Posted on 12/18/2007 8:54:13 AM PST by Ol' Sparky
Rudolph Giuliani's decision to largely abandon the early voting state of New Hampshire and concentrate his efforts on the Florida primary three weeks later reflects an uncomfortable truth for the former New York mayor: The more he campaigned in the Granite State and the more he spent on advertising there, the more his poll numbers dropped.
(Excerpt) Read more at nysun.com ...
Flatlandah.
I think of all the candidates right now, the one that is the most excited to start each day has to be Huckabee.
Every day pretty well brings bad news for someone...except Huck. (I don’t like him, I’m just commenting on the horse race here). I didn’t think that I would see the day that Giuliani would have to fight him off in Florida. I’ll bet the Giuliani boys are getting a bit nervous right about now.
I realize that NH is dominated by the Boston media market, but I am surprised that it is not possible to buy targeted advertising on local cable providers in NH without also spending money advertising to Boston.
Of course, I am sure the rates on advertising are bid up in NH so much in the next few weeks that the tail is probably wagging the dog by this point.
stick a fork in ‘im.
A few weeks before Iowa in 2004, it was Howard Dean who was riding high. John F'n Kerry was bouncing along the bottom at 5%.
The system is designed to crush the early front-runner. If he has any flaws at all, he will not last.
And Mike Huckabee has flaws-a-plenty.
So what—I’m a flatlander and I still can’t stand him. What scares me is all the talk is focusing on a flatlander/Masshole like Romney.
McCain too. He's making his comeback at just the right time.
Thompson and Hunter are the only 2 conservatives....the rest are democrats in drag (and when I say drag I especially mean Giuliani).......
While true, the problem with that analysis is that Huck has already displaced a former frontrunner. Romney, like Dean, was looking good there for like 10 months. Huck knocked him out.
So I’m not sure who is going to emerge to knock out the new frontrunner. I know a lot of FR like to think that Fred is going to make a strong move there and anything is possible (theoretically) in politics. But Fred is trending down, from as high as 15 to south of 10 now, even slightly below Giuliani according the the latest realclearpolitics.com poll averages. The point being: someone is going to have to make a serious, serious comeback to knock out Huck. Rapid ascents are rare in politics, but comebacks are almost non-existent.
Unless Fred makes a move, Huckabee's main competitors are flawed as well.
If Romney can't dominate a state that he has outspent his main competitor in 10-1, he is loser. For good reason, he is flip-flopper no one finds credible.
Exactly. The only chance of a Kerry-like defeat of Huckabee is if Fred Thompson somehow makes a move in Iowa. That is going to be tough since Huckabee seems to have the Christian vote locked up.
Dean was not the first front-runner in 2004, either. I forget who was, but I know that Dean came on as an insurgent alternative to the early FRB (to use a hash term). Dean rose quickly and fell even quicker.
Fred's numbers were quite high before he announced. After he announced, his numbers started slipping. Therefore, if he expects to win, he needs to drop out of the race ;-)
I read someplace yesterday that he was doing just that. Some influential mayor endorsed him so he is buying in that market which is not the Boston mdeia market. He is hoping to get a large share of that market.
Looks like the field will soon be Romney, Huckabee and Thompson.
Kerry was the first front runner.
Remember that Iowa is not a primary state. It doesn't matter what the polls say. It's who can get their supporters to the caucuses at the time and place appointed.
Also keep in mind that no republican delegates are actually elected at the caucuses. We take a straw poll and we elect delegates to the county conventions, which then elect delegates to the state convention, which then elects delegates to the national convention. We won't know who really wins Iowa on the republican side for a number of weeks, yet.
Since the caucuses are about orgnaization, I wouldn't rule Romney out just yet (even though I won't be voting for him).
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