Posted on 01/14/2008 5:37:35 PM PST by americanophile
Guess who's back? Ann Selzer, the only pollster who correctly predicted the massive turnout and nailed the outcome of the Iowa caucuses in her final survey for the Des Moines Register, now shows in her latest survey in Michigan for the Detroit Free-Press.
Selzer conducted polling for the Detroit Free-Press for the first time in 2006 and the results were equally impressive: Selzer's final poll had incumbent Democrat Jennifer Granholm beating Republican Dick DeVos by 13 points, 54 to 41. The final vote tally was Granholm 56, DeVos 42.
(I should note here that Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon also had Granholm winning by 14 points in his final poll of 2006, 52 to 38. Coker also has Mitt Romney leading John McCain by 8 points in his final survey of Michigan released this morning).
I spoke to Selzer briefly on Friday (before the Free-Press survey) and asked her how it was that she was able to see something in Iowa that other pollsters - and even the campaigns themselves - clearly missed.
"Our success was in keeping our hands off the data and not presuming ahead of time what we thought would happen," Selzer said.
Selzer noted that while some pollsters use modeling and weight results by party identification to try and better project the composition of the electorate, she does not. She said her secret is not to "mess with the data" and not to approach a survey with any preconceived notions about what voters think or what they might do.
"Once you start doing that," Selzer says, referring to such methods as weighting, "you're saying you know better than your data. You get results that look like the pollster's brain rather than a cross section of caucus goers." Selzer added there's "an arrogance factor" that accompanies methods like weighting which make assumptions about who will go to the polls and how they will vote.
So what advice does Selzer have for pollsters as we move through what appears to be a fluid election characterized by massive voter engagement? "Trust your data," she says."Build a methodology that you trust and get yourself out of the equation."
Selzer's methodology will again be put to the test on Tuesday in Michigan, where she says the dynamics of this year's race are "even quirkier than Iowa." Still, the Romney camp has to be invigorated by the result of the Free-Press survey, because these days it's extremely difficult to bet against Ann Selzer.
I prefer Romney over McCain, but Polls drive me nuts, The only poll that counts is the one at the voting booth.
"Guess who's back? Ann Selzer, the only pollster who correctly predicted the massive turnout and nailed the outcome of the Iowa caucuses in her final survey for the Des Moines Register, now shows Mitt Romney leading John McCain by 5 points in her latest survey in Michigan for the Detroit Free-Press."
I cannot see for the life of me why any thinking rational person would ever respond to a poll concerning their secret ballot.
Polls are for dumb people, and apparently we have a have lot of em in this country.
Mitt Ping!
Good news!
I’m watching Mr. Romney’s speech at the Detroit Economic Club on C-SPAN now. A truly special person.
I am not excited about any Pub candidates but, unless we are prepared to endure Hillary in Office, I think Romney is the only candidate who stands a chance. I know, I know, this flies in the face of polls showing very weak nationally but McCain is simply too old and has his own baggage that will make him an easy target in the General Election. IMHO
I share you opinion for the most part, although I think Romney is much more exciting, than what others seem to think. You are right about McCain at 71, I am not even sure he can withstand the campaigning til November.
God help us if Romney wins.
Who would you prefer... McCain?
He’s very quick with the responses to the questions from the audience. I wish everyone could see this display, it would change a lot of minds.
Isn’t this a couple days old?
“I am not even sure he can withstand the campaigning til November.”
Yeah, abd that growth on the left side of his face is ominous isn’t it.
Posted today on Yahoo! news
Mr. Romney has been called the best businessman in the country. He has shown success after success (in both the private and public sectors). He is my first choice because of his past success, his character, and his experience in both the private and public sectors. He quietly keeps getting endorsement after endorsement. I think he is what this country needs, and he is deserving of the opportunity to try. Unfortunately, many Americans love the “populist” message of the dems and some GOPers.
If this is true it will be harder for the RAT vote for McQueeg to overcome the 5% Republican vote for Mitt.
Good evening to you, Mr. Bates. :-)
Ask me tommorrow after 7 am when the polls open.
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