Posted on 01/03/2008 6:32:47 AM PST by jdm
The final polling before the Iowa caucuses has come from a joint Reuters/Zogby/C-SPAN survey, and the news for Hillary looks bad. She now comes in third behind the inexperienced duo of Barack Obama and John Edwards. This continues a slow fade for Hillary that had its start in a botched November debate answer:
Democrat Barack Obama surged to a four-point lead over John Edwards in Iowa, with Hillary Clinton fading to third just hours before the first presidential nominating contest, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday.
Obama and Edwards gained ground overnight in the tracking poll, and Clinton fell four points to third place -- a finish that, if it held, would deal a dramatic setback to the one-time Democratic front-runner.
Obama was at 31 percent among likely Democratic caucus-goers, Edwards at 27 percent and Clinton 24 percent. No other Democrat was in double digits.
In the Republican race, Mike Huckabee expanded his lead to six points, 31 to 25 percent, over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the one-time leader in Iowa who has attacked Huckabee for his record as Arkansas governor.
Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is in third place in the Republican race at 11 percent and Arizona Sen. John McCain slipped two points to 10 percent. Texas Rep. Ron Paul also registered 10 percent.
The poll uses a good sampling size; over 900 likely caucus-goers for each party, surveyed by normal telephone questioning rather than on-line surveys. The margin of error does not account for the gap between Hillary and Obama any longer, and now the gap between Edwards and Hillary almost exceeds it as well. The fade looks real, and in the first test among the Democratic frontrunners, she could lose her greatest asset -- her air of inevitability.
Only eight weeks ago, Hillary appeared untouchable. She had just finished pushing her money totals past Obama in an impressive third quarter of fundraising, and the Clinton political machine had proven itself highly competent in ground-game organization. Unfortunately, Hillary proved that all of the organization in the world won't help a bad candidate. She fumbled twice within two minutes on the Spitzer plan to issue drivers licenses in New York to illegal immigrants, and then fumbled it twice in the days following the debate. Clearly rattled, the campaign then went on a bizarre attack on Obama that included criticizing him for his kindergarten essays.
Hillary proved unable to pull herself out of the corkscrew spiral. She cackled during a question directed at Obama in the last Iowa debate in a scene that only needed flying monkeys to complete her transformation. This week, she attempted to sell a story about flying into a sniper zone, but forgot to mention that she brought Sheryl Crow, Sinbad, and her own 15-year-old daughter along for the trip, making her recollection look like a serious prevarication.
It's a wonder she's only seven points behind. She should be seventeen points behind in Iowa.
On the Republican side, the race looks rather steady. Huckabee still leads Romney by six, and Fred Thompson has a shot at a third-place finish after some heavy-duty retail politicking in the last three weeks. McCain may still win that spot even without seriously campaigning there, and Ron Paul looks poised to surprise as well.
Here are my predictions about tonight's results. For the Democrats, I think this poll has it correct, and it finishes Obama-Edwards-Clinton. The Republicans wind up with Huckabee beating Romney by three points, and John McCain finishes third, followed by Thompson and then Paul.
No matter how well Obama or Edwards do, Hillary will still win in Iowa due to her alliance with Bill Richardson. Any democrat candidate who does not obtain 15% of the votes must delegate his votes to one of the front runners.
Sadly, Hillary has this sewn up. The game is rigged against the will of the people.
Don’t worry, after Hillary’s done with her 8 years, Chelsea’s gonna move in. By then, the country won’t even look similar.
Enjoy...
Don't bet on it, I predict she wins the nomination in a BIG way. As for the GOP, I believe it is still Rootie's to lose. That's why this Huckster distraction may be harmful to romney, the only guy I believe who can beat rootie.
I am going on record to caution everyone who believes Clinton is in her death throes. There is no one on this site who would cheer that louder were it true, but sadly it is NOT.
No matter what the “results” of the Hawkeye Cauci, it will be a Clinton victory. In fact, I believe she will finish first anyway, but if she finishes 2nd or 3rd, it will be spun as a victory by the clintonistas and their media whores and she may even get more traction in that scenario.
I expect two major tactics to be unleashed very shortly within the Clinton strategery—
First: the figurative asassination of Obama by the Clinton machine will begin in earnest. Edwards is a mere puff pastry and will have no lasting impression on anyone;
Second: the announcement that McCain or Huckabee or Paul or some other similar non-entity will be defecting to go independent, in a faustian bargain with Clinton.
I hate to be so negative, but I truly believe the Clintons are of evil, they serve the vile dark side, and they are NOT done, no matter the results of this silly Iowa popularity contest.
What keeps me from being very angry about the whole thing is the sad fact that I can’t do a damn thing about it anyway (other than vote against her in the national elections). But more importantly, good does triumph over evil in the long run, and the Clintons will receive their just rewards at some point in their miserable lives.
Having said all that, I would love to see her fat ass handed to her today and in all the primaries.
Don't underestimate his appeal. All the Dem candidates have identical positions on the issues but Obama has star quality, which the others lack. A 35% win in Iowa, another in NH and suddenly he's the prohibitive favorite. And he'll be tough to beat in November, tougher than most here believe.
I live in the super-lib Bay Area and I have seen only two Hillary bumper-stickers. On the many cars that still sport their Kerry/Edwards stickers, I'm seeing more Obama stickers than the Hildebeast or the Breck Girl.
It's weird actually -- I assumed Hillary stickers would be harassing me from the bumper of every Subaru and Prius within hours of their printing.
You could be right, for millions of Americans will feel that they must vote for Obama to prove that they are “not prejudiced”.
Does the candidate delegate his votes, or do the voters have to choose among those that received 15% or more?
Still though millions think that HRC is in the inevitable choice who will produce a “good economy” and “fix” health care.
I'm not surprised. I think her core constituency is very narrow. Largely upper-middle class, late middle-age white feminists. Men dislike her, most minorities see right through her phoniness and young people can't stand her. Once the inevitability argument goes away her poll numbers will plummet.
I think you're on to something here. People will vote for him so they can feel good about themselves.
Especially "Sheets" Byrd!
No, Huma will disappear, as suddenly, and as mysteriously as she appeared, since there will no longer be a need for the particular sevices she is providing for her real employer (which is *not* Senator Clinton...)
the infowarrior
I know this is off the wall, but what suddenly came to mind was a song I once heard on Dr. Demento: “I Owe a Lot to Iowa Pot.”
The looniness of this election is underway.
Good riddance! I’m so sick of the damned Clinton’s.
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