Posted on 12/21/2007 5:44:36 PM PST by devere
DAVENPORT, Iowa — Fred Thompson’s plan is simple: Get on a bus and haul around to some 50 Iowa towns and cities between now and Jan. 3.
It’s the only option he has.
Thompson has little money left in bank and has had to slash his television presence here to a level well below that of Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. His cash crunch is so severe that he’s even had to freeze his direct mail plan.
So now, for the next two weeks before the caucuses, he'll be largely living off the land.
Thompson fell in the polls as Mike Huckabee rose — in seeming direct correlation to one another. One network pulled their embedded reporter from the Thompson beat and another network divided their embed between the two candidates.
But a different Fred Thompson showed up at the GOP debate last week outside Des Moines. The funny, commanding performance turned some heads, perhaps not the least of which that of conservative Iowa congressman Steve King, who threw his support to Thompson in a press conference Monday.
King’s support, and Thompson’s debate showing, also caught the eye of veteran Des Moines Register columnist David Yepsen, who made the case this week that Thompson should not be counted out.
The confluence of events has combined to give Thompson aides at least the appearance of optimism.
“The important thing for Thompson was to get into the mix in this final fortnight,” said senior adviser Rich Galen. “He needed to be part of the conversation. And that has happened.”
So now they’re trying to capitalize.
Thompson’s bus tour is aimed less at retail, one-on-one politicking than at earning media attention to compensate for his lack of ads and direct mail.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
I am into emerging markets...
If Fred can’t earn or raise sufficient money, why is that Romney’s problem?
Lookng at the figures, Fred is doing ok. He has just a little over 7 million on hand, just 2 million less than Mitt, but against only a little under 700K in debts.
Mitt is showing a tick over 9 million on hand but against 17 million in debt...
So I take that back, your are right JC, Fred’s money is not Mitt’s problem...
But I bet he wish it was...
Lookng at the figures, Fred is doing ok. He has just a little over 7 million on hand, just 2 million less than Mitt, but against only a little under 700K in debts.
Mitt is showing a tick over 9 million on hand but against 17 million in debt...
So I take that back, your are right JC, Fred’s money is not Mitt’s problem...
But I bet he wish it was...
Here’s the difference, though:
Mitt Romney has hundreds of millions of dollars in assets that he can access to finance his campaign. He can afford to go into debt. Fred cannot.
I am curious then why he is riding 17 mil in debt...
Of course, it is to himself....
And this willingness to spent what ever it takes is good for our political wellbeing, right?
A business professional willing to hemorrhage money for a campaign is a good steward of his own money, so should also be one of ours as tax payers...
I see the light now, thank you...
That table is 2 months old. Thompson had a fund raising windfall immediately post announcement. His staff’s quotes and the behavior of the campaign since show profoundly that the windfall rate of donations did not maintain.
Here is the critical data everyone needs to get their brains wrapped around. THIS is what it costs to run a campaign.
http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/case/3pt/berkovitz.html
and this data is quite a number of years old. But even so if you sit down and project a 30 second spot every 30 minutes (heavy would be every 15 minutes) on multiple target TV audiences the costs soar. Then tack on radio on multiple stations and you’re burning easily $400K/week in just a medium market.
You can then add senior staff salaries to these numbers. They vary by credentials, but pretty much all are well north of six figures annually at that level of play. Then there are the pollsters. Travel expense. Hotel conference room reservations.
Read that media buy table and . . . understand.
November Charlie, November Bravo Charlie.
November Bravo, November Bravo Charlie.
I get AT LEAST two solicitations from Fred’s campaign via email every day...
I prefer Duncan Hunter...but he won’t even be on the primary ballot in my state...
I know the majority of us on Free Republic are all idiots Owen, and probably don’t appreciate your brilliant analysis like we should, but I think a lot of us will wait and see about getting a Conservative in office before we give up and move on to a more middle of the road stance....
Let me add once more point here, money-wise. I have seen estimates as high as $500 million required to be raised by a candidate who must go all the way to November. I think that is high. My estimates are lower by about 15%.
So 425 million dollars is to be spent to have any chance of competing to win. The DNC can toss some of that into Hillary’s pile in September. The GOP can’t do that for the GOP nominee.
A reasonable estimate of Romney’s fund raising/spending to date would be about $85 million. That means 340 million to go, just to get into the arena and compete.
New Hampshire early voting started some time ago so we cannot say “not a vote has been cast” yet, but regardless we don’t know what is going to happen other than one particular truth. That is:
Fred Thompson is not going to be President of the United States driving a bus across America while Hillary and her staff of experts are in a leased and repainted B757 hitting every target locale in the nation.
Your “we need to nominate Slick Willard because he can pay for his own campaign” analysis is absurd.
“I know the majority of us on Free Republic are all idiots Owen, . . .”
I suspect many folks here might object to that characterization. But you’re certainly free to speak for yourself in that regard.
politico has been unreachable for over an hour for me, you?
I donated last night! I hope others will give something. I wish we didn’t have to fight the “He’s lazy; there’s no hope”
MSM soundbite. Does anyone remember “He needs Gravitas?” Are we really going to fall for the MSM bite of the day?
That would make a GREAT tagline!
Sent a contribution to Fred last week, and I am prepared to do so again shortly...I would encourage every conservative to do the same.
Not sure I necessarily agree with the ‘need’ to make 500m to run, but I do know this. The money for the Republicans has been waiting on the sidelines for something to happen. Like us they see polls that are very unsteady, moving quickly and a lack of a clear leader. When someone starts to move in the polls, probably sometime in or after Iowa, that’s when the money will start to come into the race
I think that is why Fred has gone all out in Iowa. Regardless of money, I think his approach of going directly to the local media is the right choice to do well in Iowa. That approach obviously won’t work for the rest of the country, but for Iowa you need a plan like his. Look at Romney’s money and ask yourself what it has gotten for him.
Anyway, if Fred does well in Iowa, I think he will get plenty of money to go to SC, and whoever wins the race will get enough money to get it done.
Forget about NH, nobody cares about that it has become meaningless to Republicans. Mich. could be a wildcard, but Iowa and SC will still decide the election, IMHO.
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