Posted on 11/18/2007 10:57:02 PM PST by BGHater
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In the first of a series on Japan's population crisis, the BBC's Philippa Fogarty looks at what the demographic changes mean for Asia's economic giant.
In Tokyo's Harajuku district, a steady stream of people are visiting the Meiji Shrine. Parents with small children dressed in traditional kimono stand in front of the shrine, clap twice and then bow, before turning to pose for a group photograph.
This is shichi-go-san, when families with children aged seven, five and three visit shrines to pray for their health and long life. It is a happy and colourful scene. But the celebrations also highlight an issue looming ever larger for Japanese society. Tourists and photographers outnumber the family groups, most of which include only one child. In the gardens around the shrine, grey is as common a hair colour as black. 'National viability' Japan is about to experience demographic change on an unprecedented scale. The birth rate has been falling steeply for half a century. In the early 1970s it passed the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman and in 2005 hit a record low of 1.26.
That same year, the population began to shrink. Forecasters say that, based on current trends, it will fall more than 20% by 2050.
But the Japanese, already famed for their longevity, are also living longer. In 2006, the average life expectancy was 82.
Japan has the world's highest proportion of elderly people. More than 20% of the population are now over the age of 65. By 2050, that figure is expected to rise to about 40%. In graph format, it resembles a top-heavy skyscraper ready to fall.
Across Japan, people know that this demographic shift constitutes an enormous challenge. It is an issue that "will not only have an impact on economic, industrial and social security issues, but ... is intertwined with the very existence and viability of Japan as a country", the Policy Council for Declining Fertility wrote in a report last year. Rural signs So what are the implications for Japan? Firstly, a low number of babies now points to a shortage of workers in the future. In 2000, two-thirds of Japan's population were between the ages of 15 and 64. By 2050, that figure will be around the 50% mark.
That means that unless the government makes a U-turn on immigration or persuades more women and retirees back to work, companies will soon be struggling to fill jobs - bringing obvious economic implications. Fewer workers also means fewer taxpayers and so less revenue for the government. But as the number of retirees goes up that same government will be facing increasing pension and healthcare costs. How it meets these is an urgent question. In the countryside, the effects of the demographic shift are already being felt. In many towns and villages, the proportion of old people is double the national average. Young people are leaving for the cities and government funding is falling. Schools are closing, buses are running less often. In one rural town, an official said that if a new building went up, it was most likely an old people's home. There are signs of change in the cities too. In northern Tokyo, the Sugamo shopping arcade has emerged as a playground for the elderly.
There are no burger bars, CD shops or coffee chains. Instead, small shops and stalls sell clothes, traditional food and health products all designed to appeal to pensioners - a reminder of their increasing power as a demographic. Parents, on the other hand, are not being similarly accommodated. In some suburbs, one young mother said, it was easier to buy clothes for the latest must-have accessory - a little dog - than for a small child. Front-runner role Of course, the demographic changes have not come out of the blue. The trends have been obvious for many years. Successive administrations have taken steps to boost the birth rate and introduce financial reforms to meet rising costs. But the problems remain. In 2006, Japan's birth rate went up slightly - children of the baby boomers are now in their mid 30s - but has since resumed its downward trend. And in October, a government panel recommended reviewing social security payments to the elderly to guard against a possible system collapse.
These problems are not unique to Japan. South Korea and Taiwan both have lower birth rates, while the average across OECD countries is 1.6. Italy, Greece and Germany have all been hard hit, while several Eastern European countries are facing population decline. Dr Kuniko Inoguchi, former minister for gender equality and social affairs, says that Japan has a front-runner role on the issue. "We have a pioneering role to play in streamlining policies to combat the declining population. Japan has such a big population that if we could come up with a solution, I think that we could help many other Asian countries to come up with their solutions." "So I hope the world will pay attention to it and that should help our government to put a higher priority on it."
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ping
I would guess that Japan will have to import more foreign workers from SE Asia and China for labor, housekeeping, nannies, etc. Basically, they’ll have multicultural problems.
