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Does the Fear of Jail Actually Prevent Crime?
Fox News ^ | November 27, 2007 | John Lott, Jr.

Posted on 11/28/2007 5:24:39 AM PST by libstripper

According to a brand-new and extensively covered study by the JFA Institute, a George Soros funded group, the U.S. prison system doesn’t deter crime and is "a costly and harmful failure.”

Prison is supposedly so useless that the U.S. prison population could be cut in half with no effect on crime.

This distrust of prison reducing crime is not new, but many have a hard time believing the simplest rule of economics: if you make something more costly, people do less of it. People accept that this principle applies to what we buy in grocery stores, but not to “bad” things that people might do.

So how plausible is deterrence? Let us take a couple examples from sports.

When college basketball’s Atlantic Coast Conference increased the number of referees per game from two to three in 1978, the number of fouls dropped by 34 percent. Why? Basketball players fouled less often because they were more likely to get caught. In fact, the actual decline in fouling was probably even larger, since fouls that may have gone unnoticed by two referees were more likely to be caught when there were three officials.

Baseball players respond no differently. The American League has more batters hit by pitchers than the National League, but this difference only occurred after 1973, when the American League removed its pitchers from the batting lineup in favor of designated hitters. Since American League pitchers no longer worried that they themselves would be hit in retaliation if they hit an opposing batter, they began throwing more beanballs.

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: crime; johnlott; lott; prison; soros
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To: libstripper

Absolutely it will lower crime rate. Imagine how much crime here would be if nobody got sent to prison.


61 posted on 11/28/2007 11:15:19 AM PST by apocalypto
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To: cripplecreek; libstripper

CC, that ‘in public’ stuff is a crock, but I know whereof you speak. ;o)

OTOH, look at the number of repeat offenders. It would be difficult, if not pointless, to deny the ‘can’t make it outside’ factor. All you have to do in jail is sit there.

IMHO, the baseball pitcher analogy is wayyyy out there.


62 posted on 11/28/2007 1:26:43 PM PST by Froufrou
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To: Brytani

We should determine who can be saved, and who those are that are career criminals.

Anyone that has taken a life...is dead.
Anyone that dealt drugs in an organization...is dead.
Any molester or rapist...is dead.

Remove all contact from the outside and teach the rest that they must EARN the right to walk the streets freely.


63 posted on 11/28/2007 1:27:59 PM PST by wizr ("Right now, the burden is all on the American soldiers. Right now, Hope Rides Alone." Sgt. E Jeffer)
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To: wizr

I agree with your remedies, but isn’t it a bit tough to decide on the others [who can be ‘saved?’]


64 posted on 11/28/2007 1:29:45 PM PST by Froufrou
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To: libstripper

Not AMERICAN Jails!!

Cable TV, exercise rooms, libraries, three square meals a day, medical coverage, dental benefits - a lot of our inmates live better than the people paying the taxes to support them.

We should run our jails like the Romans ran their sulfur mines and quarries. Recidivism would be ZERO - for the survivors.


65 posted on 11/28/2007 1:30:38 PM PST by ZULU (Non nobis, non nobis Domine, sed nomini tuo da gloriam. God, guts and guns made America great.)
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To: libstripper
Does the Fear of Jail Actually Prevent Crime?

It does in my case....I can promise anyone of it.

66 posted on 11/28/2007 1:30:50 PM PST by wardaddy (I'm praying for Fred......our only decent hope......)
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To: paul51
It’s hard to victimize people on the outside when you are locked in a cell. That’s good enough for me

"Thank God we got penitentiaries" - Richard Pryor

67 posted on 11/28/2007 1:31:35 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: Perdogg
When college basketball’s Atlantic Coast Conference increased the number of referees per game from two to three in 1978, the number of fouls dropped by 34 percent. Why?

Because Duke was playing?

68 posted on 11/28/2007 1:34:16 PM PST by GOP_Raider (Television is all Tommy Westphall's fault, damn it!)
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To: Froufrou

Something kinda interesting.

People always talk about how tough Joe Arpaio’s jail is but I don’t see it that way. Here in Jackson county Michigan there is no going outside to the yard for sunshine or fresh air because there is no yard. Inmates stay in their cell or in the dormitory for 24 hours a day. There is no scenery to look at because the glass is frosted and set back behind a barred walkway for guards.

Prison inmates on the other hand said that most of their time was their own. They had places to be at certain times throught the day but otherwise they said they had a normal life. They had just about everything in the prison we have outside the prison.


