Republican Favorable Ratings Rising [Byron York]
A new Gallup poll shows an across-the-board increase in the favorable ratings of major Republican presidential candidates – with the exception of Rudy Giuliani, who until recently had the highest favorable ratings of any Republican. According to the new rankings, John McCain now has the highest favorable rating of any candidate, with Giuliani second.
The poll shows Mike Huckabee's favorable rating jumped 15 points in the last three weeks, from 18 percent to 33 percent. (Huckabee's unfavorable rating ticked downward, from 18 percent to 16 percent.) Fred Thompson's favorable rating went up ten points, from 29 percent to 39 percent. (His unfavorable rating also went down, from 28 percent to 26 percent.) Mitt Romney's favorable rating went up eight points, from 28 percent to 36 percent, while his unfavorable rating went down a point, from 31 percent to 30 percent. And McCain's favorable rating also went up eight points from 47 percent to 55 percent, while his unfavorable fell from 34 percent to 30 percent. As for Giuliani, his favorable rating fell from 55 percent to 52 percent, with his unfavorable rating jumping from 32 percent to 37 percent.
During the same period, there was little change among Democrats, who already had higher favorable ratings than several Republicans. Hillary Clinton's favorable rating went down five points, from 52 percent to 47 percent, while her unfavorable rating went up from 45 percent to 50 percent. Barack Obama's favorable rating stayed the same, at 53 percent, while his unfavorable rating ticked upward from 30 percent to 33 percent. John Edwards' favorable rating also stayed the same, at 50 percent, while his unfavorable rating went from 31 percent to 35 percent.
Rudy (via Rasmussen):
11/30: 27
12/01: 24
12/02: 22
12/03: 20
12/04: 18
I’d say the patient is shocky. Hang another unit of whole blood and bring the adrenalin.
The measure of upward mobility potential for a candidate is the RATIO of his favorable to unfavorable ratings.
From the Gallup Poll cited above, in the order of each candidate’s potential for upward mobility as more Americans are exposed to him:
Huckabee.....33-16....2.1 ratio positive-to-negative
McCain........55-30....1.8
Thompson.....39-26....1.5
Giuliani.........52-37....1.4
Romney........36-30....1.2
By this measure, Huckabee has the highest potential to rise higher in the polls as his name I.D. and public exposure increase, while Romney has the lowest such potential.
In practical terms, when people hear and see Huckabee’s comments and views and demeanor, by a 2-to-1 margin, they like him. And that 2-to-1 ratio can be expected to be the reaction of voters who are not yet familiar with him. This is especially true given that Huckabee has the largest percentage of the electorate who still have never heard of or been exposed to him. In other words, as more voters are exposed to him, he has the greatest potential to climb even higher, followed by McCain.
The others, especially Romney and Rudy, have the opposite problem. Their high name I.D. based on celebrity and millions of dollars in T.V. ads means the electorate knows them and now doesn’t like them. That too can reasonably be expected to be the reaction of the smaller number of voters who haven’t been exposed to them. And thus, lower upward mobility potential.