Robots!
Yeah, this has been a concern for many years now; especially of the government that needs more young tax-paying drones, to support the older no-longer-paying-taxes drones...
They need to make babies. They need to shut down that fake woman project right away.
you end up with a big welfare state when nobody has kids due to sexual liberation.
Iâm not sure Japan is in a population crisis. Iâve been to Japan many times on business and the place is just teeming with people. Itâs a very overpopulated place. Taking the population down from 140 million to 120 or 110 million might just improve the quality of life for the Japanese people. What’s the alternative? Let the population grow to 150 or 160 million?
Well, if they ever needs volunteers to go over and impregnate the population, I’d be happy to sign up.
Of course they could start having more children which would be a natural reaction to preserve your race, culture and way of life. Or they could open the floodgate and allow millions of invaders to completely change thier country.
Japan is in a population crisis, and the large numbers that you are seeing are part and parcel of the problem. Why? Well, because most of those people are middle-aged (with a good number of elderly since Japan has a large ratio of the elderly). However there are very little young people. Now, the problem arises when those middle-aged people become elderly, and the number of young people becoming adults to replace them is not sufficient. In essence, there are fewer people coming up into adulthood than there are adults going into the elderly brackets. This has huge implications in terms of everything ....e.g. tax, social services, employment, etc.
Now, there is a simple solution to this ....immigration. The problem is that this 'simple' solution is not all that simple. For one, Japan is probably the most 'homogenous' (I would say xenophobic, but homogenous will do for now) society in the world. Not racist per se ....they simply like their own (and there are a number of pluses with that approach, so it shouldn't be knocked on its head). Second of all letting the numbers of immigrants that would be required to 'mend' the situation in the future would lead to a lot of problems. For instance, the fabric of Japanese society (which does depend some bit on it being ...well ....'homogenous') would change.
Now, there is the option of the japanese people simply starting to more offspring. The issue is that, as in many wealthy nations, kids do not compute (e.g. in the US it is an issue ....it is just that immigration tends to whitewash it, but take away the numbers coming in from immigration and the US is more or less like Europe when it comes to birth rates). There are more and more numbers of SINKs and DINKs (Single Income No Kids, and Dual Income No Kids) coming up all over the industrialized and industrialising world. Thus, unless you can convince people to 'sacrifice' and ave kids for the benefit of the nation, building up the population through births is an issue. Already in japan there are areas where schools are shutting down because of having no children (one documentary i watched showed a school with exactly ONE child).
Thus, they do have an issue over there, and it is one without easy answers (unless you can somehow make people start reproducing ....not having sex, but actually reproducing). Japan will either have to cut down on their living standards as well as watch their economy decline, or they will have to do what has always been anathema in Japanese culture .....allow mass immigration.
I'm sure both approaches must be unpallatable.
For now everything is alright ....but all those myriad people you saw while in Japan on biz will age some day (unless they stumble on the fountain of youth), and when they do they will not have enough young people growing up to take their place.
That is when the problem will kick in.
No Sh*t! What you are you saying is Japan should be colonized by Chinese that will transform it into another Chinese colony and kick out US military presence from Japan. Never say that again! Just immagine millions of Islamist immigrants invading US transfroming US into an Islamic state. Do you want that to happen?
I don’t know man, that’s close to those culture of death theories. I’m not saying that’s what you believe in of course.
I believe (have faith) that population is always good, even overpopulation. It is always good to have lots of people. Birth control is not a good mentality.
I didn’t say what Japan should do. If you read my post carefully, I just say what I guess Japan would do.
Psst...they are already bringing over foreign labor.
The same problem in other civilized countries. Low birth rate makes politicians worry. Politicians invite uncivilized people in to replace the civilized ones. Disaster follows.
From Rudyard Kipling's "Gods of the Copybook Headings"
On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death."
It is going to be interesting to see what absolute need, and human ingenuity create to deal with this. One can only imagine the advances this might force in terms of manufacturing, computers and systems.
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