Posted on 01/20/2008 9:46:01 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Where Now From Here?
The South Carolina primary turned out to be a clarifying event after all. Instead of the potential for five front-runners in the Super Tuesday contest in two weeks, it appears we will have at best three viable candidates for the nomination, and only if Rudy Giuliani proves his strategy correct by winning Florida. What will be left will be the three candidates that the conservative blogosphere has relentlessly criticized for their lack of lifelong fealty to the Ronald Reagan legacy, but whom voters have nevertheless trusted enough to support in the primaries.
First, the failure of Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson to win in South Carolina signals the end of their campaigns, whether they recognize it or not, especially for Fred. He made South Carolina his explicit firewall, the place where he had to have a great showing in order to retain credibility as a candidate. A third-place finish among one of the most conservative groups of voters in the primaries does not bode well, nor does the fact that he actually placed fourthamong self-professed conservatives in the CNN exit polls. He became the first "front-runner" to fail to win a must-win contest, and he will likely withdraw sooner rather than later.
Huckabee's dream took a beating last night. The Arkansas governor should have won the first Southern primary, especially given the high numbers of evangelicals turning out for the election. He took 43% of them, but McCain got 27% to mostly negate Huckabee's big advantage. His populist rhetoric ran out of steam in the Palmetto State, and although he made it close, he failed to convert. And if Huckabee can't win in South Carolina, where else can he win? What is his path to the nomination? Without the kind of name recognition that McCain has or the money that Romney and Giuliani can command, he's probably reached the end of the line as well. He'll stay in the race and collect delegates from proportional contests, but he won't win a significant state.
That leaves Romney and McCain, and possibly Giuliani. Rudy needs Florida to keep the delegate gap from getting too large and to maintain credibility in the large coastal states that could carry him to the nomination. All three of these candidates have significant issues with the party's base, McCain most of all -- and yet these are the three left standing as the smoke begins to clear.
My e-mail sounds the frustration of this situation. Messages and comments on the blog have become filled with declarations of sitting on hands, the destruction of the party, and so on. However, the plain fact is that the actual party -- the people voting for the candidates -- have made it clear that they have a high level of comfort with Romney and McCain, and potentially Rudy as well.
I'm actually a lot more optimistic than most about the result. If these three contend for the nomination, we have two candidates who employed conservative principles in very liberal settings as executives and showed remarkable success, and a Senator who at least understands the nature of the conflict of this age and knows how to fight it. All of them have more applicable experience than any of the Democratic candidates, and perhaps more than all three of them combined.
Rather than focus on the negatives, the Republicans still left to vote should focus on the positives. Which of these three can lead this nation in war, can implement conservative policies on economics and foreign policy, and work to reduce spending and taxes in meaningful ways that expands liberty rather than constraining it? Which of them have actually done this successfully, and which can use that experience in a general election to beat either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?
From where I sit, I'd say we have good candidates, any of which are easily supportable by Republicans in a general election. Instead of declaring that the sky is falling, let's keep our eyes on the prize. These are the candidates that have resonated with the voters, and so these are the choices. The party only disintegrates if we keep wishing for a resurrection of Ronald Reagan rather than working pragmatically to find the best in what we have.
No it does not.
But I still look with interest to the primaries where democrats and 3rd party liberals are not able to vote republican.
Not that I hold great hopes for our conservative movement, but at least a further clarity will be forthcoming.
Others differ, of course; but I didn't expect Morrisey to.
Maybe FRed won't quit. I hope not.
The SC GOP REALLY blew it. Fred was our best hope of keeping Klintoon out of the WH. I am hoping against hope that the other southern states will come to there senses ... otherwise this republic is in very serious trouble
It leaves me hoping that Fred remains in longer than Huckabee and that he starts winning. It leaves me wondering who will run in 2012 if Fred drops out.
I really looked forward to someone with FRed's views and temperament in the White House. I dunno about the other states coming to their senses; I fear that we are headed down the slope.
"Hey! Where are we going? And why am I in this handbasket??"
Well said.
Trouble is the Republican moderate coalition that allowed crossover voters in the critical early primaries.
I suspect things may have turned out somewhat differently if the order of primaries was different, or if we didn’t allow crossover voters in any states.
Just a thought.
No question that Huckabee’s fake evangelism damaged Fred.
But he’s still the only conservative in the race. If he drops out, the party is cooked.
