Posted on 11/27/2007 5:59:46 AM PST by PlainOleAmerican
While it may not be popular among third tier campaign operatives, it is fair to make the prediction that the Republican primary race will most likely soon result in a two man tussle for the party nod. Here’s why…
Conservative voters are looking closely, with a jaundice eye, at the virtual buffet of Republican candidates seeking the RNC nomination for ’08. Most of them are either disenchanted or flatly angry with the Bush administration and the Republican congress for their less than conservative record of national leadership.
It’s conservative voters who tossed Republicans from control of both houses of congress in 2006 and it is conservatives who will either advance a truly conservative nominee, or toss Republicans from the White House in ‘08.
(Excerpt) Read more at canadafreepress.com ...
That's just as true in the general election, as in the primaries. Which is why the Republicans will lose in '08, if they don't nominate candidates that satisfy the base.
The reason Giuliani still leads is because his "moderate" vote support is all clustered behind him. The conservatives have their votes all split up behind various candidates. Once candidates start dropping out, conservatives will start to line up behind one candidate & that candidate will have many more numbers than Rudy.
Rudy supporters are not counting on conservative support in the general election, they are counting on replacing conservative votes with moderate Democrat voters who won’t vote for Hillary.
Much like the Paul campaign, which appeals mostly to the hardcore anti-war movement across the aisle, Giuliani is looking for WOT votes from the RNC and social liberal votes from Independents and Democrats in the general election.
Rudy is Hillary domestically, just tough on terror.
Exactly...
Hope you’re right, but conservatives seem very confused over which candidates are or are not conservative today.
Some actually think RP is conservative???
He is weak on that too...
Why do people think voters angry with Bush over his left leaning record, will support a candidate left of Bush?
“America isn’t New York City and Red State conservatives are not New York Republicans. They won’t line up behind a Blue State moderate in 2008 and anyone who believes that they will is in for a huge surprise next November.”
To me a “Moderate”=Liberal Socialist ala Rudy, and might as well vote for a CommieCrat.
America doesn’t need two Leftist Political Parties as the Republican Party Leadership seems to think is the trend.
It will be Fred ‘08.
Well, I don't agree with Ron Paul's views on the war at all - but many of his other views actually are "conservative". As I understand it, he is for smaller government & that is the cornerstone of conservatism. It's too bad that most Republican politicians these days don't understand that.
It depends on what you mean by leads. Giuliani can only get about 25% to 30% of the vote. In 2000, McCain received 33% of the primary votes. That means the other candidates are getting 70% to 75% of the vote. Can Rudy win enough delegates to win on the first ballot. I don't think so, which is why he won't get the nomination.
Rely on idiot Polls and what do you get? Idiot statistics formed by idiot polling idiots!
Agreed!
He’s not for smaller government, he’s for anarchy, no government, no national defense, no foreign policy, etc.
Nothing conservative about that...
You and I are for smaller less intrusive government and lower taxes, which mostly means, end the social spending by restoring some form of moral self-restraint.
Correct, so long as the 70% opposed to Rudy agree on who to support. If the column is right and it comes down to Thompson vs. Giuliani, will that 70% line up behind Thompson?
It will be either Thompson or Romney. I expect McCain to throw his support behind Giuliani [his ideological soul mate] or Thompson, his personal friend. Huckabee is a wild card given his being a conservative on social issues and a liberal on the economy and immigration. I believe we are going to have a brokered convention with no candidate having enough delegates to win on the first ballot.
It will be very interesting to see who Hunter, Tancredo and McCain endorse.
Thompson really does need to get much more agressive at this stage. Thursday night will be very telling as to his sense of what needs to happen, if he is to begin to lock in conservative support.
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