Posted on 12/08/2007 4:41:18 PM PST by shrinkermd
[This is a Barron's Interview (10 Dec) with Rudolph-Riad Younes, Julius Baer International Equity Fund]
What is the problem? (By Ward)
"(Baer)...At the Fed we need more courage and less politics, and we need to reverse many of the changes that were made in the early 1980s to the inflation index, beginning with the decision to remove house prices from it and replace them with equivalent rents.
If there is one panacea, it is fixing the inflation index.
Under this revision, inflation rates consistently have been below those of the past. For example, under the old method, inflation in the past 10 years would have ranged between 8% and 10%. Under the new method it has ranged between 2% and 4%.
Had the inflation method been kept intact, inflation readings would have been 4% to 6% higher and, in response, interest rates would have been much higher. We would have grown more slowly during the boom, but avoided the bubbles and the ensuing bust.
The inflation index, to use an analogy, reminds me of a parent who invents Santa Claus for his children and then begins to believe the fantasy himself. The government invented Santa Claus in order to cheer up the children -- pensioners and laborers -- who were worried about their parents' ability to pay for their entitlements. The children were happy with the yearly gift added to their benefits; the parents were satisfied the children were buying the fairy tale, and spending was reined in.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.barrons.com ...
Take them out when they're going up,and put them back in when they're going down.
In the sense that a lot of govt spending is tied to the rate of inflation this is a good thing but as for families buying bread, milk and gas not to mention shelter, there’s no way to disguise the real rate.
The figure we normally hear of is the so-called core inflation, which is sans energy and food costs. From your article we can add “less housing costs.”
Thanks for the post.
/s
How do you fool the bond market? It dwarfs the stock market, btw.
Me too.Nothing could change my position on how truthful the government has been.
When food prices are jumping 50% at a time, it’s pretty hard to think there’s no inflation.
They just adjust that to the sales of fishing poles and assume the people are eating for free.
It is almost a perfect mini example of what happens in larger economic picture
Bear in mind, a candy bar may go up .5 cents (5% increase) in price, but the operator can't raise his vending machine price by .5 cent.
So they eat the increase until they have to raise the price they charge 5 cents or go broke, which causes people to stop buying as many candy bars.
Also because of raising prices across the board, people are not spending money like before.
Maybe you buy 4 sodas every day, now you buy 2 and drink water instead to save S10.00 a week
Between the soaring price of gas, manufacturers price increases, inflation is real and under reported.
The china imports no longer will drive inflation down or cover other raising prices because of the weak dollar.
Manufacturers price increases in my business segment slated for the first of are the largest and most I have ever seen, inflation is going to be a major problem next year no matter how it is reported
Simply use the oil from the idea to increase energy production and raise the dollar. Then happy domestic administration of foreign production will be on the rise again.;-)
There is your proof that the old method was wrong.
Sad but true.
Fair is fair however, what would have things looked like under previous administrations with and without Housing’s disposition?
Now where are those Free Trade guys?
Zimbabwe?
Good point, but who is buying them?
You rang?
We're still alive and kickin'.
Back in the 70s (I believe), the Brazilian government based its inflation rate on the price of black beans in one of its largest states. They then inflated merrily, until the price of beans started to rise. So, they trucked in a surplus of beans to dampen the inflation rate. (They were caught red-handed by the press.)
Something like out government importing illegals (by looking the other way) to drive down wages, so the Social Security increases, based in part on wage inflation, would end up in the 2% range.
Changing the index decreased the official statement of price inflation. It really depends on what prices one measures. Monetary inflation, which is typically at the root of price inflation, is hidden because the total money supply, M3, is no longer being reported.
Just my humble opinion.
So use M2.
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