The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia (PLAN) - 2008 Update

The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia ^ | January 2, 2008 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA - 2008 UPDATE By Jeff Head - Last Update: January 2, 2008 Throughout 2007 the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has concentrated on integrating its newest surface combatants into its various fleets, while introducing new combatants simultaneously. In particularly, the newer nuclear attack and ballistic missile submarines have been officially seen and photographed, punctuating the PLAN's continued advance and improvement of its nuclear submarine capability, while continuing to build and add new diesel electric submarines. It's new Landing Ship Dock and now new, associated LCAC craft are being integrated into the fleet. The PLAN thus continues its unprecedented modernization and buildup integrating its new guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, fast attack craft, very modern and quiet diesel/electric attack submarines, nuclear attack submarines, nuclear ballistic missile The new Type 051C, guided missiles destroyers have undergone sea trials and their pennant numbers have been added, 115 and 116 as they have joined the North Sea Fleet. The new Type 071 LPD has been conducting sea trials. This is a significant addition to the PLAN, representing the largest amphibious vessel in their inventory and a very modern and capable design of which more are sure to be built. The vessle displaces 20-25,000 tons and is capable of both air assault and amphibious assault as the new LCAC craft which have now started appearing, and which are shown in the following photographs attest. The PLAN has introduced a new LCAC design, clearly intended for their new Lanning Platform Dock. These are very similar in size and function to the US Navy's LCAC and appear capable of carrying at least one main battle tank or and assortment of other vehicles and troops. The LPD appears to be able to hold at least two, and perhaps three of these craft. The new Type 054A guided missiles frigates have been undergoing sea trials. With their vertical launch missiles and heavier displacement and other improvements, they represent extremely modern and capable frigates. The east and south sea fleets will probably both benefit from these vessels, particularly as more are added. The PLAN has offically recognized the existance of the new Type 093 nuclear attack submarine (SSN) and the Type 094 ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). The SSN appears to be roughly equivalent to a US Navy Los Angeles attack submarine in design and capability, and perhaps close to the advanced Los Angeles class. The SSBN carries 12 SLBMs, each with a range of several thousand kilometers. It cannot be over emphasized how critical these developments are in the relative sea power in the western Pacific, particularly as the PLAN builds more of these vessels. It is thought that at least two, and perhaps up to four new SSNs are already launched and through trials, while at least one, and perhaps two of the new SSBNs have been launched to date. In the mean time, steady work continues on the Varyag, the full-deck aircraft carrier undergoing refit at the Dalian naval shipyards. Outside of finish work on the island, the deck and hull seem to be complete with unknown progress on the interior spaces, particularly the propulsion. Significant anticipation as to the launch date of this vessel is building, with some conjecture that it may be launched just before or during the Olympics shecdeuled in Beijing. The PLAN, during this period, has shown a willingness and the capability to spend significant time and monies on training and integration exercises for its newly acquired vessels...all extremely critical in developing the expertise, policies, procedures, and doctrine for their growing modern navy.

Once again, by way of reference, it should be noted that in general numbers, over the last several years, the PLAN has built and launched over 80 new major surface combatants for its fleet. In that same time period, they have not decommissioned any major surface combatants, meaning they have added over 80 major surface combatant vessels to their inventory. In that same period, the US Navy has built 46 new major surface combatants. At the same time, the US Navy has decommissioned 49 major surface combatants, many of them with 10-15 years of service life remaining, meaning a net loss of three major surface combatants in this period.

Clearly the trend shows that the PLAN is rapidly closing the gap between itself and the US Navy, and particualrly when focusing on the Western Pacific, which is where the PLAN is concentrated, this is a trend worthy of watching and considering in future US Navy and other western nation's planning and acquisition schedules.

LINKS OF INTEREST

Jeff Head is an engineering consultant with many years experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently works for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and is also the author of a self-published and best-selling series of military techno-thrillers called the Dragon's Fury that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events. You can learn more about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES

Copyright © 2008 by Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

We have, in the Clinton years, and since, allowed the technology to be bought, traded, and stolen, that is allowing them to do this from a technology standpoint...we are providing them the economic imbalance and thus the hard currency to do it from a manufacturing standpoint.

