South Carolina isn't much different than Iowa on the Republican side with 50% of the GOP being evangelical. So anyone thinking Huckabee isn't one of the favorites along with McCain is engaged in wishful thinking.
Exactly why all of those states have moved their primaries forward and will continue to do so.
Iowa and NH - and open primaries with their free crossover voting - are almost irrelevent now in 08.
On February 6th we will see who is standing, and that process will begin tomorrow.
That is true, our party is a “Front runner” party, we know who are guy is pretty early in the process.
The only difference this time around is Super Feb 5th, we have never had that happen before.
If Fred, Duncan, Rudy, Mitt do not win either in MI or SC, they are on the bubble heading into Feb 5th....
Huck and McCain have the Mo right now, no question about it, SC is so important for Fred, he needs to win SC.
sorry sparky..... WJC lost the first 6 primaries in 1992, according to Terry McCaulie today. yes, he DID COME IN SECOND IN NH but he didn’t come in first in the first six primaries.
McCain is no front-runner in S.C. - last time around they didn’t much like him.
S.C. is Huckabee’s to lose, and it’s “finish strong or die” for Thompson....if Fred doesn’t manage to get into 2nd place there, preferably 1st...the only thing left is to hang around til the money runs out and hope McCain shoots himself somewhere along the way.
I’m not a supporter of the Huckster but the RCP average has him sitting on a double digit lead.
But when is the last time that the 1st-place winner in Iowa and New Hampshire were different candidates, and the same guy came in 2nd.
Didn't McCain beat George W. in NH in 2000? Then Bush went on to trounce him in SC. The Iowa winners have gone on to be the nominee more times than not, but not all the time. NH hasn't, in the last few election cycles. That's why I no longer consider either to be a bellwether state.