According to the IA polls I have seen, Romney supporters were the most committed (>90% sure) while Huckabee supporters were only about 30% sure. Given that Romney GOTV operation is superior he should be able to overcome Huckabee lead if he is within 3-4% in polls.
Anyway, if Huckabee wins Iowa, he is the clear front-runner and it is the end of Fred Thompson’s long shot candidacy. If Fred cannot make it in conservative Iowa, he sure cannot make it in NH (currently at 3%) or Michigan (4%).
Huckster won’t carry NH , but a Huckster win in Iowa will make it difficult for Romney get the momentum going that he will need.
Also watch for McPain to do well in NH , as it appears he is surging there . Romney should be very worried at this point .
You are competely discounting the South , where Thompson will be strong .
You are clueless.