Posted on 01/14/2008 7:20:19 AM PST by jdm
Rasmussen has a somewhat more realistic picture of the Republican primary race than the New York Times/CBS poll that used a whopping 282 likely voters for its sample. McCain leads nationally by five points over Mike Huckabee, 24%-19%, while the rest of the field comes in a statistical tie for third place. However, the real news appears in the head-to-head matchup with Hillary Clinton, where the Democrat can't even muster 40% support:
A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds John McCain leading Hillary Clinton nationally by double digits. The survey, conducted on the two nights following New Hampshire’s Primary, shows McCain attracting 49% of the vote nationwide while Clinton earns 38%.
Among Republican voters, McCain leads 86% to 6%. However, among Democrats, Clinton’s lead is a slightly less dominant 74% to 18%. McCain leads by twenty-one points among unaffiliated voters.
This is the third straight poll showing McCain ahead of Clinton. In December, the Arizona Senator led by six points. In November, he held a narrow two-point edge.
The crosstabs have some eye-raising data for the Clinton campaign. Clinton loses women to McCain by four points and men by 19. Clinton loses the youth vote by 23 points, a rather amazing number, and only wins the 50-64 vote by a single point while losing all other age demographics.
Hillary scores strongly among blacks, but McCain holds 19%, which would almost double the support given to the Republican ticket in the 2004 election. McCain garners two-thirds of the Other ethnic demographic, presumably competitive among the Hispanic voters.
It's easy to consider this an anomaly based on enthusiasm after the New Hampshire win, but as Rasmussen points out, this trend started two months ago. As McCain strengthened among Republicans, he has strengthened against Hillary. Huckabee also has come out ahead of Hillary in this polling, 45%-42%, the first time that has happened all year. That appears to indicate that Huckabee and McCain have gained credibility from their early wins, while Hillary has gained none from her New Hampshire victory.
The Republicans may see some hope for the general election after all, and Hillary and the Democrats have some turbulence ahead of them. If they keep offering the message of non-specific change, they may lose another presidential cycle they should have won.
IF Rasmussen says so, then it’s the kiss of death.
I’m having trouble trusting polls lately. I think the Dems are “loading” the dice.
So What? I'm not falling for the "He's the only one that can beat Hillary" lie.
The polls just reflect the tone of TV news.
I hate McCain. Hate him. With a passion.
But I would vote for him against The Beast, the MadrassaBoy, or the BreckGirl. Without hesitation.
Well, if Thompson doesn’t catch fire, and if after super-Tuesday, we are not headed to a contested convention, McCain would be my choice among the “Kennedy Wing of the Republican Party” I think (Guilianni, Romney and McCain). We conservatives all need to take this to heart and get more involved so this never happens again. Save some money like in an old Christmas account to give at primary time so we can make a difference. Subscribe to conservative mags. Get involved at the local level so we have the tools in hand to help our conservative candidates.
Me neither. McCain is being propped up by the liberal media because he has no core support among Republicans. The Democrats will kill us on the turn-out-the-vote effort.
I’ll just note how many times in the past 25 years I’ve heard this kind of pronouncement....that in hindsight is clearly absurd.
Remember when Dukakis lead Bush by over 20 points in polls?
McCain appeals to independents who are therefore not republicans and not conservatives.
Meanwhile, conservatives hate Hillary so much that, at least in polls. they can’t bring themselves to pick her, so he POLLS well with conservatives.
But in fact, if they stay home, he will lose. All this proves is that if you get the conservatives to stick, the more liberal a candidate is, the more they can beat the democrat in a poll.
Peachy, I am glad I don’t have to vote for a guy I cannot stand.
He has already won!
Oh yeah, let’s run a tired old corrupt nutbag against a Rat woman or a young dynamic candidate. McCain would be Bob Dole redux.
But I would vote for him against The Beast, the MadrassaBoy, or the BreckGirl. Without hesitation.
Agreed. Very reluctantly, but agreed. I despise him - I don't think that he's tempermentally suited to be CINC (though he's got the experience and intellectual tools, to be sure), he gutted the 1st Amendment, would gut the 2nd if given the chance, his immigration stance is a disaster (and I DON'T believe that he's really changed it - he just tells us that he has, because he wants votes), he voted against tax cuts, cooperates with the most liberal Dems on almost anything (and when THEY smile, I'm off for the bathroom).
Nonetheless, I'll paraphrase Churchill: "McCain's the worst choice for President, except for all the Dems." Same goes, even more reluctantly, for Rudy.
This points out the critical task that the only real conservative with a chance in this race - Fred Thompson - has to accomplish in SC next week. A strong 2nd will put him on the media's map (they'll have no choice), but a surprise victory would be best. I hope that a lot of people in SC (and in Michigan, for that matter) were watching it, or at least got a .wmv of his zinger against the party-splitting Huckster.
If we conservatives don't want to choose between the Devil one the one hand, and one of her RINO minions on the other, then we have to vote, contribute to and work for Fred Thompson - NOW!
yes but the reason why mcCain has such strong support is because of the military factor. The war in iraq isn’t a problem
Honestly, since the polls screwed up so bad in NH, I lost interest in the whole lot of them. I figure my guess is as good as theirs so I quit reading polls .
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