Posted on 01/03/2008 7:40:15 AM PST by K-oneTexas
2008 – The Beginning of the End of Terror? Col. Jeff Bearor (USMC, ret.) I have a prediction – 2008 will be the year the combined power of the West. Led by the U.S., the West will finally break the back of al Qaeda. Independent al Qaeda cells and fellow-traveler organizations will continue to spring up around the world and Islamofascist terrorism won’t be over by any means, but the main protagonist organization that is al Qaeda will be substantially defeated by the end of the year. Despite the fact that terrorists in Iraq can still stage intermittent large attacks in the country like the one that occurred at a Baghdad funeral this week, the tide has turned in Iraq. It is the Iraqi people themselves, supported by American and allied troops and a national will, who will ensure the death of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia (AQIM), as the murderers call themselves. Any organization whose favorite targets include funerals and weddings, and which uses babies to hide bombs, cannot possibly claim legitimacy. The majority of people in Iraq see that as have the Afghanis before them. As fast as AQIM can recruit new murderers and get them into Iraq, Iraqi and U.S. forces find them, fix them and kill or capture them. This is because normal Iraqi people see the interlopers and turn them in to Iraqi and American patrols as quickly as they can. You might think from mainstream press reports that there are thousands and thousands of potential suicide bombers just itching for the chance to die blowing up U.S. troops in Iraq. The fact is that the few attacks AQIM has been able to pull off recently in Iraq target locals, not U.S. forces. Iraqis may not love us, but they hate al Qaeda foreign fighters even more. Because of the continued and growing success in Iraq, U.S. and allied forces will be able to shift greater focus to the campaign in Afghanistan. As surge forces are withdrawn over the next six months from Iraq, we’ll have greater capacity to transfer forces into that fight and finally root out the Taliban from their hiding places. Without the Taliban to protect them in the border regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan, the al Qaeda leadership will come under increasing pressure. Perhaps even the Pakistanis will finally decide which side they are on and take the fight against al Qaeda seriously. Our NATO allies need to step up and support that fight with combat forces unfettered by national proscriptions on when and where they can fight. Military forces in the combat zone that can’t (or won’t fight) are wasting oxygen, attention and resources. There is probably only one organization or group of people that could stop this inevitable progress and ultimate victory in the fight against terrorism: the leadership of the U.S. Congress. Do not underestimate the power of petty partisan politicians to work actively to derail the progress in Iraq paid for in blood by our Soldiers and Marines. From flip-floppers who “voted for the war before they voted against it” to those who will literally do anything to ensure their party wins the next presidential election, the American people will want to watch Congress very closely this year. This isn’t 1975. Back then Congress, in a fit of pique, voted to cut off funding and support to the South Vietnamese – virtually guaranteeing North Vietnam’s victory when their army rolled across the DMV. In hindsight, while that act of perfidy directly caused the defeat of the South Vietnamese Army and government and indirectly caused the subsequent murder and imprisonment of millions in Southeast Asia, its direct effect on U.S. security was small. This is a different time and a different enemy. The stakes are higher now than in 1975. The dark forces of global Jihadi terrorism mean nothing less than to force the West into retreat and reverse the march of freedom. We’ll only lose this year if we quit before the job is done.
Good post. Sums things up rather well. The overall war will last a long time, however.
Very upbeat, the contrast between January of 08 and January of 07 couldn’t be more stark.
Remember what North Vietnamese Communist Party Secretary Le Duan observed in December 1974: “The Americans have withdrawn…this is what marks the opportune moment.”
Al Qaida made serious strategic blunders when it attacked Saudi Arabia and when it publicly went “all in” on Iraq. In the former case, they bit the hand that had fed them. On Iraq, they must have concluded victory was certain and went public with their annoucement that Iraq was the central front in the clash of ideologies. Now they’ve lost the central front. They lost because our boots on the ground can fight, build, counsel and lead all at the same time. As FDT said, the average 20 year-old in Iraq knows more about international relations than the pundits in Washington.
Excellent article.
I have a prediction - 2008 will be the year the combined power of the West. Led by the U.S., the West will finally break the back of al Qaeda. Independent al Qaeda cells and fellow-traveler organizations will continue to spring up around the world and Islamofascist terrorism won't be over by any means, but the main protagonist organization that is al Qaeda will be substantially defeated by the end of the year... Any organization whose favorite targets include funerals and weddings, and which uses babies to hide bombs, cannot possibly claim legitimacy. The majority of people in Iraq see that as have the Afghanis before them. As fast as AQIM can recruit new murderers and get them into Iraq, Iraqi and U.S. forces find them, fix them and kill or capture them. This is because normal Iraqi people see the interlopers and turn them in to Iraqi and American patrols as quickly as they can.
Ping!
Excellent, thanks.
Great article. Al-Qaida could very well be dissolved this year. We may even find bin Laden and/or al-Zawahiri. Of course, if the election goes wrong it won’t matter...when Hillary or Obama won’t stop Iran from nuking Tel Aviv and/or Washington off the map.
2008 will be an “Indian Summer” or a false impression that we have won. Al-Qaida, rooting for a democrat victory in November 2008, will lay low and focus on rebuilding. They will give up on Iraq and lay in wait for Pakistan.
Once a Democrat US President is elected they will focus completely on Pakistan. Likely overthrowing Musharif and gaining control of its Nukes. While a Democrate White House sits on its hands and strives to work through the UN to avoid appear too unilateral like the previous Bush administration. The Democrat + RINO Congress will make it clear that the bank is closed for new fronts in the War on Terror.
2009 will be the year terrorism returns from self imposed hibernation. Expect a coordinated alliance between Iran and Jihadist Pakistan with possible simultaneous nuclear strikes against New York and Israel.
America’s best friend in 2009 will be India.
Be on the lookout for a new term in 2009. “Mass Martyrdom” where an entire country sacrifices itself for a nuclear strike in Allah’s name.
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