Court allows Musharraf rule to continue

The Globe and Mail ^ | November 23, 2007 | SAEED SHAH

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PAKISTAN POLITICS

In boost to legitimacy, opposition parties appear likely to participate in election SAEED SHAH

Special to The Globe and Mail

ISLAMABAD -- "Dismissed." With that abrupt judgment yesterday, the hand-picked new Chief Justice of Pakistan swept away the last legal challenge to President Pervez Musharraf's continued rule, just as other pieces of the general's survival strategy were falling into place.

When General Musharraf put Pakistan under a state of emergency more than three weeks ago, firing the judiciary, imprisoning thousands of critics, gagging the media and postponing elections indefinitely, his demise was much predicted. Opposition parties and international opinion were united against him. The de facto martial law plunged Pakistan into a constitutional crisis.

However, he now appears to be on the cusp of pulling off a remarkable act of longevity, confirming another five-year term as president. He managed to keep his key patron, the United States, on side throughout. The masses did not enter the streets. He recently announced an election date: Jan. 8.

In the past few days, more than 5,000 political activists imprisoned under the emergency regulations were reportedly released. And, with yesterday's Supreme Court verdict, Gen. Musharraf is preparing to be transformed into plain Mr. Musharraf, shedding his uniform after eight years of army rule in order to serve as a civilian.

More World Stories Opposition says military too optimistic TV industry braces for the worst 'There is reason for optimism,' NATO chief says Court allows Musharraf rule to continue Pakistan's emergency measures prompt expulsion Does Harper want out of Africa? Go to the World section There are strong indications that the state of emergency will be lifted - "sooner than you expect" Attorney-General Malik Qayyum said yesterday - before the election, bringing Pakistan back to some sort of normalcy.

In the biggest boost yet to Gen. Musharraf's democratic legitimacy, it looks increasingly likely that major opposition parties will participate in the election, as their muted boycott disintegrates.

Benazir Bhutto, leader of the country's largest political party who had previously described the election as a "sham," yesterday indicated strongly that her Pakistan People's Party would take part.

"We believe if you leave the field open, then there is no need for rigging, there is no need for a contest. But if you give the best of your ability, then the other side is forced to expose that it does not command legitimacy or support," Ms. Bhutto said. "We have entered our nomination papers under protest."

U.S. President George W. Bush praised Gen. Musharraf this week for keeping his "word" about holding the elections and relinquishing the army job. But not all the steps taken under the guise of the emergency are to be reversed: Gen. Musharraf has removed the independent judiciary, and they are not coming back.

As a result, the pro-government judges, led by Chief Justice Abdul Hamid Dogar, were able to declare Gen. Musharraf the lawful president yesterday, despite a constitution that says the president cannot hold another position, such as army chief.

Gen. Musharraf has also installed an interim "neutral" government, packed with his supporters, to oversee the election period.

Gen. Musharraf has weathered the storm and scored some tactical successes. But he is by no means in an unassailable position. News that former prime minister Nawaz Sharif is set to make another attempt to return to Pakistan, apparently to take part in the impending election, could upset the general's carefully laid plans. But the participation of two-time leader Mr. Sharif in the poll would also give it the kind of legitimacy that Gen. Musharraf craves.

"It is becoming increasingly apparent that the opposition itself is deeply divided. There is disarray in the ranks of the opposition and I think General Musharraf understands this," said Farzana Shaikh, associate fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London.

Mr. Sharif, who was deposed as prime minister in 1999 when Gen. Musharraf seized power, had led the calls for boycotting the election. However, yesterday it was reported that he was desperate to get to Pakistan before the Nov. 26 deadline for filing his election papers. (Candidates must appear in person.) He is to hold talks today with the Saudi royal family about returning to Pakistan.

Mr. Sharif's return, if it occurs, would create an unpredictable new factor. His following is strongest in the Punjab province, which would be galvanized by his presence to the detriment of the political party that has supported the general in parliament for the past five years.

Removing the uniform, thereby cutting his formal ties to Pakistan's army, will be a major risk for Gen. Musharraf. The new army chief, most likely General Ashfaq Kayani, will develop his own authority.

"Once he [Musharraf] is not in uniform, he will not be able to call the shots as in the past," retired general Talat Masood said. "The power equation will change. He draws his power from the military."

Getting to the election is one set of challenges, but Gen. Musharraf will confront more difficulties when he must oversee the formation of a government that will support him. He will also need to garner a two-thirds majority in parliament to get through a vote legitimizing the emergency.

Assuming that Ms. Bhutto does take part in the election, it is likely that Gen. Musharraf will have to forge a power-sharing deal with her. Such an arrangement was attempted for months before the emergency but failed.

"The fact is that in January or February, Musharraf will still have to do a deal with Benazir Bhutto to get a constitutional amendment to protect the unconstitutional steps he's taken," said Najam Sethi editor of Pakistan's Daily Times newspaper. "At the end of the day, he will have to share power, and if he doesn't, there'll be another constitutional crisis."

[HiTech RedNeck]

banana republic

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I am thankful Musharraf has a chance he has been a friend to our nation and they do things different there than our type of politics!

[HiTech RedNeck]

banana republic, the only difference with them is they have the coconuts.

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I would call you a member of the fair weather friend club