Posted on 01/01/2008 9:26:12 PM PST by Jeff Head
It does not have to be this way...and they still have a significant ways to go in terms of both technology and numbers. But the trends are in place to allow them to continue to close the gap in both areas. In the next ten to fifteen years, unless we make significnt adjustments, we could be at risk in the WESTPAC...maybe sooner.
Would not be surprised to see something happen in the 2009-2010 time frame, but it will depend on a lot of other factors too. They would most likely act if we were tied up signicantly elsewhere, and given a pretext, either real or manufactured...and also, very crritically, based on just who it is that is in control of the White House and Congress.
They are obviously planning on creating their own “sphere of influence” in the Pacific which means the U.S. ultimately backs off or confronts them.
“It does not have to be this way”
In order for the rapid/emergency-like scenarios portrayed, yes - it does. It requires that the Chinese already be such a juggernaut that even as a transitional economy they are close to match us militarily. China still has a tremendous period of high growth ahead, whether they ever actually pull ahead of the U.S. in terms of GDP or not. (They’ve got quite a long period of time before they catch Japan, but even at that they’d more than double their existing GDP.) So, if they _already_ have the capabilities to have leapfrogged to “close the gap” this way, then yes - it has to be this way, and publications like The Independent are exactly right when they say China _will_ eclipse America, and there is absolutely, positively, nothing America can do to stop it.
The following link discusses US vs. China through 2030. Interesting discussions afterwards.
http://futurist.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/05/why_the_us_will.html
China won’t rule the world, but they are big enough right now at this point in time to cause problems.
Thanks for the update. I’ve been following this pretty closely myself.
(grin) One doesn't have to be big in order to cause trouble. Ever try to drive with a bee in the car, or sleep with a mosquito in the room?
But seriously, I've always been sorta puzzled about this hand-wringing over China. Why, b/c China has a lot of people? Well, so does India. B/c China is big country? Well, so is India. B/c of China's stated rapid economic growth? A growth triumphed by China itself, based on MYOB numbers which the Chicom will not permit any outsiders (international, or non-cadre Chinese)to look at.
I'm not saying we shouldn't keep our powder dry, but let's not get too Henny-Penny ("...the sky is falling...the sky is falling...") about this.
The PRC is going after the ROC (to use the old, more descriptive acronyms) in the near to mid term at the most. They need a navy powerful enough for successful invasion of Taiwan while deterring US Navy intervention.
They also need many other elements, which they have or are getting (control of the Panama Canal, U.S. beachhead, offensive cyberspace capability, ASAT capability, Strategic Nuclear Weapons Threat, etc.) Much of this has been given to the ChiComs by Democrat traitors; one of whom was the President of the United States and a Communist Agent.
But you know all of this. So does the rest of the country. Most are too busy with their bread and circuses to care.
And all the while the noose tightens. Because the US is Red China’s main enemy. And Red China will happily first humiliate the US Navy to redeem China’s loss of face caused by the Great White Fleet’s ill-executed visit a century ago and continued by its defense of Taiwan today.
As far as the Red Chinese are concerned, payback time is coming soon. And their debt collectors will be visiting the US Navy on their way to Taiwan.
OUTSTANDING post! Thanks. Thanks to all contributors to this thread.
(Actually, it is already too late. The old Soviet maxim about the capitalists selling them the rope they are hanged with may, in fact, come true. Enjoy your electronic gizmos and toasters!)
The optimum period for China to press their goals in Taiwan will be when the rats control the presidency and congress. When the time comes, I predict we’ll fold.
Those SSNs and SSBNs are troubling. They are two generations back from us, but still a threat. The good news is that China’s economy seems to have slowed considerably, and the likelihood they can continue this pace of shipbuilding is not high.
The Peanut Farmer’s plan was to turn over the Canal to the Soviets, not the Red Chinese. However, since the ChiComs are the closest thing to Stalinist Communists outside of North Korea and Cuba, he’s probably satisfied they took over the Canal.
The submarines are a not-quite-close second, or at least they would be not-quite-close if we had been keeping up in the art of ASW. Since, by all accounts, we haven't, they're a close second as they offer both initial blockade ability and a hard-to-remove retaliatory strike capability.
They are also building these in numbers:
...and they have built about 15 of these vessels in various variants:
They have been, in addition to their major combatants and amphibious assault, also been concentrating on buuilding more , much more modern and capable logistical support vessels over the last eight years.
As I said, it is a phenominal and impressive across the board buildup and their shipbuilding capacity continues to grow. IMHO, we must take it seriously and find a way to respond.
Appreciate the update, Jeff. It’s a reminder of what the Founding Fathers knew and tried to teach us:
“For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it.” - Patrick Henry
Let’s hope we can relearn the lesson in time.
Hope you and your family will have a Happy and Rewarding New Year!
China has made VAST improvements and they are becoming increasingly more sophisticated. More than anything you have to realize where the average joe came from... and that they came from a messed up craphole.
Now in a short period of time, they are in large part acting more like they have manners and didn't just roll in from the farm. That part I like although admittedly it was kind of fun being treated like a movie star when I was in China long ago.
That being said, the crowd I refer to is big and getting bigger. Shanghai and Beijing both are so different now than 10 years ago.
None the less your average joe that goes to China mistakes what they see on the surface for what really is China.
The underlying core of China is still there... it is just wearing a new face for now.
All in all though, a lot of stuff said about China is sheer propaganda. Much of it is said by westerners with only a partial view of what is going on.
The ignorant who "KNOW" they are right are the ones saying a lot of this stuff.
Also if you only look at things from one perspective and one angle then your view is not going to be correct.
A lot of these mutual fund companies or whoever sum up what they believe with a line chart (however many would be embarrased to show their own actual charts)....
If you look sheerly at economics you miss out on so much more stuff. You have economists who say 'the economy does this---hence china is that'...kind of like the tail wagging the dog.
To me their reasoning displays their ignorance. Once you determine what China is, THEN you can determine what its economy will do, or how it will react to this or that.
If just about anyone starts off talking about China with a number or a statistic... then run the other direction. Problem is, too many of those people are in position to cause problems themselves.
China is still a deeply authoritarian country with a fragile political system.
Me, I have a unique perspective. I look at China from various angles. Definitely on the business side I see a lot. I have also looked extensively into the social side of things, cultural side of things, historical side of things, and political side of things.
Just try to take one of those and your view is distorted. You may be somewhat right in your own little context, but in the big picture you are far far off from reality.
The Type 052C, obviously, has a phased array SPY-1 type radar system. Do these ships also employ an AEGIS type system to go along with it? Do we have any idea how effective their system is? I’m sure the Chinese have been able to “acquire” detailed information about AEGIS.
Also, I understand there are only 2 of these ships. Can we project how many will be built in 5 or 10 years? (Sorry if I missed finding that information on your site).
It seems the most alarm thing about the Chinese is their emerging ability to build large numbers of modern warships while our ship building is in terrible shape.
Our DDX and CGX programs are in trouble. Their costs are skyrocketing. Congress has mandated the CGX be nuclear. I like the planned capabilities of these ships but I’m not sure we’ll ever see any built.
Should we pursue the new ships or should we add technologies to new Arleigh Burke platforms? Long term, we must introduce new classes of warships.
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