Posted on 11/25/2007 10:46:21 AM PST by jamese777
In states holding Primaries or Caucuses on February 5, the races for the Republican and Democratic Presidential nominations look broadly similar to the competition on a national level.
Data from the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows New York Senator Hillary Clinton attracting 41% of the vote in the twenty Super Tuesday states. Illinois Senator Barack Obama trails Clinton with support from 23% of Likely Primary Voters in those twenty states while John Edwards is the top choice for 14%. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is preferred by 5% while Delaware Senator Joe Biden attracts 3% support.
In the race for the Republican Presidential nomination, Rudy Giuliani attracts 27% in the February 5 states and holds a double digit lead. Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thomson and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee are tied for second with 14% support. Arizona Senator John McCain is close behind at 11% while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney earns the vote from 10% of Likely Primary Voters in these states. Texas Congressman Ron Paul is supported by 4%.
These results are based upon survey interviews conducted for the two weeks ending November 21. Voter preferences in the February 5 states may shift dramatically based upon what happens in the early voting states.
The first voting in Election 2008 will take place in Iowa on January 3. Currently, polling in that state shows a marked difference from the national numbers. Among Democrats in Iowa, there is a virtual tie among Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. Clinton leads in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. But, the Sunshine State is the only early voting state where her lead matches her dominance in the national polls.
Among Iowa Republicans, Romney has the lead. While he struggles in the national polls and the February 5 states, Romney also leads in New Hampshire and is tied for the lead in South Carolina. Giuliani leads in Florida.
Results cited in this article represent a combined total for the Super Tuesday states. Sample sizes for individual states are too small for detailed analysis.
States participating in the February 5 festivities include Alabama, Alaska (caucuses), Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucuses), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (Dem primary), Illinois, Minnesota (caucuses), Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (Dem caucuses), New York, North Dakota (caucuses), Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah.
IMO, on February 6, we will know ...
Other than sturm and drang, Iowa and NH are just a blip.
So we will have a liberal, no matter what party wins.
I suspect that on the republican side, Thompson will take it...
The reason is; The more people learn about Thompson, the more they will like him and vote for him. The more they find out about Rudy, the less they will like him and vote for someone else.
Fred Thompson is our only hope! The other conservative candidates just don’t have enough numbers to pull it off, sorry to say. The other top tier candidates just aren’t conservative enough for me.
It’s going to be Rudy vs. Hillary - only those here who have blinders on can’t see that...I saw how the false hope in 2006 was a disappointment when we lost over 35 Rep seats...It doesn’t help to prop up our own hopes when the reality is just not the same thing.
“It’s going to be Rudy vs. Hillary - only those here who have blinders on can’t see that...”
So you like Hillary, do you? There’s no way Rudy can beat her. He’s too much like her. Even if he did pull it off, we’d be worse off than with her.
Yes, if people who say they’re conservative don’t vote for Rudy in the primaries - then it won’t be Hillary! vs Rudy!
Simply wrong. In SurveyUSA’s recent state-by-state, head-to-head polls between Rudy and Hillary, he whips her in enough electoral college “blue/purple” states to win with a slightly larger EC vote than Bush did in 2004. He loses none of the “red” states, either, contrary to all the hogwash posted here on FR. And the way Hillary is slipping, it’s possible for Rudy to win with a very sizeable margin of victory. Those same polls all show Romney and Thompson losing to Hillary, although McCain beats her slightly better than does Rudy.
I’m VERY conservative, and I go by the ULTRA conservative William F. Buckely’s rule: “I vote for the most rightward candidate who has a reasonable chance to win.” So that means, for me, Rudy, unless Fred improves remarkably in head-to-head polls with Hillary. I’m simply not going to help nominate another Dole, or, for that matter, another Goldwater. You have to have a shot at winning.
If your very conservative, why would you even consider voting for a liberal like Rudy? BTW, you are not going to have a “winning shot”, if the choice is between two liberals. It’s heads they win, tails we loose...
Maybe, IO and NH do provide momentum, and Rudy is stuck below 30%,and has been for months.
I suspect that we will see some candidate start to motor towards the 45-50% after NH and IO and SC.
the early super Tuesday this year...and all of the extra states participating, virtually negates IA and NH in their importance relative to past cycles.
There are only three players on the larger stage: Fred, Rudy and Hillary. Look for Fred to take SC and energize his campaign. Rudy has always been well positioned to do very well on Feb 5th.
Huckabee doesn't have the money, McCain doesn't have the new-car smell and Romney doesn't have the traction to play with the big dogs.
Sure, things could change a lot from now until IA...but there's not much time after IA to change much of anything.
I expect Huckabee to end up backing Fred, and McCain will back Rudy BEFORE Feb 5th. In a 3-man race on Feb 5th, I expect Rudy to take about 3/5 of the delegates, Fred the other 40% (but only if he wins SC outright with 50+%) and that Romney will go home nearly empty-handed except for Utah.
However it does shake out I don't see more than two men standing after Feb 5th...and Rudy is strong enuff to have it nearly locked up by then.
The more people learn about Thompson, the more they will like him and vote for him.
Since he officially joined the race, and “more people learned about him” he has gone backwords in the polls. From Rasmussen, he has gone from a high of 28% in the beginning, down to 12-14% this past week. That means since he has begun his campaigning he has lost half of his support.
If Rudy is nominated and wins social conservatives will have been effectively neutered in influencing national policy. Republican politicians will no longer have any need to try and appeal to the religious right. Now to a lot of people, including many Republicans, this isn't necessarily a bad thing. To those others for whom social issues are paramount, this is a nightmare scenario.
The GOP has it's chance to redefine the electoral majority with Rudy...he take the positions of the GOP less "social issues" and states that social issues are matters for the States to decide.
There might be a few million who don't believe him...but he will bring million from the great "middle" to the GOP side of the ticket.
Whether that's good or bad people will have to decide for themselves. There won't be many on FR that are joyous at his nomination but FR is not representative of the general voting public...and probably not even representative of GOP primary voters.
Still, I would bet that the MAJORITY of Freepers would vote for Rudy over Hillary in a general election, with about 25% sitting it out or voting 3rd party if one emerges.
Jim could verify that if he'd put up such a poll.
Perhaps we'll see such a poll after the primaries --should Rudy gain the nomination. Right now there are just too many people here in denial towards Rudy's consistent lead in the polls and they are really counting on an 11th hour comeback by one of the 2%-14% contenders.
Nope, it’s never been that way and never will be. There are always degrees of desirability among candidates. And Pres. Rudy will be vastly, vastly better than Pres. Hillary.
I am hoping for Fred, but one thing I will NOT do is sit out this election and let Hillary take it without my vote being involved.
At least with Rudy, if WW3, 4 or whatever label you want to use goes down, I’d feel better with him in charge than Hillary. I don’t even want to contemplate that one.
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