Posted on 01/12/2008 10:01:22 AM PST by jdm
If anyone films a documentary on the John McCain campaign, it ought to be George Romero. While the press had McCain as a dead man walking last summer, the Senator from Arizona has proven them all wrong -- and now looks as though he could sweep his way into Super Tuesday and the nomination. CNN has McCain taking a significant national polling lead, and he's jumped eight points above Rudy Giuliani in a Florida poll:
McCain has the support of 34 percent of registered Republicans in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey out Friday. That's a 21-point jump from the last CNN/Opinion Research poll, taken in December, well before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary earlier this month.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa Republican caucuses, is in second place in the new survey, with 21 percent of those registered Republicans polled supporting him for the GOP nomination.
Rudy Giuliani follows with 18 percent, a drop of six points from the December poll, when the former New York City mayor was the front-runner.
A few caveats are in order about the CNN poll. The sample isn't exactly sturdy. It only includes 397 registered Republicans, not likely primary voters. This doesn't make for a reliable predictive model, but at least one can see some trends that won't make the rest of the campaigns terribly happy.
One of those trends is voter enthusiasm. Among the entire Republican sample, McCain generates the highest amount of enthusiasm at 31%, and the lowest amount for dissatisfied and upset. Giuliani and Huckabee fall 10 and 11 points behind on enthusiasm, while Romney falls to the lowest enthusiasm number, 14%, among the top four candidates.
The Survey USA poll of Floridians looks more reliable, and the news remains good for McCain. They surveyed 502 likely Republican primary voters -- a stronger sample and one that is more predictive -- and found McCain in front of Rudy, 27%-19%. Huckabee and Romney tie at 17%, while Thompson comes in fifth at 8%. McCain takes all age groups but 18-34, and he wins 39% of black Republican votes (with Mitt a surprising second at 36%). Huckabee outdoes him in the panhandle and Romney on the Northeast, but McCain wins all of the other regions.
If McCain wins Michigan, he may build enough momentum to take Florida and all of its winner-take-all delegates. That will give him a lead and the momentum heading into Super Tuesday, and the potential to clinch the nomination. Rudy has to focus on his firewall if he wants to stop McCain from snatching the nomination with the cold-dead grip of a media-declared corpse, which is to say a lively candidate indeed.
While I disagree with him on a host of issues, that seems rather uncharitable. The man is a war hero.
As opposed to previous elections? :-)
I’m not seeing any poll numbers on the dems. Am I just missing them?
I will not vote for McCain in a primary or general election.
My vote will not be missed as illegals and RINO’s will fill in the gap.
Propping up McCain. I wish they’d do a little of that for Fred Thompson but just wait till the next SC poll comes out. Let us see where they will stand.
1996 and Bob Dole. What a RINO loser from Kansas. Thanks for the memories.
As it shapes up now, we have the potential of two frauds vying for the Presidency in the general. Not that this is unprecedented, but there usually has been at least one genuine candidate.
huh?
“would result in diminished (R) enthusiasm, stifled fund raising and slim turnout.”
would result in stifled fund raising?
The only GOP that has money now is Romney...and thats his own money.
I lot of people have already spoken with their checkbooks for this field.
Look at all the years that he has shown that he is ineffective. His own state is in a crisis of being overrun by illegals. He admitted publicly that Arizona is the state that has the biggest problem with illegals.
Years ago a voter would have laughed in his face. You had your chance and have failed to provide any solutions except amnesty.
McCain and Huckabee are 2 “Republicans” I will never vote for.
OMG. What a pathetic poll. Clinton News Netwrok, again trying to shape news with a poll, not report news.
What the article left out is that 50 of the 397 people surveyed were carrying a sign that said "Iron my Shirt". Apparently, they came in 2nd through #398 in a recent audition, and had nothing else to do. That's why they participated in a CNN survey.
