With 4 as the margin of error, you could say 5 guys are at 16-17, within the MOE. Basically, Rudy & Huck are probably a few percentage points above that, Mitt just about there, and Fred & McCain slightly behind...but this is really a very tight 5-way race right now.
What becomes critical is what everyone’s second choice is in the race. Suppose, for example, McCain was everyone’s second choice. Any perceived faltering in the front 4 would result in folks starting to go with their second choice and vault McCain to the front.
I despise McCain - I think he is unstable - but that is an example of how tight this race is.
I think McCain will be finished if he doesn’t do well in NH, and the tightening of the race there between Hillary & Obama limits his crossline potential.
Also, I think Huck will drop a few points as folks begin to comprehend his many weaknesses. He’ll do well in Iowa - as did Robertson - then cave elsewhere.
The race will be won by whoever can capture a few percentage points off of these two, IMHO.
Do not discount the 17% undecided that are not falling for the Rooty Romney Huck three ring circus. It they were going to go that route they would have by now. They will not forget McCain's amnesty push either.
I still think Willard is going to win Iowa, despite the polling, owing to the slavish devotion of his followers and the eleventy jillion dollars he’s spent on the ground.