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I'm Breaking Your Heart (35mpg goal impossible)
Forbes ^ | January 28, 2008 | Jerry Flint

Posted on 01/14/2008 11:38:25 AM PST by reaganaut1

Solving the energy problem is easy if you pay no attention to the laws of physics. That's the wonder of our Congress. To pass is easy; to achieve is something else. This is where I break your green heart. You know that Congress passed a law ordering all cars and trucks to average 35 miles to the gallon by 2020. It won't happen.

Another part of that law mandates the production of 36 billion gallons a year of biofuels by 2022. That won't happen either.

It's not that automakers [] are just mean and don't want to do it. They don't know how. Of course, they don't dare complain or criticize the law. We must all be green and happy about it.

But there's just no way anyone subject to the laws of physics and automobile engineering can get a 5,000-pound pickup, or any mass-produced, reasonably priced sport utility near that weight, up to 35mpg.

Today the 2008 Honda Accord (weighing 3,570 pounds) has poorer fuel economy than last year's model, and Honda is Mr. Green. That new hybrid system on the General Motors Chevy Tahoe SUV probably adds $10,000 to the cost (and 400 pounds) and gets it up to 20mpg. Yes, the fuel economy increase is terrific, near 50%--but we're up to only 20mpg on the four-wheeler, and that's nowhere near 35.

The best way to increase fuel economy (and reduce greenhouse gases, too) is to reduce the weight and engine size of the vehicles. Congress could pass a law ordering that no car weigh more than 1,750 pounds (a Toyota Camry is in the 3,200-pound range), no truck weigh more than 2,500 pounds and no engine run more than 75 horsepower. Most Americans couldn't fit in such cars, but they would average 35mpg.

(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: econuts
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To: cinives
My old VW Rabbit Diesel got 42 city and 57 highway.
I wish I still had that car for commuting.

Way back when, our department secretary had a Rabbit Diesel. One day she showed up late, having had to take the bus. She was madder then a wet hen too. It seems that the night before, as she arrived home her Rabbit had failed to stop running when she turned off the key. Not only did it keep running, it accelerated to higher and higher RPMs until the engine seized.

It turned out that the cylinder walls were scored enough that the oil control rings didn't maintain a seat and allowed crankcase oil to enter the combustion chamber. A Diesel being what it is, burned the oil and kept on running after the fuel was shut off. The longer it ran the more oil it burned and faster it went until all the lubricating oil was consumed (a mater of a few minutes!).

Bottom line, engine was a basket case and needed to be replaced. The punchline is, the car had just turned over 30,000 miles and Volkswagen refused any warranty coverage. They junked the car as a total loss. That was not an uncommon failure mode for the Rabbit Diesel.

Regards,
GtG

61 posted on 01/14/2008 12:58:29 PM PST by Gandalf_The_Gray (I live in my own little world, I like it 'cuz they know me here.)
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To: TalonDJ
Fact remains, the energy density of the fuel isn't the only parameter you've got to work with.

Why is it that drag racers turned to alcohol instead of No. 2 heating oil when they were looking for alternative fuels? It isn't because they wanted to handicap themselves with something that didn't work.

62 posted on 01/14/2008 12:58:42 PM PST by Oberon (What does it take to make government shrink?)
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To: unspun

Agreed. And actually ... I (like most folks) want a lot of what environmentalists want — the difference being that we, unlike the environmentalists, see the possibility of middle ground on environmental issues.


63 posted on 01/14/2008 12:58:51 PM PST by r9etb
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To: Intimidator
"I’ve always said that was the best way to fight terrorism is get off the middle eastern oil tit. If they’re broke, then no funds for terrorists."

Please research the phrase "fungible commodity" and get back to me. If we stop buying oil from Saudi Arabia, which is the only middle eastern country in our top 5 of crude oil import suppliers accounting for only 19.6% of volume, China and India will pick up the slack.


64 posted on 01/14/2008 12:59:13 PM PST by rednesss (Fred Thompson - 2008)
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To: edcoil

Ding, ding, ding! Give the man a prize. He has the correct answer.

This isn’t about about anything but a war on progress, freedom, and capitalism.


65 posted on 01/14/2008 12:59:40 PM PST by Pining_4_TX
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To: TalonDJ

It is more bounded by the “ping limit” - ie, the compression ratio at which you start to suffer pre-detonation. If you could get the fuel’s effective octane up high enough to allow you do increase the compression ratio, you could extract more of the heat/pressure out of the fuel with the piston’s downstroke.

This is why the Japanese are using the Miller Cycle, where you can use the turbo to increase the effective compression ration without running into a hard(er) ping limit by using late valve closure on the compression stroke, but have the longer power stroke.


66 posted on 01/14/2008 12:59:48 PM PST by NVDave
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To: TalonDJ
Eh... forget it. You're right. I've just been arguing for form's sake, and that's bad form.

[sigh]

67 posted on 01/14/2008 1:00:29 PM PST by Oberon (What does it take to make government shrink?)
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To: r9etb
Agreed. And actually ... I (like most folks) want a lot of what environmentalists want — the difference being that we, unlike the environmentalists, see the possibility of middle ground on environmental issues.

Right on. (But careful, you are sounding a kinda like Mike Huckabee. ;-)

68 posted on 01/14/2008 1:00:32 PM PST by unspun (Mike Huckabee: Government's job is "protect us, not have to provide for us.")
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To: RC2
I’ve often wondered what California will do when Detroit can’t meet their requirements. Will they not ship cars to California?

I've often wondered why automakers haven't already done that. Tell California to go pound sand.

