Posted on 12/16/2007 5:37:07 PM PST by Flavius
Peak oil, peak metals, and this year peak food. Every bookshop has a corner warning that mankind will soon outrun the basic resources of the globe.
A combine harvester works its way through a field of barley in the chalk downlands south of Salisbury, England. Digging out the truth behind mining mergers Come a cropper: grain stocks are at their lowest in 60 years and wheat prices have risen by 145 per cent since April
It was ever thus. Variants of the theme emerge at the top of each commodity super-cycle, only to be deferred for another 20 years or so as new supply comes on-stream and technology outwits the pessimists. Shortage can turn to glut very fast once inflation forces central banks to hit the brakes.
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
Oh yes more from the popular hyper-intelligencia school of thought, the Neomalthusian school.
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) developed the well-known theory that a country’s food production cannot keep up with its population growth over the long run. Starvation, war and early death would regulate the balance between food availability and population numbers. That means that the bulk of the population would live a minimalist existence.
But Malthus, who lived at the end of the 1700s, couldn’t predict later technological breakthroughs, such as the Green Revolution, which have altered his bleak global caloric intake equation.
If oil were in such abundance, we wouldn’t have seen that ridiculous NIE and anti-defense policy now so fixed. There’s no doubt that the economic powers-that-be will put hiring on hold and go south for their vacations during January and February, though.
May oil go over $100 and the dollar fall during their absences.
Yes. Television fantasies and propaganda are the really important considerations. Without entertainment and lots of extra calories, there is only despair.
People who worry about “peak” anything not only don’t have a clue how the free market works, they don’t want to allow it to work either.
With “peak oil”, given we are either at or beyond break-even for several technologies that will produce liquid fuels, what counts is only the price of the final product at the pump. That price says it all: it signals if supply is plentiful or if it may be short. That is all we need to know.
The difference between today’s availability of motor vehicle fuels and back in the early 1970’s is simple: today, you can have all the fuel you care to buy. In the 1970’s, government was controlling the price. There were times when there was no fuel to be had, at any price. And in reality people were sent to jail for selling fuel for a higher price than government allowed. Of course there were lines to fill up cars. Of course gasoline stations sometimes limited purchases to only 5 gallons. Of course people didn’t let their tank get less than 1/3 empty. Of course it was a silly mess back then, back when government was running part of the petroleum fuels market.
If you mean Goldman Sachs hedge funds are artificially inflating oil futures and oil prices with them, then yes, markets are rigged and do not reflect reality.
In today’s markets, perspective and reality diverge because of thousands of Quants figuring bounds for writing derivatives that will expire worthless. That means driving market prices up or down as necessary to preserve their derivative premiums. So the market often makes no sense other than participating in a cycle of following news and news following markets.
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