Posted on 01/05/2008 1:53:28 PM PST by shrinkermd
I just excerpted the portion on BLS statistics:
"For many months now, there had been plenty of warning that recession was lurking out there in the tall grass. ...economy was tanking, led by manufacturing, which was supposed be enjoying a boomlet thanks to the debased dollar and demand from abroad, and retailing, which presumably could always count, in fair weather or foul, on consumers to consume. Alas, it ain't necessarily so.
Came Friday and with it the crusher in the form of an exceptionally ugly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on jobs -- or more precisely, the lack of them -- in December. As Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood of the Liscio Report neatly summed it up, the payroll number was quite weak and its household counterpart even weaker.
"All told, supposedly 18,000 jobs were added. We might note right off the bat that there were no fewer than 66,000 mythical jobs added, courtesy of the infamous birth/death adjustment; save for that curious confection, the total would have gone considerably negative. That handy adjustment, incidentally, was responsible for 89% of all the reported payroll additions in 2007.
"Unemployment jumped to 5%, from 4.7%. And the big losers were widely dispersed, paced by construction, where 49,000 jobs vanished last month and manufacturing, which lost 31,000. Apart from health-care and restaurants and bars, there were virtually no conspicuous gainers. As Philippa and Doug quip: "Our new economic model: eat, drink and check into the hospital."
(Excerpt) Read more at online.barrons.com ...
Alan, you’re finally right!
That wolf must have been on a slow train, because it took him 20 years to get here.
How is five percent unemployment bad?
Yeah , the end is near . Sort of , maybe , it all depends. What a dope. It’s like saying , the ice is melting spring is coming , i told you , i told you ......
No. Construction does not slow during the winter months.
That has absolutely nothing to do with this.
Certainly not during a republican administration anyway.
The truth is that we don't manufacture a lot of the products that folks from abroad and our own folks want to buy. So our merchandise trade deficit will not improve very much. After all, there is a natural limit to how much scrap metal, chicken feet and waste paper we can export.
“Construction does not slow during the winter months.”
But it does from November through the first of the year.
Commercial anyways. Hence the December statistics. Just my 2 cents.
HVACR Mechanical Contractor.
5% unemployment is considered full employment.
Manufacturing must and will go down within the USA because of an expading global company. Manufacturing is being outsourced which is capitalism in action.
We live in a new era of dynamic economic movement and reallocation. Get used to it.
What we have also been doing is dumping antiquated manufacturing processes that require high additional manual input.
Small appliance assembly comes to mind ~ and artificial flowers would be typical.
China has the hands; they have been taking on the relics of the industrial age.
Way to make a buck or two, but the USA, Japan and parts of Western Europe are already several centuries ahead of the rest of the world, and the gap is widening.
The coordinated administrative hold against employment was done a month earlier than usual. The corporate purpose in the planned recession is to bring oil prices down (freight fuel), in order to resume the import binge. ...and maybe a hope on the side that temporarily choking growth in places like China in order to continue the status quo.
It won’t work very well as planned, though. Most of the people looking for work aren’t the people driving fuel hogs every time they get bored. Lay off much of the middle class, and it might work.
The lock against employment usually occurs in January/February, when the top administrators head south for their winter vacations.
It’s not but the change could be ominous.
Yes but the labor in the vast majority of home construction are illegals and don’t show up in the stats.
This is why the home construction bust has not affect the economy as it has in the past. Illegals just go get another job. When Americans get laid off they sit around and complain and draw unemployment.
John
-----
Economic literacy PING!!
Hank
Sensationalism by the Media, everywhere you turn we have a negative report this and that. Subprime began the liberal’s avalanche and was created by the left In congress.
Banks giving out mortgage loans to people that can’t afford the loans has started a recession and Bush is pretending the economy is doing great! He is the predident, issue an executive order to lower the payroll taxes. People like myself will go broke because we can not just stop our 401k plans and the criminals in the USA knows about all of this
Hank
First drink, tomorrow - air.
