Posted on 12/12/2007 11:31:53 PM PST by Kevmo
Here are the new Intrade results after the debate, as posted on the official discussion thread.
For the first time there has been a measurable change for DUNCAN HUNTER, doubling in price and showing a major jump embedded in Iowa.Field with a 3.3 point jump.
Duncan Hunter Won the debate. Huckabee Lost.
And, since this is going to be controversial, I will point out that I’ve been logging onto several prior debate threads where I analyzed the changes in Intrade results from the debates -- and usually the analysis showed was Huckabee who won. This time it's Hunter.
Naturally, those with an axe to grind will go out of their way to belittle this analysis. Out of all the candidates, Hunter seems to have his own version of a peanut gallery. Notably, when I had pointed out in earlier debates that Huckabee had won, no one could fault the analysis -- they merely felt that Intrade was not a reliable source of information. The reason why I proceed from Intrade is that it is an aggregated form of information, its only bias is from whether or not someone can make money from the contracts, and predictive markets have proven to be more reliable than poll results. As an example, refer to this article on Free Republic:
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
2008 Republican Presidential Nominee Old Price … New Price… Change
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 41.1 41.1 No chg 2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 20.2 21.4 +1.2 2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 17.8 18.0 +0.2 2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 9.2 9.2 No chg 2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 5.0 6.0 +1.0 2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.1 5.0 -0.1 2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER 0.1 0.2 +0.1
Ron Paul's contracts saw a 20% rise, Thompson's saw a 2% fall, Huckabee's saw a 1% rise, Romney's saw a 6% rise and Hunter's saw a 100% rise in price.
Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus
Old Price … New Price … Price Change REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE Mike Huckabee to Win 72.5 70.8 -1.7 REP.IOWA.ROMNEY Mitt Romney to Win 25.1 25.1 No chg REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) Fred Thompson to Win 1.5 1.5 No chg REP.IOWA.GIULIANI Rudy Giuliani to Win 0.4 2.5 +2.1 REP.IOWA.MCCAIN John McCain to Win 0.5 1.7 +1.2 REP.IOWA.FIELD Field (any other individual) to Win 1.1 4.4 +3.3
The biggest changes were Giuliani and the Field. Hunter, Tancredo and Ron Paul are all embedded in the field. Interpolating from the fact that Tancredo's NOM contract saw no change and no volume, the two biggest elements would be Ron Paul's and Hunter's contracts. It's a real safe bet at this stage -- later on an Intrader would need to decide if he wanted to stick with Hunter or Paul when the contracts split out from the field. Further interpolating From Ron Paul's 20% rise and Hunter's 100% rise, that would leave about a half point rise due to Ron Paul's performance and maybe 2 & a half point rise for Hunter for Iowa.Win.
Rudy also seems to have done well in this debate for the Iowa results. Thompson and Huckabee lost ground.
The smart money really IS on Duncan Hunter.
.
.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
How anyone could have thought Thompson LOST ground during that debate is beyond me.
Hunter did fine but I really don’t think he did anything to increase his support beyond where it is.
Fred-hater alert!
You've nailed it.
I'll say again, "Iowa.Field" includes Hunter, Tancredo, LRon, and any other eligible candidate imaginable.
One cannot say who is responsible for the 3.3 point jump with any certainty without more information.
Pinging the list for you...
“So he knows what about being in in the middle of a war?”
Running the global foreign interests of the most powerful economic and military that has ever existed, isn’t much much enhanced by knowing how you personally felt as a young man in a dangerous position.
I don’t think that the combat experience of Jessica Lynch helps in ANYWAY to make her more able to manage the United States interests on the International level, than say Ronald Reagan, or Richard Nixon, or George W. Bush.
I don’t know anything about that trading stuff, but it’s certainly good news.
In other words, the market was completely wrong then, but they're right now?
Using the failure of Intrade to predict the Huckabee "bump" doesn't help your sell anyone else on your Intrade obsession, complete with all of the assumptions you try to pass off as facts (such as your laughable "extrapolation" of the Paul and Hunter numbers).
Let's face it, the Intrade market may be fairly reliable at addressing a nominally 50/50 proposition, such as a two-person race. But the current GOP is so muddled that there's no bass other than emotion for the current trading values.
***That leader is Duncan Hunter. Accept no substitutes. :)***
Check my new tag line.
I don’t know if I like it yet.
Again...for that last time, explain to me how any GOP candidate not named McCain or Hunter is going to honestly look into the eyes of military men and women and their families who are dealing with their loved ones being in danger, and say, “I know how you feel. I truly understand your concerns, fears and sacrafice.”
None of the others can. They don’t have the leg to stand on. And guess what, that fact is going to be pointed out by every group working to get a Democrat in the White House, just like what’s been done to President Bush. Why not put someone on the ticket who can shoot down such rhetoric form the other side?
Hunter’s son is home now.
I’m there...
Came home around Thanksgiving, right?
Hunter is the winner in this Tortoise and Hare race. He is the Rock of Gibraltar when it comes to his positions, his character, his qualifications.
Clean hands, a spotless reputation, and a sterling character. I wish all the bozo conservatives would stop their nonsense and pay attention. We do have the best candidate, a man who can beat whomever the Dems nominate.
Duncan Hunter is the real deal.
I believe the very day.
“explain to me how any GOP candidate not named McCain or Hunter is going to honestly look into the eyes of military men and women and their families who are dealing with their loved ones being in danger, and say, “I know how you feel. I truly understand your concerns, fears and sacrafice.””
I served under Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, I don’t remember that being what American foreign policy revolved around.
We are looking for a President of the United States, not a platoon Sargent.
DUNCAN HUNTER - you may not know his name...until you want to thank him!
Hahaha. McRomney is the fast food version, highly processed with no nutritional value but he sells well in China. Hunter is the $5.00 steak-burger your friend at the local shop makes, just how you like it, without any hidden metals. :)
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