[tlb]

Sounds reasonable overall, except I'd put the Hillary nomination probability considerably higher. I notice Thompson, Paul, and Kucinich don't score well. Also few seem to put much reliance on an Iowa win vis a vis the ultimate nomination.

[JohnnyZ]

GIGO

[devolve]

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As in 2006 Russmussen weights Republicans 4 points to low and the LA Times rates dems 17 points too high

Who was hyped in Iowa in 2006 for the dems and where did he end up?

The MSM loves a loser for Republicans

[Rudder]

I don’t hold faith in the long-range predictive value of this “market.” For example, should it be that Obama wins Iowa (like it predicts) Hillary will try harder for NH. And the harder she tries, the more she steps in it. She then loses NH, so she tries even harder, and so on... The dynamic aspects of this primary, not captured by this “market,” could well have Hillary running against herself and so-called conventional wisdom. Bottom line: I say she loses the primary.

[668 - Neighbor of the Beast]

Most likely in the general, a Clash of the Ken Dolls: Romney vs. Edwards.

[papasmurf]

Seems Rasmussen jumped the shark now, as well. Futures markets on elections have proven to be a fools bet.

I won’t be fooled so easily.

[Kevmo]

Cool. I love prediction markets.

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According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

In this poll Hunter is up 3% and even with Paul and Thompson.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3481ef60-8195-46a9-af04-b87b907bcfdd