These polls don’t mean anything, anymore! The PEOPLE are now beginning to speak. It is our turn! The MSM can pound sand if they don’t like who we choose or that we may choose to like to a pollster!
FRED THOMPSON - NATIONAL SECURITY EXPERIENCE (Ill protect the American people and American values, whatever it takes to stop the Islamic-Fascists including water-boarding!) - 2ND AMENDMENT ADVOCATE (Individual rights to protect their homes and property!)
INCREASE THE MILITARYS STRENGTH AND SIZE (Diplomacy through Strength and verification!)
SECURE AND SEAL THE BORDERS (Dont give sanctuary anywhere to illegals; dont employ illegals; dont rent to illegals; dont extend credit to illegals; dont give illegals rights they have no right to; report all crimes committed by illegals to ICE and immediately deport those illegals who have already committed crimes against America!) LAW AND ORDER (Enforcement of our current laws regarding illegal immigration!) DENY FEDERAL DOLLARS TO SANCTUARY CITIES (Enough is enough!)
CONSERVATIVE JUSTICES FOR SUPREMES (Great progress has been made on the Supreme Court in Bushs term. FRED was asked by President Bush to spirit Justice Roberts through the confirmation process. The next President will probably have the opportunity to seat two additional Justices. This is huge folks. FRED will nominate Justices who will interpret the Constitution, not create rights that simply do not exist and legislate from the bench!) PRO-LIFE ADVOCATE (will strive to nominate superior Justices with the eventual goal of overturning Roe vs Wade)
THOMPSON PLAN TO REDUCE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING (Check out his detailed plan to reduce Federal spending!)
SOCIAL SECURITY REFORMER (Social Security is an entitlement program that will soon overtake the budget. The program cant sustain itself and will bankrupt future generations; FRED has detailed proposals to save Social Security and provide the added benefit of private savings accounts for younger workers!)
DEFEAT ANY DEMOCRAT OR RINO (Close your eyes and imagine the first debate between FRED THOMPSON and ANY liberal DemocRAT they put up?)
TAX SIMPLIFICATION (Reform and perhaps eliminate the IRS with a variety of choice for the tax payer!)
EDUCATION (Return education to the States. It is that simple. The NEA is the greatest enemy of our educational system!)
WONT PUT UP WITH TRUTH MANIPULATION FROM THE DB-MSM (including stupid questions by liberal moderators, and purchased political pundits)
FRED THOMPSON IS THE WE THE PEOPLE CANDIDATE (We the People asked him to set aside his personal life and step up one more time for his Country and he stepped up!)
THIRD IN IOWA, SECOND IN WYOMING (MSM still calling it a tie with McCains name in the lead FoxNews wont even mention his name if they can find a way to avoid it!)
TOTAL DELIGATES TO DATE: 6
WINNER OF SOUTH CAROLINA JANUARY 10, 2008 DEBATE HANDS DOWN!!! (In lieu of the airtime FoxNews chose to give him or not give him as the case may be. WE THE PEOPLE notice garbage like that!)
IT’S NOT TOO LATE FOR MICHIGAN OR SOUTH CAROLINA OR FLORIDA OR NEVADA. CONSERVATIVES MUST UNITE NOW! A CONSERVATIVE THOMPSON REVOLUTION! ALL ABOARD THE THOMPSON VICTORY EXPRESS!
Never McCain - no, no, no! I’ll vote for anyone but him. The sponsor of the McCain-Feingold travesty against free speech is a pro-illegal amnesty, pro-stem cell research highly volatile wack job!
“Duke” Cunningham is a war hero as well but that does not excuse his actions as a Congressman. Republicans that oppose McCain are looking his record as Senator and not his military career.
If you are depressed about McCain, watch this and it will cheer you up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLQGWpRVA7o&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-zoPgv_nYg
Florida is winner take all? I did not recall that item.
This cannot really be happening ...i’m in stunned disbelief ...
Don’t forget the Huckster factor . Florida is going to be a mess ....
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