Posted on 01/01/2008 1:17:22 AM PST by Maelstorm
DES MOINES, IOWA — With no clear front-runner in either party, this week's Iowa presidential caucuses are shaping up to be a genuine cliffhanger, with few willing to venture predictions.
"The old rule of thumb is that there is always a surprise," said Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University. "But this year the surprise could be that there's no surprise."
Iowans on Thursday render judgment on a presidential campaign that already feels long but is really just beginning. The uncertainty of the caucus results is intensifying the race here in the final days, with the candidates barely stopping to observe the New Year.
"Anyone who suggests we don't have an epic battle on our hands is living in Never-Never Land," Democrat John Edwards told supporters at a Des Moines campaign rally. "We, I say we, have a fight on our hands. I mean it."
Edwards, a trial lawyer and former senator from North Carolina, has battled in recent weeks to close the gap between himself and party headliners Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois.
A new poll by McClatchy/MSNBC found Edwards leading with 24 percent in Iowa, followed Clinton with 23 percent and Obama with 22 percent. Since the last McClatchy poll a month ago, Edwards gained three percentage points, while Clinton lost four and Obama lost three.
Their three-way battle has its counterpart in the Republican Party among former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, the ex-governor of Massachusetts, with former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee angling hard for a spot in the top three.
Or rather, angling as hard as the infamously slow-walking Thompson can muster.
"I'm not going to change myself, or my habits or how fast I walk" to win the nomination, Thompson told a gathering of supporters in Ames. "Maybe I am wrong, but we'll find out."
Among the volunteers helping out at the Thompson event was Melissa Dyson, a marketing director from Dallas who has been phoning voters, handing out stickers and helping out at Thompson's appearances.
"He's the man I want to represent our country," said Dyson.
The McClatchy/MSNBC poll found that Romney is leading in Iowa with 27 percent, followed by Huckabee at 23 percent. Battling for third are Thompson at 14 percent and Sen. John McCain of Arizona at 13 percent. In the past month, Huckabee lost eight percentage points, and Romney gained seven.
McCain's relatively strong showing was unexpected, since he's been largely absent from Iowa and focusing on New Hampshire. Also missing from the Republican race here have been Texan Ron Paul, the congressman from Lake Jackson, and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
Paul, who arrives in the state to campaign on Wednesday, has been present in television ads and through the ubiquity of his supporters, some of whom turn up outside other candidates' events holding Paul campaign signs.
"This campaign is attracting all kinds of people who have never participated in the Iowa caucuses before," said Paul supporter Bob Vanderplatz of St. Mary's, predicting a better-then-expected showing for Paul on Thursday.
Giuliani, by contrast, left the state for good last week after a brief flurry of events. The former New York mayor had been planning to skip the early state contests and focus instead on winning Florida and other big states to put together enough delegates to clinch the nomination.
In contrast to other candidates in both parties, who sometimes talk for over an hour each and often linger to take questions from voters, a Giuliani event last week at an Indianola bakery featured seven minutes of upbeat chat from the candidate and a few quick questions before he dashed off in an SUV.
The tight race has also brought forth a tenuous stream of negative campaigning among the candidates — measured, because these Midwestern voters are historically turned off by the rotgut politics that fuel races elsewhere.
"He's attacked everybody," Huckabee said of Romney. "His attacks on me have been desperate and, frankly, dishonest."
Before an audience of older-skewing voters in Indianola, Huckabee went on to criticize Romney for changing his positions on abortion and gay rights. Romney, meanwhile, criticized Huckabee for his record on taxes, immigration and criminal sentencing.
"Every day he's telling you I'm a bum," Huckabee said. Then, softening it with a joke, added, "My wife is here in Iowa, she'll tell you for free — I'm a bum."
Among Democrats, Clinton and Obama have been swapping critiques of each other's experience and fitness for office.
One unifying issue for all of the candidates in Iowa is turnout.
The caucuses are in the evening, when temperatures can register in the single digits. And there's something else worrying the candidates: Football.
"I'm told it's going to be about 75 or 80 degrees, a very nice day to go caucus. There's nothing on TV. Just the Orange Bowl," Romney told supporters in Newton.
Check out Julie Mason's photos and campaign blogging from Iowa at blogs.chron.com/beltwayconfidential
julie.mason@chron.com
"with former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee angling hard for a spot in the top three.
Or rather, angling as hard as the infamously slow-walking Thompson can muster.
"I'm not going to change myself, or my habits or how fast I walk" to win the nomination, Thompson told a gathering of supporters in Ames. "Maybe I am wrong, but we'll find out."
Among the volunteers helping out at the Thompson event was Melissa Dyson, a marketing director from Dallas who has been phoning voters, handing out stickers and helping out at Thompson's appearances.
"He's the man I want to represent our country," said Dyson.
He’s attacked everybody,” Huckabee said of Romney. “His attacks on me have been desperate and, frankly, dishonest.”
The problem is neither of them are really being dishonest about the other. They are just playing the game of resenting the truth. I just wish I’d hear them say. “He’s right. I did have that position then but now I have this position. I changed my mind so sue me.” Instead they word parse and play games. I think one Arkansas governor was more than enough when in comes to the Presidency and I don’t see a Massachusetts governor who supports a Nationalized Health Care plan that is indistinguishable from Hillary Clinton’s is the answer either.
Give me a real conservative or give me nothing.
Her negatives in Iowa are at least 50%. No one will report more than 45%.
Say Hillary, Osama, Edwards get their 30%, 28%, 26%. Anyone whose candidate does not get 15%, then votes again.
On the second vote, it seems, everyone will vote for someone other than Hillary. No one who didn't vote for her the first time will vote for her on the second ballot. Osama and Edwards get all the second votes.
The Toon comes in 3rd.
yitbos
Here’s a snapshot from Intrade yesterday. There is evidence that Hunter is gaining ground in Iowa.
For the Iowa caucus, Thompson is at the bottom of the pack, Romney has regained the lead from Huckabee. Ron Paul and Hunter are both embedded together, so there’s no way of knowing if he’s gaining ground, but on the basis of the president.field contract moving, I’d say he’s probably at ~0.3 and Ron Paul is at ~4.8, which puts Hunter ahead of Thompson.
Caucus
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win M 45.0 46.0 45.0 1690 +5.0
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win M 40.2 54.9 50.0 1960 0
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to Win M 0.1 1.4 0.1 642 -1.4
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN
John McCain to Win M 0.6 4.4 0.2 860 -2.8
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to Win M - 0.1 0.1 701 0
REP.IOWA.FIELD
Field (any other individual) to Win M 4.7 5.9 4.8 1384 +1.0
2008.PRES.FIELD
Field (any other candidate) to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.2 0.3 0.2 14910 +0.1
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According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
In this poll Hunter is up 3% and even with Paul and Thompson.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3481ef60-8195-46a9-af04-b87b907bcfdd
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