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I'm Breaking Your Heart (35mpg goal impossible)
Forbes ^ | January 28, 2008 | Jerry Flint

Posted on 01/14/2008 11:38:25 AM PST by reaganaut1

Solving the energy problem is easy if you pay no attention to the laws of physics. That's the wonder of our Congress. To pass is easy; to achieve is something else. This is where I break your green heart. You know that Congress passed a law ordering all cars and trucks to average 35 miles to the gallon by 2020. It won't happen.

Another part of that law mandates the production of 36 billion gallons a year of biofuels by 2022. That won't happen either.

It's not that automakers [] are just mean and don't want to do it. They don't know how. Of course, they don't dare complain or criticize the law. We must all be green and happy about it.

But there's just no way anyone subject to the laws of physics and automobile engineering can get a 5,000-pound pickup, or any mass-produced, reasonably priced sport utility near that weight, up to 35mpg.

Today the 2008 Honda Accord (weighing 3,570 pounds) has poorer fuel economy than last year's model, and Honda is Mr. Green. That new hybrid system on the General Motors Chevy Tahoe SUV probably adds $10,000 to the cost (and 400 pounds) and gets it up to 20mpg. Yes, the fuel economy increase is terrific, near 50%--but we're up to only 20mpg on the four-wheeler, and that's nowhere near 35.

The best way to increase fuel economy (and reduce greenhouse gases, too) is to reduce the weight and engine size of the vehicles. Congress could pass a law ordering that no car weigh more than 1,750 pounds (a Toyota Camry is in the 3,200-pound range), no truck weigh more than 2,500 pounds and no engine run more than 75 horsepower. Most Americans couldn't fit in such cars, but they would average 35mpg.

(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: econuts
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To: TalonDJ
VW builds them light.

Not any more they don't, at least for the US market. You can't buy a VW here anymore that weighs less than 3000 lbs.

41 posted on 01/14/2008 12:33:42 PM PST by Fresh Wind (Scrape the bottom, vote for Rodham!)
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To: Trailerpark Badass

You are free to waste all the money you want on $3+ per gallon gas. Hey my second car is a Jaguar not exactly the most fuel efficient car know to man. I was just trying to say the free market will sort it out if gas prices stay high and the technology already exists to meet the standards set by Congress.


42 posted on 01/14/2008 12:33:59 PM PST by BubbaBobTX (I wasn't born in Texas but I got here as fast as I could.)
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To: reaganaut1; All

Harley-Davidson is a Green vehicle?

Bikers are environmentally friendly and will beat the poop out of anyone who says otherwise. (in an environmentally friendly beat the snot out of them way)


43 posted on 01/14/2008 12:36:01 PM PST by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: reaganaut1

It’s not impossible. As long as the folks in Congress do it first.


44 posted on 01/14/2008 12:37:11 PM PST by AppyPappy (If you aren't part of the solution, there is good money to be made prolonging the problem.)
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To: reaganaut1

If any Democrat gets elected this year, you can count on the return of the 55 mph national speed limit.


45 posted on 01/14/2008 12:38:18 PM PST by Fresh Wind (Scrape the bottom, vote for Rodham!)
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To: TalonDJ
For those out there that don't know, less heat in the burn = less efficient.

Ya ca'na beat the laws of physics capt'n

I think what you mean is that there's less thermal energy stored in ethanol per unit volume, as compared to gasoline or heavier petroleum-sourced fuels. That is true.

However, ethanol's lack of BTUs in the juice is at least partly offset by its behavior in an internal combustion engine, in which it acts like a high-octane gasoline. This enables engine designers to build engines with higher compression ratios and increased spark advance, and so scavenge more energy from the fuel.

There's more than one "law of physics" at work in the Otto Cycle engine, after all.

46 posted on 01/14/2008 12:39:11 PM PST by Oberon (What does it take to make government shrink?)
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To: BubbaBobTX

We get 18 mpg in our new Honda Pilot. Great vehicle.


47 posted on 01/14/2008 12:40:51 PM PST by Donald Rumsfeld Fan ("Sincerity is everything. If you can fake that, you’ve got it made." Groucho Marx)
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To: Donald Rumsfeld Fan
200 MPG big oil conspiracy!!!

48 posted on 01/14/2008 12:41:41 PM PST by evets (beer)
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To: reaganaut1
But there's just no way anyone subject to the laws of physics and automobile engineering can get a 5,000-pound pickup, or any mass-produced, reasonably priced sport utility near that weight, up to 35mpg.

Mr. Flint has been doing automotive reporting for 50 years, and thus his opinion carries some weight. He's got plenty of background. And he may well be right, that 35 mpg is unattainable.

The problem is, though -- what does the statistic even mean? 35 mpg of what? And is it really impossible to attain? Or is it more a question of rethinking the technology to attain fuel efficiency by different means?

I don't know the answers to any of those ... and I have to wonder whether Mr. Flint does, either. Could he be falling behind in the technological advances in modern engine design?

