[ScaniaBoy]

In my opnion an interesting article, even very interesting. However, before we start dancing for joy that the EU is falling down, one should note that Sarkozy actually (at least partly) has beaten the unions and the strike appears to be crumbling. Also, the last few days the spread between the Italian and German 10-year bonds have declined (slightly and still at more than 35 basis points, but still...) and that the French will not if they can avoid it start a full attack on the ECB until the reform treaty has been agreed to by all the national parliaments (or by referenda) which will probably not happen before the spring 2009.

But even with these caveats the article paints a bleak picture of the future of the eurozone (the EU countries that use the euro).

The real news in A E-P's piece is the part about the fact that the various treaties make it possible to impose currency regulations.

[ScaniaBoy]

Ping!

[Nervous Tick]

>> In my opnion an interesting article, even very interesting.

I’m voting “very interesting”.

[padre35]

Interesting ScaniaBoy, normally a currency can be issued in mass through a easing of credit terms, why aren’t the Europeans doing that to weaken a too strong currency?

That and my goodness the “fix” is in, politicians care very little for what the people have to say, they will end up ratifying that EU document come hell or collapse if they feel like it is needed.

[aroundabout]

'He will have allies soon enough, once the housing bubbles collapse in Spain and across the Med. Mr Zapatero will not be in power for long in Madrid. Mr Prodi is on borrowed time in Rome. A new political order will soon take hold in much of Europe, bringing in a new wave of prickly national populists."

Good news here and the article has left out the fact the strike in France has all but collapsed and the unions handed a historic defeat.

[Nervous Tick]

A couple intriguing points (among many more in the article):

...these bond spreads are telling us that liquidity is drying up and that monetary policy is now too tight for the eurozone, as it is across much of the developed world...The whole central banking fraternity seems behind the curve, spooked by residual (lagging) inflation - and prisoners of a defective economic model (Neoclassical/New Keynesian synthesis). This is how the 1930 recession metastasized...

(That's certainly food for thought, even if it does run counter to my personal views.)

This "disturbing" capital movement is occurring right now. Portfolio inflows into the eurozone reached a record EUR46.2bn in September. China, Asian wealth funds, Petrodollar sheikdoms, and now even Nigeria, have all joined a stampede into euros, utterly disregarding the underlying reality that Europe is in no better shape the United States itself. It is in worse shape, though this is disguised by the cycle. It is much worse in terms of economic dynamism and demographics.

[stripes1776]

The real news in A E-P's piece is the part about the fact that the various treaties make it possible to impose currency regulations.

I am not sure what "currency regulations" means. Does this mean that each country can have a different policy for the Euro?

[SAJ]

What the devil is he talking about regards EurIBOR? It hasn’t varied half a point either direction since August? March EurIBOR futures settled at 4.31% (95.69) Thursday, and the mkt is dead, dead, dead.

[Leisler]

Evans-Pritchard wrote a book called “Blood In the Streets”, about twenty years ago. He’s kind of a scare monger, but maybe he will get one right.

I understood the idea of the EU.
And the Euro.
I never thought the Euro first befor the EU was a good thing.
It kind of seemed like a currency fait accompli, shoved down the Europeans political throats.

I’m a litte suspicious of elites in general, and specially European ones vs. their own populations, regardless of the goals. The ends do not justify the means.

Also, China has really ripped up the old ways of measuring things. I don’t know how much older pre-China, pre-Soviet collapse world economics can guide us.

We are moving into a intellect world. Europe is well prepared.

I’m not a big Harry Truman fan, but he said that, “If you see ten problems coming down the road at you, don’t worry, eight will go off the road before they get to you.”

I think that is the case here.

[JasonC]

Sorry, the article is hyperventilating nonsense.

The EU economy, no great shakes to start with to be sure, is not going to roll over and die because the Euro is strong. The EU central bank can cut their IRs anytime it likes. All currencies are losing value compared to commodities (gold, oil, etc), the Euro just isn't falling as fast as some others. IRs are too low worldwide, everybody is trying to manage their economy exclusively by printing more, while credit standards remain unsound, savings rates abysmal, geopolitical policies completely irresponsible, etc. All will just end in another bout of stagflation, until people get serious again. China and the other BRICs will be the gainers, the old world (EU and US) the losers.

[Hydroshock]

Economy/Credit/Housing Issues Ping List

If you want on or off this list let me know.

[ex-Texan]

The Euro is heading towards $ 1.75 next year. That may help stimulate the U.S. economy but will certainly upset people working for factories in France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal to name a few. What do we manufacture here in the U.S. today?

14,833 U.S. Companies have been taken over by foreign corporations since 1978.

In the meantime . . .

The Finance Industry in California is Laying Off Hundreds Right Now

By next year the number of unemployed mortgage clerks, realtors, bankers, construction workers, investment advisers, automobile finance clears will number in the thousands. As many as 20% of Californians were working at least part time as realtors. Another 5% - 10% were using their real estate license to work in mortgage lending. All those high paying jobs will be gone for at least ten years.

Food service workers hardly make $ 10/ hr. Unless they are working for a great family owned corporation like 'In-n-Out Burger.' The problem with finding employment in the food service industry is that you MUST speak fluent Spanish. "No Gringos Allowed!" Fast food restaurants have Mexican employees who taunt Anglo customers openly.

Have fun looking for work in California.

[bruinbirdman]

"French will not if they can avoid it start a full attack on the ECB "

The ECB is Germany. France can complain all it wants. Germany does not see it the same way.

Sarkozy can use his problems to institute more and quicker reforms.

yitbos

[LachlanMinnesota]

History rolls on, in spite of the common man’s condition, and only time will tell when the storming of the Bastille must again take place...