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Live Thread: Australian Federal Election Count
24th November 2007

Posted on 11/23/2007 10:55:46 PM PST by naturalman1975

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To: Grimmy

Bolt has been calling it for Labor for weeks. He’s pretty much given up. He could be right. But that’s the context.


21 posted on 11/23/2007 11:24:26 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

Ignore early exit polls, according to 2004 early exit polls John Kerry is US president today.

Winston Churchill was bounced by English people right after he saved England and helped win WW2, for not much more of a reason that they wanted to put bad memories behind them, start anew and be entertained. Let’s hope and pray that John Winston Howard and his Liberal Party keeps governing majority.

If election is close it may come down to the less populated western part of Australia. How is it usually leaning and any indication on the mood there now? Thanks.


22 posted on 11/23/2007 11:26:28 PM PST by CutePuppy (If you don't ask the right questions you may not get the right answers)
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To: naturalman1975

Good to know. I don’t read much of Bolt so had no context.


23 posted on 11/23/2007 11:27:21 PM PST by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: CutePuppy

There are three main opinion polls. Two day its too close to call, one gives it to Labor.


24 posted on 11/23/2007 11:27:35 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

First figures are showing fairly large swings to Labor in a number of seats including Braddon.


25 posted on 11/23/2007 11:31:38 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

As at 6:29:14 PM.

Liberal/National Coalition
Votes: 4,269
Percent: 61.57%
Swing: -2.90%

Australian Labor Party
Votes: 2,665
Percent: 38.43%
Swing: +2.90%


26 posted on 11/23/2007 11:32:47 PM PST by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today's.)
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To: All

First figures suggest Liberals retain McMillan.
Braddon, Labor ahead but still in doubt.
Robertson, Lib ahead, but still in doubt.
Dobell, Labor ahead.


27 posted on 11/23/2007 11:37:53 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

Bennelong (the Prime Ministers own seat and a marginal) first results suggest no swing.


28 posted on 11/23/2007 11:39:56 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: Dundee

Looks like the liberal/national coalition is leading by your numbers, just shy of a 2-1 margin, 62%-38%? Is this a good sign? What does the swing % mean?


29 posted on 11/23/2007 11:40:31 PM PST by rawhide
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To: naturalman1975
Marginal seat count link
30 posted on 11/23/2007 11:41:15 PM PST by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today's.)
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To: rawhide

It’s better than being behind, but these early results are predominantly coming from places that are fairly safe for the Liberals and Nationals.

The swing - basically, it’s how much the vote has changed since the last election. Labor is looking for a swing of over 4 or 5% in their favour to win, currently it is getting less than that, but it’s really too early to say much.


31 posted on 11/23/2007 11:42:27 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: rawhide

Someone explained their preference voting to me earlier today and I think I can answer your swing question.

The swing percent is how far a drop bear would fly if launched from a trebuchet with a counter weight equaling the difference in weight of the primary ballot stacks counted so far.

Their process is kind of confusing to me, so I could well have that part wrong.


32 posted on 11/23/2007 11:45:16 PM PST by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: rawhide
Looks like the liberal/national coalition is leading by your numbers, just shy of a 2-1 margin, 62%-38%? Is this a good sign? What does the swing % mean?

It's too early yet to draw any conclusions. The % swing is the change for/against since the last election.

33 posted on 11/23/2007 11:46:35 PM PST by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today's.)
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To: Dundee

What is the latest update?


34 posted on 11/23/2007 11:48:21 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: naturalman1975

Bennelong (PMs seat) - 10% swing to Labor, which would remove the PM, but on early figures. Not being called yet.
Flinders - (Liberal currently) - swing to Labor, but Liberals should retain.
Gilmore (Liberal currently) - in doubt.
Corangamite (Liberal currently - marginal). In doubt.
Bass (Liberal currently - very marginal). In doubt.


35 posted on 11/23/2007 11:49:29 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: MinorityRepublican

What is the latest update?


Exit Poll: Howard Loses Oz Election
Updated:07:07, Saturday November 24, 2007

Australian Prime Minister John Howard has lost his bid for a fifth successive term in power, a Sky News Australia exit poll predicts.

PM confident as he votesThe Conservative leader has been in power for 11 years, but was trailing in opinion polls behind opposition Labour leader Kevin Rudd.

The result will be revealed in the next few hours.

The Sky exit poll of 31 marginal government seats forecast a 30-seat gain for Rudd, more than enough for him to form a Government.

The exit poll of 2,787 voters by Auspoll gave Labour 53% of the vote and the ruling Liberal party 47%.

“Its very likely that Labor has won this election. Something in the order of 30-odd seats,” said Auspoll’s John Armitage.


36 posted on 11/23/2007 11:49:53 PM PST by Senator Goldwater
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To: MinorityRepublican

Liberal/National Coalition 38,378 57.81 -1.68
Australian Labor Party 28,011 42.19 +1.68


37 posted on 11/23/2007 11:50:24 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: MinorityRepublican

As at 6:48:14 PM.

Liberal/National Coalition
Votes: 32,835
Percent: 58.74%
Swing: -1.99%

Australian Labor Party
Votes: 23,068
Percent: 41.26%
Swing: +1.99%


38 posted on 11/23/2007 11:50:52 PM PST by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today's.)
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To: All

At 6.54pm.

Coalition 3.
Labor 0.
Unknown. 147.


39 posted on 11/23/2007 11:55:21 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

At 6.57.

Coalition 3
Labor 2
Uncalled 145


40 posted on 11/23/2007 11:58:31 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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