Drill ANWR, more nuclear power and the use of coal will eliminate global Jihad. We beat the Soviets by bankrupting them. Do the same to the state sponsors.

[vladimir998]

You wrote:

“Not that it matters much, but the name “German” comes from an ancient Latin word for “Warrior”.”

I don’t think so. Philogolists commonly believe the word is actually a Celtic word, not Latin. It also probably doesn’t mean “warrior” but “neighbor” or maybe “battle-cry”.
At least if you believe the OED2.

[rbg81]

My observation of the Germans is as follows:
— They are very direct with a low tolerance for fluff. Don’t look to a German for empathy.
— They are (obviously) smart and good with machines. The latter can be somewhat of a weakness as they often make things more mechanically complicated than they need to be.
— They are highly disciplined and industrious
— They often suffer from group think and can have blind spots the size of Bavaria. They also prone to mood swings
— In many ways, they are the European versions of the Japanese (which explains a lot)

Given their national character, it is tough to believe that Political Correctness has taken root there. But it has. However, I am not sure how deep it goes. If push comes to shove, their old characteristics will likely emerge—with a vengence.

Truth in advertising: I am half German and half Russian. This probably explains why I often feel conflicted.

[rbg81]

Your premise assumes that they start reproducing at a higher rate in the near future. Right now they, and the rest of the Europeans, are on the fast track to extinction.

[happyathome]

I don’t have any independent knowledge on this, so please take this as an innocent - as opposed to leading - question.

The Germans for centuries were martial in their outlook, praised/glorified warfare, and produced outstanding soldiers from the lowest private on up. Just curious, do you think 60 years of the “war bad/peace good” culture has ended in Germans’ inherent warlike characteristics?

[rbg81]

I think you can say this of Europeans in general, not just the Germans.

I do believe that there are shared tendencies among ethnic groups. For this reason, the whole PC movement puzzles me. Without any clear reason, many Westerners seems to be ashamed of their history and culture. True, there have been excesses, but our accomplishments (one very level) far outstrip these.

In some ways, I am starting to question if there is something about our society that is sapping our will to survive. In short, I think there is something about our current culture that is shortcircuiting (at least temporarily) our natual tendencies. I see the West doing things as a culture that are seemingly suicidal. This includes disarming ourselves, allowing in vast numbers of immigrants, failing to reproduce, workshipping homosexuality, suppressing religion. Perhaps the most disconcerting thing is that our elites no longer seem to support the culture that spawned them.

I am not a sociologist, but if I had to guess, the answer would be a combination of feminization, materialism, and creeping socialism/liberalism. While I list these as different, I think that they are interrelated. I am not sure if we will snap out of it. Something fundamental has changed in the last 40 years.

[Albion Wilde]

Mark Helprin is a brilliant writer and an independent thinker, whose political analysis has been published in Atlantic Monthly, Wall Street Journal, Commentary, National Review, American Heritage, and elsewhere. I became aware of him in the 80s with his sweeping historical novel set in New York City, Winter's Tale, that was a deep apology for refined human behavior in the midst of the chaos of the Industrial revolution then fueling the American project. Here is the Claremont Institute bio of Mark Helprin.

Although his name is similar, Mark Helprin is not to be confused with the former ABC political news editor Mark Halperin, who tried to influence the last Presidential election in Kerry's favor.

[Shery]

I’ve lived here for 16+ years, and I agree with you. But I do feel that they refuse military reprisals because they want to be seen as having “learned their lessons from 2 WWs”. Now they think diplomacy is the end-all.

[rbg81]

If they really think that diplomacy by itself is the end all, then they have learned nothing from WWII.

[Cacique]

Bump

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[burzum]

Facts like these assert themselves through every kind of historical fluctuation, even if America now sees Germany, the way stop for airlifters en route to Iraq and Afghanistan, as a kind of giant aircraft carrier with sausages.

I've honestly never thought of Germany like that before. But I certainly will from now on!

[Atlantic Bridge]

We Germans should build our own nukes. This is by far the best assurance against state terrorism.

Building nukes would take us a few days - in difference to the Iranians.

;)