69 posted on 01/14/2008 1:01:17 PM PST by meyer (Illegal Immigration - The profits are privatized, the costs are socialized.)
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To: BurbankKarl
TheyWe will pay the fines like for Mercedes-Benz and BMW do annually. Fines will be included in the cost of doing business.
70 posted on 01/14/2008 1:02:40 PM PST by listenhillary (A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take everything you have.)
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To: NVDave
The Miller cycle mainly just adds a supercharger. Whoopteedo. Detroit makes supercharged engines. Yeah, they up your compression ratio. They also cost more. Compression ratio is dependent on the heat content of the fuel being there to up your pressure. Pressure does not magically appear. For a given engine design gasoline delivers more of it. Period. Trucks are ALREADY being made with superchargers and other bells and whistles to up their efficency.
71 posted on 01/14/2008 1:03:37 PM PST by TalonDJ
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To: Eric in the Ozarks

My wifes Ford Escape gets 35 mpg in the city.


72 posted on 01/14/2008 1:03:39 PM PST by dangerdoc (dangerdoc (not actually dangerous any more))
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To: rednesss
dilbert cartoon

Lol - All too true

73 posted on 01/14/2008 1:04:21 PM PST by from occupied ga (Your most dangerous enemy is your own government, Benito Guilinni a short man in search of a balcony)
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To: TalonDJ

You just hit the nail on the head: we’re approaching the limits of the Otto cycle.

What is needed is an industry-wide rectal craniotomy wherein everyone realizes there ARE other engine designs OTHER than the Otto Cycle engine.


74 posted on 01/14/2008 1:06:46 PM PST by NVDave
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To: Poser

Hear hear!

Our energy policy should consist of starting 100 new nuclear plants immediately and using the environmentalists standing in the way for fill.


75 posted on 01/14/2008 1:06:51 PM PST by listenhillary (A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take everything you have.)
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To: reaganaut1

The new Toyota Highlander Hybrid (2 wheel drive) gets about 30 mpg city. It is a mid-sized SUV.

Toyota has been doing more than any other company with Hybrid. That is part of an answer to higher fuel mileage. They now have three models of Lexus with Hybrid.

And I recently saw mention of a large luxury sedan *(forgot the brand) with both turbo-diesel and hybrid.

Diesels with new Blue-Tec are now emmission compliant in all 50 states.

I would estimate a 3,200 lb. sedan with 1.4 liter turbo diesel, and small electric for hybrid could do 35 mpg right now. It is doable.

Maybe not for a 5,000 lb. truck or SUV, however. Not today.

But I think the targets are for fleet averages.

Thinking back over my adult lifetime, the history of this sort of thing. American companies moan, groan, say it can’t be done. So a foreign company does it first, gets sales, and fast forward to 2008 the former big three have lost a whole lot of market share.


76 posted on 01/14/2008 1:07:06 PM PST by truth_seeker
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To: reaganaut1

Americans are getting fatter so we need bigger and bigger cars.


77 posted on 01/14/2008 1:10:19 PM PST by barryg
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To: Oberon
Why is it that drag racers turned to alcohol instead of No. 2 heating oil when they were looking for alternative fuels? It isn't because they wanted to handicap themselves with something that didn't work.

Sure, there are a ton of factors in play. Which is why you fix things to a particular design. Drag racers have more options to play with.

Look, I am not an expert on this either. I am just sick and tired of hearing people that don't understand the math or design constraints (not you) that just want to spout conspiracy theories about 'big auto'. The fact is that if Ford came out with a much better engine than what Chevy head they would suddenly dominate the market. They have no vested interest in keeping cars inefficient and if they did better at that the market forces would reward them. I am sick and tired of hearing smart people claim they are sitting on some huge idea just to make a couple bucks on Mobil stock when they could move technology ahead a lightyear and we would all be driving 100mpg wonder machines. Utter garbage. My disgust over that leads me to over react. Still. I am betting the author knows more about engines than me or you or most of the other posters here. At the very least he certainly knows more than the congressional morons that wrote that energy bill. Lets just agree to diss congress.
78 posted on 01/14/2008 1:11:58 PM PST by TalonDJ
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To: RC2
OK.....so this means that when the time comes, Detroit will just stand there with their hands up and say “Now what?” I’ve often wondered what California will do when Detroit can’t meet their requirements. Will they not ship cars to California? And what will California do? I don’t think anyone knows.

Remember GM's EV-1? Remember "Who Killed the Electric Car"? Kalifornia passed a law about a decade ago mandating a certain percentage of a manufacturer's cars sold in that state be Zero Emission Vehicles. That is when GM started working on the EV-1 Lease program.

Eventually it was plain to even the CARB that no automaker would meet the zero emission requirement, so it was quietly dropped.

Same will happen with this 35 MPG CAFE limit, too.

79 posted on 01/14/2008 1:13:57 PM PST by Yo-Yo (USAF, TAC, 12th AF, 366 TFW, 366 MG, 366 CRS, Mtn Home AFB, 1978-81)
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To: Oberon
Why is it that drag racers turned to alcohol instead of No. 2 heating oil when they were looking for alternative fuels? It isn't because they wanted to handicap themselves with something that didn't work.

Since they are going to burn two or three gallons of fuel in a quarter mile, they are not all that concerned with mileage or efficiency. They want a fuel that burns at a lower temperature to keep the engine from destroying itself in the four or five seconds that it is running. They also add nitromethane to pack more oxygen into the cylinders allowing an overall richer mixture and thus greater output power.

Regards,
GtG

80 posted on 01/14/2008 1:16:10 PM PST by Gandalf_The_Gray (I live in my own little world, I like it 'cuz they know me here.)
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