Posted on 01/08/2008 6:02:07 AM PST by connell
New Hampshire is voting today, and there's lots of polling, analysis, and news.
Rasmussen Poll:
New Hampshire: McCain 32% Romney 31%
Rasmussen also now has new head-to-heads:
Obama Opens Lead Over Giuliani and Romney
Did Bloomberg's possible "post-partisan" presidential no-party third-party candidacy just take a stumble?
Ed Morrissey appears to think so. (He also argues that Bloomberg would hurt the Democrats more than the Republicans. I am not so sure that that is true, as I argued here.)
Of course, AS WE REPORTED LAST MONTH, Ron Paul will very likely go third-party:
Ron Paul on the Verge of Going 3rd Party
Many people are writing off Giuliani, but his campaign...
(Excerpt) Read more at modernconservative.com ...
By my count on FR...The majority are Fred supporters, yet they aren’t showing up at the voting booth in Iowa or NH and he is consistently 3rd or 4th in the national polls. Where is the disconnect?
Being from California, I will never again buy into the electable argument. We removed a horrible sitting governor (Gray Davis) to get our "electable" man in office (Ahnuld). Today, and every day, he routinely sides with the Democrats, flaunts his independence ("I don't need the Republicans now"), and is rapidly putting our state back into the very same, or worse, economic hole (tens of billions in the red) for which the previous governor was removed.
I, a broken-glass Republican voter for the past 27 years, will sit home this election rather than vote for "electable" liberal with an R after his name.
He’s got a lot more class than that...I hope.
Was really interesting is he has outspent by a huge margin every other member of the field and, if he loses NH, will not have a win in any state to speak of..
He cant keep lending himself money..
For the past eight years Fred has enjoyed a private life... but he also has been an adviser to the Whitehouse and the State Department on Foreign Affairs... Served Conservatives as an adviser on may occasions... he successfully pushed SCOTUS Chief Justice John Roberts through the heavily mined dim Senate, he finished out gored-head’s Senate term and ran, won and served two full terms and retired like he promised he would do... he served as a Federal Prosecutor and a HIGHLY successful practicing attorney... he married again and has young children while balancing a very successful career as a fine and well respected actor. You need an education and you need to do some research... you owe it to all Conservative Americans and you owe it to the spirit of Ronald Reagan.... voting carries with it responsibility beyond sound bites, Armani suits, Rolex watches and a square chin!
This is great information that FREEPERS know about but nobody else does. This is the number ONE problem of FRed’s campaign. If you ask somebody off the street what FRed has been doing the last eight years...at best you will get he was on a TV show. Ask what Romney did and they will say Governor of Mass...why? Because he is constantly giving news reports on what he does and did. FRed can still get this but he is going to have to get his message out to the people who don’t read his website or read FR. That is just the way it is. Look at Obama, he is not saying a word about substance, but he is in the news. That is what FRed needs to do. Stop ignoring the press and play the game. Obama was also thought dead in the water a short time ago during the summer, but look now...things change, but Obama just got some exposure.
That's because many Republicans won't.
To all the Romney supports: b/c you insist on making the good (Romney) the enemy of the Perfect (Thompson), *you* are giving us McCain..
Im torn between the two. Huck and Thompson are my 1 and 2 candidates (in no particular order). I suppose Ill see how things are shaping up 2/5 and throw my support to one of them that day. Abortion is my #1 issue and I think those two have the most legitimate positions on it (But I think Huck is more passionate about it than Thompson.
Oh were concerned about the endorsements not their actual positions.. Dont worry mitts not ‘one of them NRA guys’
“He’s got a lot more class than that...I hope.”
I would hope so too. Clinton LOST New Hamphire but he totally spun the media that because he didn’t lose in double digits, he was the victor.
The media bought it... hook, line and sinker.
In about 1 week, after All-Important-Michigan, we will start to see a little table on front pages that provide delegate count.
It is that moment that the actual score keeping will start and it will become clear that when states are not Winner-Take-All, which is 39 of the 50, “winning” the state doesn’t mean very much at all. The donor base will soon come to understand this and realize it is winning delegates that matters, not winning states.
Amusingly, 3 of the 11 WTA states are Utah, New York and Arizona.