69 posted on 11/28/2007 1:49:43 PM PST by cripplecreek (Only one consistent conservative in this race and his name is Hunter.)
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To: GOP_Raider

Mike Gminiski played.


70 posted on 11/28/2007 2:55:43 PM PST by Perdogg (Elections have consequences.)
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To: libstripper

Not speaking to jail exactly, but pertinent: Per Ann Coulter: “If the death penalty doesn’t deter murder, how come Michael Moore is still alive and I’m not on death row?”


71 posted on 11/28/2007 3:14:41 PM PST by MayflowerMadam
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To: ClearCase_guy
We should have the options of public humiliation and pain. Whipping, scarlet letter, stocks... oldies but goodies.

A friend of a friend received a speeding ticket. The state said they'd waive the ticket from his record and he wouldn't pay a fine if he went through a driver's safety class. He thought that was great. $40 and 2 hours and he can get out of any ticket! He's gotten out of 6 tickets in the last year and doesn't hesitate to speed if the mood strikes him.

No insurance premium hike. No jail time. No huge fine. No reason to drive safely.

72 posted on 11/28/2007 6:28:41 PM PST by Marie (Unintended consequences.)
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To: wizr
"We should determine who can be saved, and who those are that are career criminals.

How do we determine that?

Lie detectors are not reliable, a PET Scan will show slower firing of neurons in the frontal lobe of murders and other violent criminals yet this same brain scan can be seen in a person in deep concentration, high intelligence or meditating.

What you're saying is an impossible task. At best, a person can make a educated guess, based on the actions and words of a criminal to decide if they will offend again. With our current recidivism rates, we've failed at this.

Anyone that has taken a life...is dead.

Anyone that dealt drugs in an organization...is dead

Any molester or rapist...is dead..

With some exceptions added to this, I agree.

Remove all contact from the outside and teach the rest that they must EARN the right to walk the streets freely.

How should they ear that right?

Keeping a clean record in prison is a priority for anyone who is up for parole and many inmates turn into little angels to achieve freedom. Within a year or two prior to a first parole hearing, it's not unusual to find an inmate who's been a discipline risk, tested positive for drugs or gang affiliations turn into choir boys. The parole board demands it and prisoners know that.

As for removing all contact with the outside world, look realistically at that. If we give the person a chance to "prove" themselves ready to live in society yet remove society from them, they never learn to live anywhere but the "culture" they came from. How do you teach a person to live a right life in society without giving them experience?

73 posted on 11/29/2007 5:49:40 AM PST by Brytani
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To: cripplecreek

Point being, small wonder they can’t wait to return.


74 posted on 11/29/2007 7:37:36 AM PST by Froufrou
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To: libstripper

>Prison is supposedly so useless that the U.S. prison population could be cut in half with no effect on crime

Where? In Zaire?

That statement is so bone dry stupid that I quit reading right there, although I will suggest that the author can have that half move into his neighborhood...


75 posted on 11/29/2007 1:12:14 PM PST by bill1952 ("all that we do is done with an eye towards something else." - Aristotle)
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To: libstripper

In my case, most definitely it does ... (not that I would commit crime, but I’d kill myself before I’d go there)


76 posted on 11/29/2007 1:13:28 PM PST by Scythian
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To: VOA

chances are they’ll be somebody’s “punk” for the duration.

Given todays so called public education sysytems, I think many might look forward to that, if you catch my drift...


77 posted on 11/29/2007 1:16:50 PM PST by bill1952 ("all that we do is done with an eye towards something else." - Aristotle)
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To: cripplecreek

Lots of the criminal activity in my area is done by people who have more benefits inside jail or prison than they can get for themselves outside. They seem to be unable to make any decisions that help them to have a real future.


78 posted on 11/29/2007 6:35:36 PM PST by ridesthemiles
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To: mad_as_he$$

Actually I’ve read where the death penalty is MORE expensive after you get done with the endless appeals, lawyer costs, etc. I’m not against the death penalty, just seems that we could streamline the process a bit. On the other hand, I’d rather be dead than live the rest of my life in prison.


79 posted on 11/29/2007 6:40:24 PM PST by geopyg (Don't wish for peace, pray for Victory.)
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To: libstripper

Any economist will tell you that downside risk is a barrier to entry to any business proposition.

Of course, that assumes the decision-maker is rational, as many lawbreakers are not.


80 posted on 11/29/2007 6:44:01 PM PST by P.O.E.
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