It is winter and the employment numbers in the building trades will fluctuate, a .3 percent increase in unemployment and the media acts like a bunch of Lemmings,
This is playing out for the left, Iraq is clearly a success and this is the only hope of the left, to portray the President as incompetent on the economy.
The left has been in the majority in Congress since 2006, what have they done for you,
ZIP
“How is five percent unemployment bad?”
the old adage was that 5% unemployment was the equivalent of full employment as there are always 5% unable or unwilling to find work. Does that still stand, at least in general terms??
Reason: the bars and restaurants have increased their per drink price so high and folks are drinking at home. That’s called pricing yourself out of business!!
What do you mean you can't stop your 401K? After Enron federal rules allow people to diversify company stock after 3 years. Some allow it right away.
Absolutely.
You are right.
I was sarcastically making fun of the biased media for not pointing out this important reality.
Perhaps poobear needs to leave the building.
Goodnight everybody!
Abelson is a perma-bear, and has been for at least 20 years. He predicts oncoming disaster when things are good, and is suicidal any other time.
I think these numbers are seasonally adjusted, so the “natural” decline in construction jobs during the winter is already included in the figures.
A 5% umemployment rate for one month is historically on the low end. You have to go back to Eisenhower to find better quarterly and semi-annual/annual averages.
Winter traditionally creates fewer jobs, and spring/summer traditionally creates more jobs.
It’s like people traditionally used to PBJs, who recently have been feasting on New York Strip, getting upset because they’re “stepping down” to eat ribeye.
Add to that that nationwide there are other major piping projects slated to go. I live in the Chicagoland area, our scale is one of the top 10 in the country for pipefitters, and we don't think we'll be able to get the manpower from other areas to meet our demands.
What do you have when you have all the pipefitters nationwide working, and still need more? A lot of pipefitters making a decent wage, working overtime, making even more. Buying new trucks and houses. Going on vacations and out to eat. Oh and don't forget drinking. The distileries are going to need expansion projects just to keep up with the pipefitters with money in their pockets at the bar.
Projecting out further, the country is going to need a seriously upgraded energy system. Again putting pipefitters (and other tradesmen) to work.
Unless something serious happens in this country, I feel that the next 5-10 years are going to be very good as far as work goes. Whoever is in office will be able to enjoy the benefits of whats been building up for the last 6 years (or longer).
The construction field will be in overdrive come next election, and whoevers in office will take credit for it.
Personally, I think the "housing slump" is more of a media creation than anything. All doom and gloom and wo, because of the evil Bush and his evil Republicans. But Hillary and Barrack, and the rest of the Demonrats will save us. And all will be well. Granted, housing has slumped, but its not on account of the economy. Its because over the last few years housing has been on a fast track on account of sub prime lending and "creative financing". Over time housing will straighten itself out. But in the mean time "its all BUSH'S FAULT."
I've been in construction in the Chicago area for 20 years. I have NEVER seen so many tower cranes in the city.
I was recently working on a 50 story building, looking 2 blocks south, they were clearing the lot for the Chicago Spire (2000 ft.), soon to start construction. About 6 blocks away, Trump Tower Chicago is being built (1400 ft). I saw a Wikipedia page on highrises in Chicago, and there are 2 or 3 other 1000 ft + buildings either under construction or preparing for construction. Another 5 or 6 in the 900 ft range. And probably 20 or so at 500 ft or more.
The building I was on were condos from $800,000 on up. (with emphasis on UP). All these other highrises being built in Chicago, it seems about 1/2 the space is going to be condos. And being the heart of the city means BIG DOLLAR condos.
Now either a lot of developers, like Donald Trump, have made huge gambles and are going to lose, with these huge buildings. Or these developers see things on the horizon that the media doesn't want seen. (At least until Hillary saves us all)
San Francisco and Las Vegas are the same. Huge projects going up in all directions. I don't expect we are going to see any of them abandoned, like in Pyongyang. ;)
My municipality increased local taxes so high that they drove the residents to drink, which they then taxed at ten percent!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.