It does not have to be this way...and they still have a significant ways to go in terms of both technology and numbers. But the trends are in place to allow them to continue to close the gap in both areas. In the next ten to fifteen years, unless we make significnt adjustments, we could be at risk in the WESTPAC...maybe sooner.

[Jeff Head]

Would not be surprised to see something happen in the 2009-2010 time frame, but it will depend on a lot of other factors too. They would most likely act if we were tied up signicantly elsewhere, and given a pretext, either real or manufactured...and also, very crritically, based on just who it is that is in control of the White House and Congress.

[Brad from Tennessee]

They are obviously planning on creating their own “sphere of influence” in the Pacific which means the U.S. ultimately backs off or confronts them.

[Sandreckoner]

“It does not have to be this way”

In order for the rapid/emergency-like scenarios portrayed, yes - it does. It requires that the Chinese already be such a juggernaut that even as a transitional economy they are close to match us militarily. China still has a tremendous period of high growth ahead, whether they ever actually pull ahead of the U.S. in terms of GDP or not. (They’ve got quite a long period of time before they catch Japan, but even at that they’d more than double their existing GDP.) So, if they _already_ have the capabilities to have leapfrogged to “close the gap” this way, then yes - it has to be this way, and publications like The Independent are exactly right when they say China _will_ eclipse America, and there is absolutely, positively, nothing America can do to stop it.

[Tainan]

"Olympics 2008

Taiwan 2009?"

Knock that off!.....(actually that looks about right, but keep it on the downlow)

And a Happy New Year to You & Yours.

[eekitsagreek]

The following link discusses US vs. China through 2030. Interesting discussions afterwards.

http://futurist.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/05/why_the_us_will.html

[maui_hawaii]

China won’t rule the world, but they are big enough right now at this point in time to cause problems.

[tarawa]

Thanks for the update. I’ve been following this pretty closely myself.

[yankeedame]

China won’t rule the world, but they are big enough right now at this point in time to cause problems.

(grin) One doesn't have to be big in order to cause trouble. Ever try to drive with a bee in the car, or sleep with a mosquito in the room?

But seriously, I've always been sorta puzzled about this hand-wringing over China. Why, b/c China has a lot of people? Well, so does India. B/c China is big country? Well, so is India. B/c of China's stated rapid economic growth? A growth triumphed by China itself, based on MYOB numbers which the Chicom will not permit any outsiders (international, or non-cadre Chinese)to look at.

I'm not saying we shouldn't keep our powder dry, but let's not get too Henny-Penny ("...the sky is falling...the sky is falling...") about this.

[DakotaGator]

The PRC is going after the ROC (to use the old, more descriptive acronyms) in the near to mid term at the most. They need a navy powerful enough for successful invasion of Taiwan while deterring US Navy intervention.

They also need many other elements, which they have or are getting (control of the Panama Canal, U.S. beachhead, offensive cyberspace capability, ASAT capability, Strategic Nuclear Weapons Threat, etc.) Much of this has been given to the ChiComs by Democrat traitors; one of whom was the President of the United States and a Communist Agent.

But you know all of this. So does the rest of the country. Most are too busy with their bread and circuses to care.

And all the while the noose tightens. Because the US is Red China’s main enemy. And Red China will happily first humiliate the US Navy to redeem China’s loss of face caused by the Great White Fleet’s ill-executed visit a century ago and continued by its defense of Taiwan today.

As far as the Red Chinese are concerned, payback time is coming soon. And their debt collectors will be visiting the US Navy on their way to Taiwan.

[PGalt]

OUTSTANDING post! Thanks. Thanks to all contributors to this thread.

[Captain Rhino]

This buildup doesn’t brother the Democratic leadership...for the moment. It would only bother someone concerned about the fate of a free Taiwan (and our other allies and friends in eastern Asia) and they are not. It will only bother them when there is a huge blue water PLAN fleet (built with U.S. consumer money) and it is too late to effectively counter it.

(Actually, it is already too late. The old Soviet maxim about the capitalists selling them the rope they are hanged with may, in fact, come true. Enjoy your electronic gizmos and toasters!)

[Jacquerie]

The optimum period for China to press their goals in Taiwan will be when the rats control the presidency and congress. When the time comes, I predict we’ll fold.