49 posted on 01/14/2008 12:44:13 PM PST by r9etb
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
I hear Hilary Clinton would design these fuel-efficient cars tomorrow...if she could!
50 posted on 01/14/2008 12:44:46 PM PST by Lou L
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To: BurbankKarl

...and there’s the Government’s angle...


51 posted on 01/14/2008 12:45:24 PM PST by Uriah_lost ("I don't apologize for the United States of America," -Fred D Thompson)
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To: BubbaBobTX

Diesel is cheating. Your wife’s car is spewing particulates that are no longer legal.


52 posted on 01/14/2008 12:45:51 PM PST by Palmetto
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To: Oberon
Check the Otto cycle again. The compression ratio is effected by the temperature ratio. The efficiency is directly related to the temperature differential. Which is bounded by the materials the engine is constructed out of. So is the compression ratio. Yeah you can offset some of the issue with design changes but not by much.
53 posted on 01/14/2008 12:48:52 PM PST by TalonDJ
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To: Poser

I am a big proponent of Nuclear energy as well. I say, why stop at 120%? We could use alot more, why? Well once you have enough relatively cheap energy, you can use electrolysis for hydrogen, and have that as a fuel. Heck, you could build a liquid molecule to use as fuel, from scratch... If only the greenie luddites would STFU..


54 posted on 01/14/2008 12:50:27 PM PST by Paradox (Politics: The art of convincing the populace that your delusions are superior to others.)
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To: TalonDJ

No, sorry, you obviously are conflating efficiency with lower heat content in the fuel.

The heat content of the fuel does not necessarily impact the thermal efficiency of the engine. In existing engines, the amount of ethanol in the fuel does not lower the efficiency of the engine. The lower heat content of the fuel does reduce the amount of work the engine can deliver per volumetric unit of fuel, but it doesn’t change the efficiency, if we hold all parameters of the engine constant between the two fuels.

It would be entirely possible to engineer an engine that uses a gasoline/ethanol blend that delivers more MPG than the current engines. All that is needed is to make effective use of the higher octane that ethanol delivers to the fuel to increase the compression ratio and increase the thermal efficiency of the engine. But Detroit won’t do that.

Consider this: there are more efficient gasoline engine designs out there. Consider the Miller Cycle engine as a starting point.

Who is putting Miller Cycle engines onto the market right now? There are at least two cars using Miller Cycle engines.

Neither one of them is built by a US car company.

Consider that the European auto companies are delivering very high MPG diesel autos to the consumer, and the US companies cannot seem to get their heads out of their rectums on the subject of diesels in cars. Pickups, where they are doing one-up contests with HP and torque, sure, they’re happy to do diesels. But four-place sedans and small cars? Nah. They cannot seem to get their heads out of their plump posteriors and realize that they could deliver on 35 MPG right now, with existing technology. They could deliver a gasoline-powered car with 35 MPG with existing technology.

But they won’t.

And pundits like Flint will give them cover for it — by claiming to know the “laws of physics” but in fact, not knowing anything about them at all.


55 posted on 01/14/2008 12:50:36 PM PST by NVDave
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To: reaganaut1
The carmakers of the world are testing an enormous range of systems: . . .plug-in hybrids that can be fueled at night at home; hydrogen engines, some working off fuel cells;

Cool. Coal-powered cars.

56 posted on 01/14/2008 12:53:15 PM PST by Tribune7 (Dems want to rob from the poor to give to the rich)
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To: r9etb
could he be falling behind in the technological advances in modern engine design?

Probably not. We are pushing the theoretical maximums that govern an Otto cycle engine. There are small changes that are helping but you can only get some much power out of a gallon of gas. At some point the only way to stretch that is to lighten up the car. For a given required weight and a given required horsepower (in the article he uses a standard truck) there is a maximum that you can do without a much bigger leap in technology than what we have been seeing.
57 posted on 01/14/2008 12:53:24 PM PST by TalonDJ
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To: r9etb; reaganaut1; All
Like it or not, America must become energy independent. If what we need to do, to get there happens to coincide with what some environmentalist wants, so what? :-)

It's not "business as usual." It is a matter of national security and national sovereignty.

58 posted on 01/14/2008 12:56:41 PM PST by unspun (Mike Huckabee: Government's job is "protect us, not have to provide for us.")
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To: RC2

Give California to Mexico.

Problem solved./s/


59 posted on 01/14/2008 12:58:10 PM PST by exit82 (How do you handle Hillary? You Huma her.)
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To: TalonDJ
I even have met engineers (computer) that bought it.

Heard the story about the three professors sharing a ride to lunch in a computer science prof's car? The car just quit dead in the middle of the street. "Looks like your timing belt broke" said the mechanical engineering prof.

"Aw, no", the EE prof replied. "I bet your ignition module burned out".

"Can't we just all get out and get back in again?" asked the computer science professor.

60 posted on 01/14/2008 12:58:27 PM PST by 19th LA Inf
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