Huckabee is such a jerk, he may not see the handwriting on the wall. He can’t possibly win, but his inflated ego may possibly keep the best candidate from winning. It’s too bad that the party pros have allowed this fiasco to get this far.
In any case, Fred is still the only conservative left standing. He’s got to hold on and hope for a deadlocked convention, or an implosion of one or two of the feckless “leaders,” or we’re screwed.
Folks,
Two Voting Principles for 2008 :
STAND WITH FRED WHEN HE’s STILL STANDING.
STAND WITH A REPUBLICAN IN THE GENERAL ELECTIONS IN ORDER TO PREVENT SOCIALISM FROM ACCELERATING.
This will be the dirtiest campaign in memory, I would rather find some kind of common ground then have them take control.
If the Beastess takes power we can be guaranteed to have:
*Another two or three Ruth Bader Ginsberg’s on the SCOTUS.
*Near filibuster proof control of the COTUS.
*The return of the Fairness Doctrine for the public airways and regulation of speech on the Internet.
*Federal funding of abortions on demand.
*Investigations of faith based institutions.
*Higher taxes.
*Amnesty for illegal immigrants.
Felons having their right to vote restored
etc, etc, etc.
I will legally do just about anything to keep that from happening.
When Fred supports McCain, will you see it as a betrayal?
take your pick:
Queeg...gawd
Mitt....now my first choice maybe
Huckster....don’t like his populism/open borders but loathe what he brings out in condescending prejudiced FReepers
Rudi.....his brass is nice but his politics aren’t.....if he were scourged and tempered Biblically maybe...do we have 40 days spare time to send him to say the Mojave?
I think Rudi like Thompson will be studied one day as to how not to run for President of the United States
My choices now....all about as fun as a rubbing alcohol on anal fissures:
Mitt
Huckster
Rudi
Queeg
this election will ensure the Mexicanization of America...it may be celebrated one day in Spanglish here
Yep.
> STAND WITH A REPUBLICAN IN THE GENERAL ELECTIONS IN ORDER TO PREVENT SOCIALISM FROM ACCELERATING.
That won't prevent it.
Why run a liberal Republican? THEY'LL LOSE AGAINST A LIBERAL DEMOCRAT. HELLO??? Voting for a liberal Republican is an exercise in futility.
Voting for "Republican because they've got an (R)" is only going to encourage the RNC to keep running liberals.
Force the issue. Turn it around. Maybe it'll take a couple of elections. So what if it does?
Take the long view. America is worth taking time to get this stuff right.
“My choices now....all about as fun as a rubbing alcohol on anal fissures:”
Ouch. Man that was vivid...I could have done without that. LOL
:-)
Ditto!!!
Buck. It. Up.
I, for one, am becoming one of those “hand sitters.”
Here’s the thing, if Romney or McCain are the nominee we have effectively eliminated a conservative agenda from being a necessary aspect of the nominee for the GOP. McCain is more like a real conservative in his voting record than Romney, of course, but his obvious lack of interest in the Constitution, his so-called “maverick” streak, his unbalanced desire to be loved by the media... all those things will lead him down the road to center left policies. His open borders stance and his mostly muddled record on the war on terror (his “torture” positions) is also quite a strike against the conservative agenda. As to Romney, well he is just a plain liar that he is conservative. The man simply cannot be believed. And if you don’t like what he’s saying today, why he’ll change it tomorrow to suit you better. His record is of an anti-Reagan, abortion supporting, big government loving, center-left politician. There is no reason to expect he’ll be any different in the future than his record proves... quite despite what he says today or how he changes and spins it tomorrow.
Of course, the main argument for voting for them anyway is the judge question. Some say that the judges that McCain and Romney might put on the bench would surely be better than what a Hillary might put there. But, the difference would be so marginal, in my opinion, that destroying our principles to vote for either of these men isn’t worth it.
We have to remember that Hillary would not have a blank check and if she might become president, her negatives among the country might easily prevent her from being as bad as we all fear. Plus, her in office would spur the conservatives to oppose her. On the other hand, McCain or Romney would have little impediment to put their bad choices on the bench or their liberal policies in place.
A McCain or Romney presidency will materially weaken the GOP in general and the conservative movement in particular.
So, I cannot see my way to vote for either of these two men. I cannot be responsible for putting them in office. Let the left be responsible for the new Carter era. Not us. Let conservatives come in to save the country and strengthen our movement in 2010 and 2012.
Quite the analogy
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.