[LS]

Those SSNs and SSBNs are troubling. They are two generations back from us, but still a threat. The good news is that China’s economy seems to have slowed considerably, and the likelihood they can continue this pace of shipbuilding is not high.

[steveegg]

The Peanut Farmer’s plan was to turn over the Canal to the Soviets, not the Red Chinese. However, since the ChiComs are the closest thing to Stalinist Communists outside of North Korea and Cuba, he’s probably satisfied they took over the Canal.

[steveegg]

Those landing craft are the most troubling developments to me. That's the final piece of the puzzle in Red China's march to the resources, both financial and raw.

The submarines are a not-quite-close second, or at least they would be not-quite-close if we had been keeping up in the art of ASW. Since, by all accounts, we haven't, they're a close second as they offer both initial blockade ability and a hard-to-remove retaliatory strike capability.

[Jeff Head]

They are also acquiring 8-12 of these from the Russians, with the possibility of a license build:

They are also building these in numbers:

...and they have built about 15 of these vessels in various variants:

They have been, in addition to their major combatants and amphibious assault, also been concentrating on buuilding more , much more modern and capable logistical support vessels over the last eight years.

As I said, it is a phenominal and impressive across the board buildup and their shipbuilding capacity continues to grow. IMHO, we must take it seriously and find a way to respond.

[tarheelswamprat]

Appreciate the update, Jeff. It’s a reminder of what the Founding Fathers knew and tried to teach us:

“For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it.” - Patrick Henry

Let’s hope we can relearn the lesson in time.

Hope you and your family will have a Happy and Rewarding New Year!

[maui_hawaii]

Make no mistake. I have been in and out of China a lot over the last 10-15 years.

China has made VAST improvements and they are becoming increasingly more sophisticated. More than anything you have to realize where the average joe came from... and that they came from a messed up craphole.

Now in a short period of time, they are in large part acting more like they have manners and didn't just roll in from the farm. That part I like although admittedly it was kind of fun being treated like a movie star when I was in China long ago.

That being said, the crowd I refer to is big and getting bigger. Shanghai and Beijing both are so different now than 10 years ago.

None the less your average joe that goes to China mistakes what they see on the surface for what really is China.

The underlying core of China is still there... it is just wearing a new face for now.

All in all though, a lot of stuff said about China is sheer propaganda. Much of it is said by westerners with only a partial view of what is going on.

The ignorant who "KNOW" they are right are the ones saying a lot of this stuff.

Also if you only look at things from one perspective and one angle then your view is not going to be correct.

A lot of these mutual fund companies or whoever sum up what they believe with a line chart (however many would be embarrased to show their own actual charts)....

If you look sheerly at economics you miss out on so much more stuff. You have economists who say 'the economy does this---hence china is that'...kind of like the tail wagging the dog.

To me their reasoning displays their ignorance. Once you determine what China is, THEN you can determine what its economy will do, or how it will react to this or that.

If just about anyone starts off talking about China with a number or a statistic... then run the other direction. Problem is, too many of those people are in position to cause problems themselves.

China is still a deeply authoritarian country with a fragile political system.

Me, I have a unique perspective. I look at China from various angles. Definitely on the business side I see a lot. I have also looked extensively into the social side of things, cultural side of things, historical side of things, and political side of things.

Just try to take one of those and your view is distorted. You may be somewhat right in your own little context, but in the big picture you are far far off from reality.

[ryan71]

Jeff,

The Type 052C, obviously, has a phased array SPY-1 type radar system. Do these ships also employ an AEGIS type system to go along with it? Do we have any idea how effective their system is? I’m sure the Chinese have been able to “acquire” detailed information about AEGIS.

Also, I understand there are only 2 of these ships. Can we project how many will be built in 5 or 10 years? (Sorry if I missed finding that information on your site).

It seems the most alarm thing about the Chinese is their emerging ability to build large numbers of modern warships while our ship building is in terrible shape.

Our DDX and CGX programs are in trouble. Their costs are skyrocketing. Congress has mandated the CGX be nuclear. I like the planned capabilities of these ships but I’m not sure we’ll ever see any built.

Should we pursue the new ships or should we add technologies to new Arleigh Burke platforms? Long term, we must introduce new classes of warships.