Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

Real Clear Politics ^ | 20 November 2007 | Tom Bevan

[Spiff]

November 20, 2007

Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

TOM BEVAN

In early October I argued there was a disconnect between the way the pundits and voters viewed Fred Thompson's candidacy. Sitting here six weeks later, however, evidence continues to pour in that Thompson has completely underwhelmed the Republican electorate.

It seems like every other day a new poll comes out in a key early state showing Fred losing ground - sometimes significant ground. Indeed, if you take a look at groups that have conducted at least two surveys since early September (when Thompson officially entered the race and began campaigning) the trend lines are unmistakable:

Thompson is now running a distant fourth in Iowa, has almost dropped off the charts to sixth place in New Hampshire, is running in 3rd place in South Carolina about 4 points behind Romney and Giuliani, and has fallen well off the pace into 3rd in Florida.

The national polls aren't as important, but still reflect the same downward trend:

Thompson has shed seven and a half points in the RCP Average since he officially entered the race.

This is more than a candidate not being able to sustain a "bump." In fact, outside of the NRLC endorsement last week, it's hard to find any positive evidence for Thompson at the moment. To the contrary, backers of Thompson are now expressing doubts to the press.

So can Thompson turn it around? As we all know by now, anything is possible in politics. And, as is usually the case, it all starts with Iowa. With New Hampshire effectively off the table, Thompson's campaign cannot afford a poor showing in Iowa or it'll be on life support by the time South Carolina rolls around.

Indeed, Larry Kudlow reports in his column today that the Thompson folks are now focusing heavily on Iowa:

[Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

Watch and see if the NRLC endorsement and increased spending in Iowa spark a turnaround for Thompson. At this point, it's his best (and perhaps only) hope of staying in the game long enough to score a win in South Carolina - a state no eventual Republican nominee for president has ever lost.

[stephenjohnbanker]

I have repeatedly asked pro Romney advocates why they are voting for him (no BS) Not one has ever answered me.

[claudiustg]

-—But I do not understand why his campaign is apparently so lackadaisical, and why the electorate doesn’t recognize his virtues. -—

Yes, wasn’t he on Jay Leno once?

[familyop]

The interesting and repugnant exchanges in threads continue.

Brit Hume does ultimate knife job on Fred Thompson (VANITY)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1928594/posts

[ModelBreaker]

This has been the risk of his campaign strategy all along. Primaries depend on a ground game. Fred has none. I was at a Republican event last week. Romney, Giuliani, Huckabee and even Ron Paul had a speaker there on their behalf. FT did not.

[blackshoe]

Never interfere with your enemy when he’s in the process of damaging himself.
When two adversaries are fighting it out, let them wear each other out and then wade in.

Works in video games (HALO) and real life China (Mao during and after WWII).

[Hilltop]

Fred won’t be the nominee.

I wish him and his wife well.

In addition to having a “pretty, young wife.”, he also has a serious medical condition.

I pity you, and take no sustenance from your post.

[billbears]

Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

No, no he's just tired out after a prolonged squawk.....

[claudiustg]

Mitt is well qualified, energetic, intelligent, well organized, and has a great platform.

[CJ Wolf]

Ok, maybe it’s just a downward trend. Not good.

[GOP_Lady]

I’ll second that. I believe that covers a lot.

[org.whodat]

I have repeatedly asked pro Romney advocates why they are voting for him (no BS) Not one has ever answered me.

Have tried to get hucksters supports to tell me when he plans to deport the illegals he wants to give a free college eduction. Since they claim he doesn't support amnesty.

[org.whodat]

Mitt is well qualified, energetic, intelligent, well organized, and agrees with hillary 95% of the time.

There fixed it!

[claudiustg]

I left out optimism, the sense that we can deal with the problems that confront us — maybe the most important quality.

[org.whodat]

I have repeatedly asked pro Romney advocates why they are voting for him (no BS) Not one has ever answered me.

Wonder which one of the mittmut posters is the stalker??

[eyedigress]

Fred Thompson can lead this Country. Can he beat Hillary? Not with this discourse. The ones on this thread are given with a modicon of respect. Give an answer, because I support Senator Thompson but cannot imagine a Hillary explosion. Who Wins?

[Spiff]

Second place in the national polls is "demise" now, is it?

You just earned the "Fred's Not Dead Badge." Congrats!

[Swordfished]

1994 Flyer Reveals Romney's Conservative Positions

[GOP_Lady]

Kind of like Ronald Reagan (a little) in a way, possibly? Americans really want someone that is optimistic (unless your a dem, of course). I don’t think the other candidates show any optimism (maybe you could say Huckabee does somewhat).

[ejonesie22]

Yet you leave off “Conservative”...

It’s ok, 86% of Freepers would do the same thing...

[Spiff]

I have repeatedly asked pro Romney advocates why they are voting for him (no BS) Not one has ever answered me.

Because we know that you're just trolling.