Posted on 01/20/2008 12:49:04 PM PST by randita
Analysis: Obama's Age Gap: Is It Race?
Jan. 19, 2008(CBS) This analysis was written by CBSNews.com Editorial Director Dick Meyer.
Now that Democrats have voted or caucused in three states in three different parts of the country, it appears there is one crucial voting bloc that will not support Barack Obama: older Americans.
Obama was able to overcome a consistent age gap in Iowa because of an unusually high turnout by young voters who supported him overwhelmingly. And he may be able to carry South Carolina, where roughly half the Democratic primary voters are expected to be African-American.
But Obama’s weak performance so far among older voters substantially increases the odds against him scoring big victories in the slew of states voting on February 5th, "Super Duper Tuesday."
Hillary Clinton has dominated among voters of a “certain age.”
In Iowa, Clinton grabbed 45 percent of the 65 and up while Obama took just 18 percent. In New Hampshire, she won 48 percent to 32 percent. Among voters 60 and older in Nevada, Clinton mopped up with a stunning 60 percent to Obama’s 31 percent.
Nationally, Clinton led Obama 44 percent to 18 percent among voters over 65 in a CBS New/The New York Times poll taken January 9-12.
This could be Hillary Clinton’s secret recipe for success. That’s because older Americans turn out to vote.
Voters over 65 were a solid 22 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in Iowa.
But in Nevada, a dazzling 36 percent of the primary voters were over 60. Turnout for the caucuses was huge. Nearly a third of the state’s registered Democrats participated. All Democrats, even the over-65 crowd, are unusually motivated this year - not just the young voters Obama has energized.
Clinton has solid support among other populations, especially women and voters down the income ladder. But Obama has had at least some success with those groups. In Iowa, he carried women 35 percent to 30. And voters earning less than $50,000 a year preferred Obama 34 percent to 32 percent.
Before real voters began casting real votes, it was natural to wonder if older Americans were more ready to consider a woman president or a black president. It appears that the answer is in and it is to Hillary Clinton’s advantage.
In the CBS News/New York Times national poll, 94 percent of respondents said they were ready to vote for a black candidate for president. But when asked if “most people” they knew were ready to make the same choice, only 71 percent said yes.
When asked if the whole country was ready to elect a black president, just 54 percent said yes. By contrast, 65 percent said the country was ready to elect a woman president.
There is no reliable way to tell exactly what role race has played in the voting decision of older Americans. Older voters might also be expected to place a higher premium on experience. Whatever the reasons, the pattern of voting behavior so far is clear.
It is a pattern that could be a key to making Hillary Clinton the first female presidential nominee in American history.
Sorry if this was already posted. I did a thorough search and didn't find it.
The MSM has been having a rough time with this . There is racism at play and it is all within the democrat party . The MSM can not possibly cover these stories objectively .
There’s no doubt at all that racism is a factor, and the Clintons are playing as close to it as they can get away with.
By the way, what vast experience is it that Hillary is bringing to the White House? A few years in the senate?
Cause that’s all she’s got.
We know why so many did in 2000. They wanted Gore to win and therefor they voted for McCain in the belief that he was a lot easier for Gore to defeat. Gore had the nomination sewed up before there was a caucus or primary. In 2000 there was zero doubt that Gore would clobber Bill Bradley in the primaries and he did.
But this year we have real contests in both parties. Why would an independent who was planning to vote for the Democrat in the fall election vote in the Republican primaries? Independents has ranged between 20 and 30 percent of Republican primary voters.
If Independents are for Hillary why not vote for her when she really needs their votes. And if Independents are for Obama why not vote for him when he really needs their votes.
Could it be that independents don't care who wins the Democratic nomination? How could that be?
Could a big chunk of Indpendents have decided they can't vote for Hillary or Obama in the general election?
What would that mean? It most likely means they are either not going to vote or they are going to vote for the Republican nominee and are trying to get the most leftist Republican nominee they can.
Those that think the fall election looks good for either Hilary or Obama, need to explain why no one talks about Independents voting in the very contested Democratic primaries.
How to handle your man?
Yes. Older people went through school before the brainwashing. Younger people have been brainwashed to think it's "cool" to vote for a black guy, whether he's qualified or not.
If she were treating her man the right way he might not have gone astray so often — if you get my drift.
Look up Chris Rock’s comments on the Lewinsky affiar and how it was Hillary’s fault — really funny.
Presidential elections seem to be about who can capture the votes of the 20% who truly consider themselves independents with no political allegiance. As a candidate, you can't win with only the 40% or so who vote party line. You need at least half of those independents.
You're on to something that perhaps those 20% will not vote for either Hillary or Obama in the general. And a fair amount of them seem willing to vote for one or more of the GOP candidates.
Obama gets the Prius vote.
The main reason people drive a Prius is so they can make a statement and project a certain image. Hey! I drive a Prius! I care about the environment. I’m progressive.
Those are the Obama voters. See? I voted for the black guy. Look how progressive and politically correct I am.
99 percent of these voters probably haven’t done any research and have absolutely no idea what they are really voting for, other than change.
How to handle your man?
If she knew how to handle her man she wouldnt have been in the situation she enabled.
There are lots of groups of people who will not vote for a Black president, but I don’t see older people as necessarily falling into that demographic. Hispanics will not vote Black (one even stood up at during the Lutz focus group and declared this), many Koreans and other Asian groups, who have suffered in Black neighborhoods, won’t vote for a Black man either.
The reasons that Obama is not doing well with older voters is probably because many older voters are better informed and not basing their votes on such superficial attributes as race.
Geez I thought that I could forgo the /S
Has nothing to do with race. Older Black men on TV have said the same thing: they don’t think Obama is experienced enough for the job. The MSM.... Now I see why other nations nationalize their mass media. These idiots purposely stir the pot and try to foment tension and division.
Maybe Obama isn’t doing well with older voters because people don’t want some twirp younger than their child as President. The thing I don’t understand is why Dems constantly try to get the youth vote, when the youth don’t. Old people are the ones to get.
Please. Asians create plenty of crappy neighborhoods complete with gangs on their own.
We moved from our last neighborhood when the swat team came out for the Asian family up the block.
You misunderstood, I never said that Asians were any less problematic than the Blacks, just that there is great antipathy between the races.
My mistake. Sorry!
No, it's WISDOM. Old people know that if elect a guy for President, who three years ago was a lackluster State Senator who was either absent or voted "present" for the majority of votes, than America will be sunk.
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