IRAQ: Can a lull be turned into a real peace?

The Economist ^ | Dec 13th 2007 | Staff

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

The surge of American troops has dramatically reduced violence. But Iraq's politicians may still squander an obvious chance for reconciliation

AFTER more than three years as an interpreter for American troops in the city of Falluja, Dave (not his real name) recently had his hair cut for the first time by a local barber. Since then, several American marines based inside the city of some 300,000 people have also had their crew-cut domes locally shaved to a gleam. Six months ago they would have had their throats slit—and so, almost certainly, would the barber.

But times have changed dramatically. Once widely considered the most dangerous and xenophobic city in Iraq and one of the country's most resilient havens of al-Qaeda, Falluja is now enjoying a new, if tentative, peace. So, no less strikingly, is the whole of Anbar province, in which Falluja lies, and most of the Euphrates river valley. The Americans say that if you go north and north-west through Hit and Haditha and up to the border with Syria near the town of Qaim, it is clear that al-Qaeda has been chased out—with the co-operation of the local Sunnis and the tribal leaders. In those areas, which embrace the vast majority of Iraq's Sunni Arabs outside Baghdad, attacks against the American-led coalition forces have dropped more than tenfold compared with a year ago.

The peace in Falluja is fragile, as it is in the Sunni parts elsewhere. There is no knowing what would happen if the Americans left in a hurry. It is unclear whether al-Qaeda in Iraq (known in Western military circles as AQI) has been truly defeated or is biding its time.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Nor is it certain that the local Sunni tribal leaders who have struck security deals with the Americans across Anbar province would, if the Americans left, make war or peace with the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad.

But however temporary it may prove to be, it is an extraordinary change.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

From a UK paper....

[Texas Eagle]

IRAQ: Can a lull be turned into a real peace?

Suggestions for future stories for The Economist to cover:

OAKLAND: Can a lull be turned into a real peace?

PHILADELPHIA: Can a lull be turned into a real peace?

NEW ORLEANS: Can a lull be turned into a real peace?

DETROIT: Can a lull be turned into a real peace?

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

H/T to the Strata Sphere blog for the above article:

Progress In Iraq Creates Sunni Heros To Replace Bin Laden As The Arab-Muslim Icon

********************EXCERPT*********************

I am not going to write extensively on these stories on Iraq, but they are “must reads” to see how the debate on Iraq is shifting with the progress inside Iraq.

First up is an Economist article that covers all the progress and notes things could still go bad, but could also (more likely) go well in Iraq.

*********************see above article****************

The authors can’t let go of their pessimism, even in light of all the progress they report. As you read it the grudging nature of the reporting is evident. But the facts and data presented in this article are really good and show how broad and deep the progress has been in Iraq.

This story from RCP highlights the new leaders in Iraq - the Sunnis who through off al-Qaeda’s yoke and whip.

****************************

Posted by AJStrata on Friday, December 14th, 2007 at 9:01 am.

Do read the rest at the Blog as he comments on several articles and their spin...............

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Yes,....see link at #4.

[Shadow44]

There isn’t even a lull in Philly. I tell you, the city’s gone to hell in a handbasket.

[Texas Eagle]

Since then, several American marines based inside the city of some 300,000 people have also had their crew-cut domes locally shaved to a gleam.

U.S. military personnel are safer in Falluja than they are in Seattle.

[bray]

US Military is more liked in Iraq than they are in San Fagsisco.

Pray for W and Our Amazing Troops

[jveritas]

Peace in Iraq is now a fact however it is not officially announced yet. Al Qaeda in Iraq is utterly defeated and now they are moving their terrorists to other fronts where they do not have to face the might of the US military.

[Jet Jaguar]

Well put.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Ernest.

Nor is it certain that the local Sunni tribal leaders who have struck security deals with the Americans across Anbar province would, if the Americans left, make war or peace with the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad. But however temporary it may prove to be, it is an extraordinary change.

One of several reasons the Sunni started to work against al-Qaeda was contemplation of a precipitous US withdrawal.

[LexBaird]

There isn’t even a lull in Philly. I tell you, the city’s gone to hell in a handbasket.

It's because of those damned homophobic boy scouts. Philly was a peaceful place when Brotherly Love was tolerated.

[cripplecreek]

I think we also try to look at peace on our terms and from our perspective. The simple fact is that muslim lands are violent places with or without us. I guess I wish liberals would learn to accept that there is plenty of violence in that part of the world and expecting peace like we have in America is an unrealistic expectation.

[Jet Jaguar]

Back to Pakistan and Afghanistan and northern Africa.

[elhombrelibre]

Lulling in Falluja ping.

[Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit]

The economist is not exactly what you would call a “UK paper”. It is one of the oldest most respected weeklies in world and is generally considered one of the best English language publications around. Over 50% of their readership is in the US.

[Marine_Uncle]

From the RCP article: "The Iraqi government has said it won't tolerate any sahwa groups in the south of the country, and recently arrested a Najaf politician for suggesting a preliminary meeting.
But Ali Hatem - and other sheikhs with whom I spoke - are looking at an awakening that goes beyond groups of fighters. They talk of forming a new political party - nonsectarian - built on a tribal base that includes Sunnis, Shiites and others. "The political people in authority in Iraq have failed," he says. "We cannot wait."

This is the most important thing I see. Most of the other stuff has already been spoken about. But here we see a southern province allowing both Shiite and Sunni to work together in what could be a very extensive way.
As more Shiite and Sunni band together and force a real hand of votes on given issues, the Maliki government will have little choice but to act in accordance with the will of the people. I see this a sign of current reconciliation expanding at a exponential growth. That is, what I read concerning the common shared values of both major Islamic sects in the southern regions.
And the al Anbar awakening started full swing because of fears the US might just pull out and the tribes realized either they get off their asses and kick AQI out of their province or face the consequences of Shara law.

Meanwhile many areas in the northern two provinces continue to move ahead on a economic boom. Iraq is on the mend.

[hinckley buzzard]

The simple fact is that muslim lands are violent places with or without us.

The world is a violent place with or without us, but a lot more so without us. Around the end of the Cold War a foreign policy analyst(sorry the name escapes me) noted that we should not expect tranquility but rather "a violent peace." Liberal moonbeams yelped in protest at such a concept. But it is and as been and always will be the rule rather than the exception.

I agree with you, we could leave Iraq, with a reasonably stable government engaged in a low level running fight with bands of jihadis and other rabble, and be justified in calling it a complete success. Even though occasional killings will most likely continue indefinitely.

[tarheelswamprat]

The peace in Falluja is fragile, as it is in the Sunni parts elsewhere.

So is the peace in London, just as it is in the parts elsewhere in Britain...

[Dilbert56]

I recently read there are a total of 300 Marines in Fallujah. Their role may be critical but the majority of the “peace” must be in place already.