Clinton: Fade to Black
Posted on 01/03/2008 6:32:47 AM PST by jdm
The final polling before the Iowa caucuses has come from a joint Reuters/Zogby/C-SPAN survey, and the news for Hillary looks bad. She now comes in third behind the inexperienced duo of Barack Obama and John Edwards. This continues a slow fade for Hillary that had its start in a botched November debate answer:
Democrat Barack Obama surged to a four-point lead over John Edwards in Iowa, with Hillary Clinton fading to third just hours before the first presidential nominating contest, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday.
Obama and Edwards gained ground overnight in the tracking poll, and Clinton fell four points to third place -- a finish that, if it held, would deal a dramatic setback to the one-time Democratic front-runner.
Obama was at 31 percent among likely Democratic caucus-goers, Edwards at 27 percent and Clinton 24 percent. No other Democrat was in double digits.
In the Republican race, Mike Huckabee expanded his lead to six points, 31 to 25 percent, over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the one-time leader in Iowa who has attacked Huckabee for his record as Arkansas governor.
Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is in third place in the Republican race at 11 percent and Arizona Sen. John McCain slipped two points to 10 percent. Texas Rep. Ron Paul also registered 10 percent.
The poll uses a good sampling size; over 900 likely caucus-goers for each party, surveyed by normal telephone questioning rather than on-line surveys. The margin of error does not account for the gap between Hillary and Obama any longer, and now the gap between Edwards and Hillary almost exceeds it as well. The fade looks real, and in the first test among the Democratic frontrunners, she could lose her greatest asset -- her air of inevitability.
Only eight weeks ago, Hillary appeared untouchable. She had just finished pushing her money totals past Obama in an impressive third quarter of fundraising, and the Clinton political machine had proven itself highly competent in ground-game organization. Unfortunately, Hillary proved that all of the organization in the world won't help a bad candidate. She fumbled twice within two minutes on the Spitzer plan to issue drivers licenses in New York to illegal immigrants, and then fumbled it twice in the days following the debate. Clearly rattled, the campaign then went on a bizarre attack on Obama that included criticizing him for his kindergarten essays.
Hillary proved unable to pull herself out of the corkscrew spiral. She cackled during a question directed at Obama in the last Iowa debate in a scene that only needed flying monkeys to complete her transformation. This week, she attempted to sell a story about flying into a sniper zone, but forgot to mention that she brought Sheryl Crow, Sinbad, and her own 15-year-old daughter along for the trip, making her recollection look like a serious prevarication.
It's a wonder she's only seven points behind. She should be seventeen points behind in Iowa.
On the Republican side, the race looks rather steady. Huckabee still leads Romney by six, and Fred Thompson has a shot at a third-place finish after some heavy-duty retail politicking in the last three weeks. McCain may still win that spot even without seriously campaigning there, and Ron Paul looks poised to surprise as well.
Here are my predictions about tonight's results. For the Democrats, I think this poll has it correct, and it finishes Obama-Edwards-Clinton. The Republicans wind up with Huckabee beating Romney by three points, and John McCain finishes third, followed by Thompson and then Paul.
The only thing worse for Hillary than losing to a Republican in the general election would be losing to a Democrat in the primary who later wins the general election.
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
Clinton: Fade to Black
I never thought I’d cheer for Osamabama or Silky Pony, but I’m cheering for them today.
I really want Edwards to come in second and Obama for first. We have seen in the past how eloquent Hillary becomes when she is under pressure and when things aren’t going her way. With a loss in Iowa she would really have to stick to script and I don’t think she can do it. She’ll be so tight she’ll squeak when she walks and between her and her husband... one of them is bound to end of her candidacy. This is barring any arkancide on the parts of the other candidates - of course.
Maybe not. Looks like she’ll get very few votes from those who get a do-over.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1947656/posts
Just like Kerry, that story is seared......SEARED.. into her memory.
....and that's when it's gonna hit the fan for the media!
Go Fred GO
Will it be PC to blame this on Bush too? Or should this be Carl Row’s fault?????
Will Hillary still be able to take things from the WH? Who will Bill play cigars with? So many questions!!!!
Third place isn't bad, but a relatively distant third that is close to 4th and 5th places is bad.
I hope he can pull off closer to 20% than to 10%.
Wishful thinking.....
Can’t she remain in the race long after early defeats and still prevail — she is “inevitable”, we were told by the big media? She even called her election inevitable.
If Hillary finishes third in Iowa, I will be celebrating, but it will take either blessed silver bullets or wooden stake through the heart to stop her presidential ambitions. I pity Obama if he wins big in Iowa as Hillary’s operatives will pull out all the stops and conduct the worst smear campaign in history.
Be careful what you wish for. I think Obama will be the hardest of the Big Three Dems to beat in November.
Until proven otherwise, a third place finish in Iowa for Her Heinous sets up the Klintoon comeback kid scenario for placing higher in New Hampshire where she’s running either first or second depending on the poll.
Obama has the Oprah crowd and the left-left lefties, but I can’t imagine the bulk of the dems going for him...
EXCUSE ME? I can't stand the Breck Girl, but INEXPERIENCED? If anything, he's the ONLY one of the three (Breckster, Obama, Clinton) with experience running in a presidential election. He's DONE this before, her Thighness has not. This just shows the absolute favoritism of the MSM for Hillary.
If the MSM has anything to say about, Hillary WILL be elected...
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