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Estimate of AIDS cases in U.S. rises
Washington Post.com ^ | 12/1/07 | David Brown

Posted on 12/01/2007 7:23:37 AM PST by gusopol3

Estimate of AIDS cases in U.S. rises New test places the rate of infection 50 percent higher

The Washington Post Estimate of AIDS Cases In U.S. Rises

By David Brown

updated 4:00 a.m. ET, Sat., Dec. 1, 2007 New government estimates of the number of Americans who become infected with the AIDS virus each year are 50 percent higher than previous calculations suggested, sources said yesterday.

For more than a decade, epidemiologists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have pegged the number of new HIV infections each year at 40,000. They now believe it is between 55,000 and 60,000.

The higher estimate is the product of a new method of testing blood samples that can identify those who were infected within the previous five months. With a way to distinguish recent infections from long-standing ones, epidemiologists can then estimate how many new infections are appearing nationwide each month or year.

(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: aids; bloodtest; cdc; rate; riskybehavior

1 posted on 12/01/2007 7:23:38 AM PST by gusopol3
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To: gusopol3
The higher estimate is based on data from 19 states and large cities that have been extrapolated to the nation as a whole.

***************

I'll be convinced when we have real data, thanks.

2 posted on 12/01/2007 7:28:19 AM PST by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: trisham
The CDC has reported the figure of 40,000 new infections each year for more than a decade, citing it as evidence that the epidemic in this country is stable. But while widely quoted, that number has never been adequately explained or justified, in the eyes of many epidemiologists.

The old numbers were just as legitimate or just as bogus.

3 posted on 12/01/2007 7:33:04 AM PST by gusopol3
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To: trisham
Let me guess ... liberal states with cities that have large illegal populations.

The extrapolation?

Ever hear "Most Americans believe/say/are/will etc .. " ?

Extrapolation from polls done in chosen areas.

4 posted on 12/01/2007 7:34:00 AM PST by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true.)
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To: gusopol3

Agreed.


5 posted on 12/01/2007 7:35:18 AM PST by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: knarf
Extrapolation from polls done in chosen areas.

*************

That's my thought as well.

6 posted on 12/01/2007 7:36:02 AM PST by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: gusopol3

Presidental election year;thus, homelessmess and AIDS back on the radar night after night after night.


7 posted on 12/01/2007 7:37:58 AM PST by BlabItGrabIt (Anyone opposing rate cuts is in Hillery's or Rudy's camp)
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To: gusopol3

Hope the following, from the National Minority AIDS Council, are extrapolated statistics, too, but am afraid their numbers might be close to the truth...

Blacks in America are 13 percent of the U.S. population, but they represent more than 50 percent of all new HIV/AIDS diagnoses.

In the United States, more than 1 million people have HIV and more than 500,000 people have died from AIDS-related illnesses.

More than 500,000 blacks in America have HIV, and more than 200,000 have died from AIDS-related illnesses. In other words, about half of HIV infections and about half of AIDS deaths are among blacks in America.


8 posted on 12/01/2007 7:39:43 AM PST by flowerplough (America is "the most benign hegemon in history." Mark Steyn)
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To: gusopol3

trent’s fault! (I couldn’t help myself)


9 posted on 12/01/2007 7:42:33 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (Support America, Kill terrorists, Destroy dims and vote Fred!)
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To: flowerplough

... and those blacks come from where ... ?


10 posted on 12/01/2007 7:45:47 AM PST by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true.)
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To: flowerplough

needle exchange programs are the answer (sarc)


11 posted on 12/01/2007 7:48:29 AM PST by gusopol3
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To: gusopol3

Also, there’s this from the US Centers for Disease Control at
http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/topics/msm/index.htm
“MSM made up more than two thirds (68%) of all men living with HIV in 2005, even though only about 5% to 7% of men in the United States reported having sex with other men.
“In a 2005 study of 5 large US cities, 46% of African American MSM were HIV-postitive.”


12 posted on 12/01/2007 7:53:19 AM PST by beejaa
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To: gusopol3

This figure is probably just as accurate as the UN AIDS estimates for Africa.


13 posted on 12/01/2007 7:54:28 AM PST by 43north (I hope we are around long enough to become a layer in the rocks of the future.)
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To: gusopol3

...and so the shakedown for Hillary’s billions start. Yes, she will buy the gay vote - 50 billion for “aids activists” (read dems) to tell each other about safe sex ( ummmmm, use a condom - for those who want to save a few billion).


14 posted on 12/01/2007 8:59:29 AM PST by GOPJ ("Imagine the Outrage if FOX had Fixed a “debate” like this??" Freeper bray -- "CNN Sucks" - GOPJ)
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To: flowerplough
C-SPAN this morning had on a black man who is connected with some AIDS foundation, talking about AIDS figures. They showed a chart which had a higher percentage of new AIDS cases being attributed to heterosexual contact than to men having sex with men (something like 38% vs. 25%)...but there was another 23% where the cause of transmission was undetermined.

I don't know if those were supposed to be national figures or just for Washington, DC.

In any case the MSM numbers are likely to be low, since many HIV-positive men may be unwilling to admit that they engaged in homosexual activity.

15 posted on 12/01/2007 9:51:22 AM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: trisham
I'll be convinced when we have real data, thanks.

Only the United States government has the time, money and hubris required to calculate exactly what it does not know, to three decimal places.

Actually, it doesn't have the money, but it can print more and make everybody believe it is actually worth something.

16 posted on 12/01/2007 9:54:25 AM PST by Bernard ("Rare, Safe and Legal" - what an ideal Immigration Policy should look like.)
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To: gusopol3

As a buddy of mine pointed out to me today, liberals would be apoplectic if I was as careless with my guns as homosexuals are with their “guns”. I guess the only solution to the problem is to elect Hillary.


17 posted on 12/01/2007 10:04:53 AM PST by Hardastarboard (DemocraticUnderground.com is an internet hate site.)
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To: trisham

All concern about AIDS, its statistics, treatment or non-treatment means nothing to me. I happen to belong to that class of people for whom AIDS is a zero threat and for whom sex is a thoroughly satisfying pleasure. The heterosexually monogamous ought to be able to deduct from their taxes any portion that goes toward any AIDS treatment or research. It has nothing to do with us. It is a disease that one gets by engaging in promiscuous sex. I have no problem with people practicing any kind of sex they choose, only let them pay their own consequences and don’t berate us with the problems of teen pregnancy, and rampant STDs. We don’t contribute to any of these problems and will never have them ourselves, and one doesn’t have to be a genius to figure out the solution.

I’m sorry if you have AIDs or any other STD or other problems that result from indescriminate sex. It’s not my fault, and it IS yours. You do have my sympathy, not that you have any right to it, and you have no right to my time or my money because you acted stupidly.

Hank


18 posted on 12/01/2007 10:41:30 AM PST by Hank Kerchief
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To: knarf

The blacks who are reportedly bearing about half of HIV infections and about half of AIDS deaths America generally “come from” large American cities, hayna?

Why ask?


19 posted on 12/01/2007 11:35:52 AM PST by flowerplough (America is "the most benign hegemon in history." Mark Steyn)
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