This is clearly bad news for those who don’t want a Guilliani as nominee because NY has a ton of delegates that are essentially already his.
Winning delegates is about getting 2nd and 3rd place — over and over again, and an occasional first is nice. But I think we can all forget about a 2000 avalanche of support to just one candidate. It won’t happen. The nominee will have a plurality of delegates, not a majority.
As has been explained, that ‘published report’ was from politico, a site that is very McCain-friendly. They were spreading speculation publicly in order to help McCain.
As for the original speculation, our very own Plutarch raised it in December and he is right: It’s quite possible that if and when Thompson drops out, he will endorse McCain.
None of that speculation helps Romney. It helps McCain.
Bwahahaha! You mean the John McCain who said he never pushed for amnesty?
Sen. McCain, 2003: “Amnesty Has To Be An Important Part.” “’Amnesty has to be an important part because there are people who have lived in this country for 20, 30 or 40 years, who have raised children here and pay taxes here and are not citizens. That has to be a component of it,’ he said. ‘How can we have a temporary worker program if we’re not allowing people who have been here for 30 years to hold jobs here?’” (C. T. Revere, “McCain Pushes Amnesty, Guest-Worker Program,” Tucson Citizen, 5/29/03)
In 2003, Sen. McCain Also Said, “I Think We Can Set Up A Program Where Amnesty Is Extended To A Certain Number Of People Who Are Eligible...” “’I believe we can pursue the security programs and at the same time set up a system where people can come here and work on a temporary basis. I think we can set up a program where amnesty is extended to a certain number of people who are eligible and at the same time make sure that we have some control over people who come in and out of this country,’ he said.” (C. T. Revere, “McCain Pushes Amnesty, Guest-Worker Program,” Tucson Citizen, 5/29/03)
“Come Back” from what? He is already in the lead of overall delegates and likely by votes after today. A narrow win or loss in NH won’t change that much either way, since the vote will be close and the delegates awarded proportionally.
It’s McCain that the MSM is shilling as the come back story.
LOL! McCain's flip flop list is longer than anyone else's!
McCain flipped on the Bush tax cuts.
Most conservatives believe the biggest domestic success of George Bush's first term were his tax cuts. John McCain voted against them, more than once, before finally flip-flopping and voting for them this year.
McCain flipped on gay marriage.
Voted NO on constitutional ban of same-sex marriage. (Jun 2006)
Voted YES on prohibiting same-sex marriage. (Sep 1996)
McCain flipped on ethanol.
McCain was anti-ethanol when he was skipping Iowa in 1999. In 2006 he was pro-ethanol while campaigning in Iowa . Now he's pretty anti-ethanol again that he's decided to bypass Iowa. (THIS ONE IS A TRUE FLIP FLOP . . . Been on both sides of the issue multiple times)
McCain flipped on Roe.
In NH in 1999 McCain told reporters that "in the short term, or even the long term, I would not support repeal of Roe v. Wade." He explained that overturning Roe would force "women in America to [undergo] illegal and dangerous operations." In 2006, campaigning for the GOP nomination as a conservative, McCain said the opposite.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me ask one question about abortion. Then I want to turn to Iraq. You're for a constitutional amendment banning abortion, with some exceptions for life and rape and incest.
MCCAIN: Rape, incest and the life of the mother. Yes.
STEPHANOPOULOS: So is President Bush, yet that hasn't advanced in the six years he's been in office. What are you going to do to advance a constitutional amendment that President Bush hasn't done?
MCCAIN: I don't think a constitutional amendment is probably going to take place, but I do believe that it's very likely or possible that the Supreme Court should — could overturn Roe v. Wade...."
McCain flipped on climate change:
Kyoto By Any Other Name Would Still Smell As Rotten: John McCain proposed a radical bill, the McCain-Lieberman Stewardship Act, that is not all that different from the Kyoto Protocol. McCain's bill would do cataclysmic damage to our economy. In the name of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by an insignificant percentage, that not even the biggest proponents of Kyoto believe would have a significant impact on the weather, here's the damage John McCain would be willing to do to our economy (from an article by Marlo Lewis in National Review).
McCain flipped on stem cells.
Initially supporting the President's restriction as to federal funding, McCain then asked for an expansion to include wider research saying, "I believe that we need to fund this. This is a tough issue for those of us in the pro-life community. I would remind you that these stem cells are either going to be discarded or perpetually frozen. We need to do what we can to relieve human suffering. It's a tough issue. I support federal funding." Source: 2007 GOP primary debate, at Reagan library, hosted by MSNBC May 3, 2007
McCain signed a letter from 58 Senators to the President
" Dear Mr. President:
We write to urge you to expand the current federal policy concerning embryonic stem cell research.
McCain flipped on faith
The Associated Press broke a story about McCain’s statement in Sept 2007 saying that he is in fact a Baptist, despite his past comments that he is an Episcopalian. The news hook is that McCain made these comments while he was in South Carolina, which happens to have a lot of Baptist voters. In a June 2007 interview with McClatchy Newspapers, the senator said his wife and two of their children have been baptized in North Phoenix Baptist Church, but he had not. “I didn’t find it necessary to do so for my spiritual needs,” he said. He told McClatchy he found the Baptist church more fulfilling than the Episcopalian church, but still referred to himself as an Episcopalian. Uh huh.
McCain flipped on guns
Senator McCain supported the interests of the Gun Owners of America 100 percent in 2006.
Senator McCain supported the interests of the Gun Owners of America 0 percent in 2005.
Based on lifetime voting records on gun issues and the results of a questionnaire sent to all Congressional candidates in 2004, the National Rifle Association assigned Senator McCain a grade of C+ (with grades ranging from a high of A+ to a low of F).
McCain flipped on the virtues of Evangelical Leadership
McCain criticized TV preacher Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson as "agents of intolerance" in 2002, but has since "reconciled" and has cozied up quite a bit.
McCain flipped on the Law of Sea Convention
Long-time vocal supporter of the Law, now (just this last month) he's against it.
“Semi-fictional sob stories are easy to construct. 70%+ opposition to political bills is not. McCain’s Z-visa bill had that sort of opposition.”
YET THE MESSAGE THE ELITES WILL GET FROM A MCCAIN WIN IS THAT SUPPORTING AMNESTY WONT KILL YOUR CAREER, AND HENCE IS AN OKAY POSITION.
I hate to do the all-caps on something like this, but want to point out that it is the ‘elephant in the room’ here. By forgiving the ‘crime’ of supporting a massive amnesty for illegal aliens, we are saying that we don’t care much about that issue, and it will be just fine if McCain backstabs us again as President and signs that same bill.
If the GOP base, which is the heart of opposition to illegal immigration, ant get the gumption to find another candidate ... then we are truly and completely lost on this issue. yes, it is that bad if we let amnesty supporters win.
That may explain why Tancredo fell on his sword and endorsed Romney .... An anyone but McCain/Huckabee position.
Maybe its not the elephant in the room - maybe its the RINO in the room.
Practically the only thing the President will every really be able to do about abortion is to appoint strict constructionists to the courts. McCain is the leading saboteur of that effort in the Republican race.
If the choice you are facing is between Fred and Huck, vote Fred. That way you won’t get naive foreign policy, nanny state laws, with a possibility of judicial activists from the Right. Huck’s support in IA was 80% Evangelical. That won’t win the General.
“By my count on FR...The majority are Fred supporters, yet they aren’t showing up at the voting booth in Iowa or NH and he is consistently 3rd or 4th in the national polls. Where is the disconnect?”
This may be an oversimplification, but:
Freepers are looking for a conservative.
Voters are looking for a leader.
Fred vs the RINOs scores differently depending upon what you focus on.
Wow. Great list redgirl, I’ve been looking for some meat on McCain.
you are getting good at this, lot of good data points.
I think this is an important one ...
McCain flipped on Roe.
In NH in 1999 McCain told reporters that “in the short term, or even the long term, I would not support repeal of Roe v. Wade.” He explained that overturning Roe would force “women in America to [undergo] illegal and dangerous operations.” In 2006, campaigning for the GOP nomination as a conservative, McCain said the opposite.
LOL! I'll go out on a limb and predict a three way split of these states...
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